2021 NFL Draft: The best props and parlays to make money on in tonight's draft

Hey, everybody, Happy Draft Day! Not only is it great to be back after taking the last two days off, but to be returning on the night the NFL Draft begins is even better, which is why today's newsletter is related to the NFL Draft and the NFL Draft only. Sure, I've still got DFS advice for you in the NBA, but I'm not watching basketball tonight, nor will I be watching baseball.

I'll be watching the NFL Draft. You will be too.

Before we get to the rest of today's letter, I'd like to thank Chris Bengel for filling in for me. It's a shame Chris missed the memo about how we fade the Mets when Jacob deGrom starts, but hopefully, he has learned his lesson and will now join the legions of millions who make up #OperationFadeGrom.

And now these picks are on the clock!

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

The NFL Draft, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN/NFL Network
The Pick: Justin Fields to be the third overall pick (+750) -- Maybe I'm just a stubborn fool, but I refuse to believe that the 49ers traded away everything they did to get up to No. 3, with the goal being to take Mac Jones or Trey Lance. It's nothing against either of them, as they're both fine NFL prospects. I know I've been a fan of Mac Jones since I first saw him step in for Tua Tagovailoa in college, and even when so many of my college football colleagues were ready to hand Alabama's starting QB job over to five-star phenom Bryce Young, I told them to hold off. Mac Jones was more than capable of leading that offense.

But I never envisioned him as the third pick of the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, Lance has hardly played football in the last year and is talented but extremely raw. He also played at the FCS level against lesser competition, which is another factor that makes it difficult to project who he can be. Then there's Fields. The guy who was just as highly-rated as a recruit coming out of high school as Trevor Lawrence once. Many talent evaluators thought Fields was the better of the two, and most believe he's the more naturally talented.

There have been so many smoke screens coming from San Francisco to throw everyone off the scent that it's impossible to know what's truth and what isn't, but most of that smoke has been about Jones or Lance in the last week. That makes me trust it even less, so I'm taking a flyer here on the guy I believe is the second-best QB in this draft class.

Key Trend: The three highest-rated QB recruits in the history of 247Sports recruiting rankings are Vince Young, Trevor Lawrence ... and Justin Fields.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Sportsline's R.J. White broke down the entire first round in his mock, and included his best props for each pick. Including what he thinks will happen at No. 3.

💰 More NFL Draft picks

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T - Ohio State v Alabama — Getty Images

The Pick: Patrick Surtain to be first defensive player drafted (-120) -- There's been speculation that we might not see a defensive player go in the top 10 tonight, and while I can't rule out the possibility, I don't think it's likely. With the NFL becoming more pass-heavy than ever before, we've seen edge rushers and cornerbacks become more important too. I would be stunned if we didn't see at least one go in the top 10, if not more, and of the two positions, I think corner has the most enticing prospects this year.

The way I look at it, the Lions, Panthers, Broncos and Cowboys are all in the market for a corner. Then there are teams like the Eagles and Saints who could trade up to land one as well. Somebody is coming for a corner, and of the players available, the consensus seems to be that Surtain is the No. 1 CB on most boards.

Key Trend: There were two corners selected in the top 10 last season, and six went in the first round. That's a trend I expect to continue in the near future.

The Pick: Chicago Bears to use first pick on a WR (+275) -- I have seen mock drafts connecting the Bears to an offensive tackle in the first round, with Oklahoma State's Teven Jenkins being a popular pick, but I don't see it happening. I have good reason: Ryan Pace has never shown the desire to draft offensive linemen early. Since taking over as general manager of the Chicago Bears in 2015, he has selected seven offensive linemen, with none being chosen in the first round. He drafted two in the second round (Kansas State's Cody Whitehair and Iowa's James Daniels), but four of the seven have come in the fifth round or later.

Before coming to the Bears, Pace was the Director of Professional Scouting and Director of Player Personnel for the New Orleans Saints from 2007 to 2014. In that time, the Saints drafted nine offensive linemen, and none were taken in the first round. Only one -- USC's Charles Brown in 2010 -- was taken in the first two rounds. The other eight were all third round or later.

I think it's more likely the Bears move up to draft a QB than they stay at 20 and take an OL, but if they don't trade up, I'm quite confident they'll take a receiver. This is a front office and a coaching staff whose jobs are on the line, and they missed out on landing a top QB this offseason, so they're going to look for other ways to improve their offense.

Key Trend: The Bears GM has never been a decision-maker in a front office that took an offensive linemen in the first round

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: NFL Draft expert R.J. White has revealed his top prop bets, including a massive 50-1 long shot play.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Building Blocks

PG: Stephen Curry, Warriors
SG: Andrew Wiggins, Warriors
SF: Kevin Durant, Nets
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Value Plays

PG: Killian Hayes, Pistons
SG: Hamidou Diallo, Pistons
SF: Kevin Porter, Rockets
PF: Aaron Gordon, Nuggets
C: Kevon Looney, Warriors

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.