Earlier this offseason, we released, which takes the work done by the Jimmy Johnson trade chart from the 1990s and updates it to reflect current pick-for-pick trades made in the market in recent years. In that article, we also laid out different trade packages the QB-needy teams in the top 10 would have to put together to get to No. 1. The Panthers , giving up No. 9, No. 61, a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder and DJ Moore.
Our trade chart doesn't account for player values, but by tallying the picks part of the equation, we can determine the value of Moore on the trade chart when considering the range of interest in the No. 1 pick, a wrinkle we added to the chart this year. The total to make up the gap to the value of the No. 1 pick from what the Panthers gave up in picks is between the 15th (medium interest in No. 1) and 28th (low interest in No. 1) overall picks of this year's draft. Considering A.J. Brown cost the Eagles No. 18 and No. 101, a package we value around the 15th pick, and the Ravens-Cardinals deal put Marquise Brown's value at around the 29th overall pick, our range for Moore looks pretty in line with the market for receivers last year.
But the trade for No. 1 is done and dusted, with all that's left on that front is speculating who the Panthers will take with the top pick. On the trade front, we turn our attention to the No. 3 overall pick, where the Arizona Cardinals have the opportunity to move down in the draft for a package of picks with a franchise quarterback in place in the form of Kyler Murray.
Trading to No. 3
Unlike with No. 1, we won't deliver a range of outcomes for a pick trade, but it's important to consider that quarterback trades at the top of the draft could lead to bigger packages than expected. The 49ers' deal for No. 3 in 2021, which they used on Trey Lance, exceeded our baseline for the No. 3 pick by about 46 points, or roughly the value of the 83rd pick in the draft. The Jets paid an even bigger premium to move up for Sam Darnold in 2018, exceeding the No. 3 baseline by about 146 points, which roughly equates to the 37th pick in the draft. It wouldn't be shocking to see the team that jumps to No. 3 pay a premium that falls only slightly short of the Jets deal depending on its level of desperation or competition for the pick.
We're going to break down several potential trade candidates for No. 3 below, starting with the team at No. 4.
The Colts have cycled through veteran quarterbacks the last few years with little success, and now may be the right time to turn to the draft for their next signal-caller. If they don't want to settle for whomever is left at No. 4, they could strike a smallish deal to move up one spot a la the Mitchell Trubisky trade in 2017, which would still allow the Cardinals to have their choice of the non-QBs in the draft.
- Colts receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 4, No. 164, 2024 second
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders parted ways with longtime quarterback Derek Carr this offseason. His release put Jarrett Stidham on top of the depth chart at quarterback, though Josh McDaniels almost certainly isn't done making moves.
- Raiders receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 7, No. 71, 2024 first
The Falcons drafted Desmond Ridder in the third round last year, but he didn't show enough to ensure he's going to be the franchise quarterback moving forward. The franchise also has a conditional 2024 pick that could end up as high as the second round based on what happens with Calvin Ridley and the Jaguars, which could make trading a premium pick next year more palatable.
- Falcons receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 8, No. 76, No. 114, 2024 first
The Titans could be entering rebuild mode with rumors surrounding Derrick Henry potentially being a trade candidate. That could put them a year or two away from targeting a quarterback, but if they instead believe they're a QB away from returning to the top of the AFC South, it's possible they'll look to strike a deal.
- Titans receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 11, No. 42, 2024 first, 2024 third
New York Jets
All the speculation with the Jets at quarterback centers around Aaron Rodgers, but if he ends up remaining in Green Bay, the team could then turn toward making a big move up to No. 3 for a quarterback for the second time in six years. It's also possible the Jets could knock down the price a little by including Elijah Moore, similar to the Bears-Panthers deal (though he's unlikely to be valued anywhere near Moore). The roadmap for a trade around this pick was also put in place by the 49ers two years ago if the Jets dip more into the future
- Jets receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 13, 2024 first and either 1. No. 44 and No. 75, or 2. 2024 third, 2025 first
The Commanders are set to enter the new league year with Sam Howell as their QB1, though he's certainly no lock to remain atop the depth chart by the time September rolls around.
- Commanders receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 16, No. 98, No. 119, 2024 first, 2025 first
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unless Tom Brady changes his mind about retiring again, the Bucs have work to do at the quarterback position.
- Buccaneers receive: No. 3 overall
- Cardinals receive: No. 19, No. 83, 2024 first, 2024 third, 2025 first