Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the Cincinnati Reds.
1. Noelvi Marte, 3B (22 years old)
- Top-25 ranking: No. 14
- The short version: Usability questions plague innate physical traits.
- MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
CBS Sports has and will continue to be higher on Marte than most shops because of the notion that it's easier to teach a batter how to lift the ball than it is to teach him how to strike the ball with authority. Predictably, Marte can really sting the ball. His 115.6 mph maximum exit velocity placed him in a virtual tie with Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso. The catch is that the only qualified batter with a lower average launch angle than Marte's 1.9 degrees was Pirates utility player Ji Hwan Bae. There are two paths forward for him: either he learns to lift the ball, or he tries to emulate the likes of Yandy Díaz, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich -- all of whom had great years with average launch angles below six degrees. The former scenario is more intriguing, and could result in him launching 30-plus home runs a pop. The latter path, meanwhile, could lead to a perfectly fine career, too. Either way, we believe.
2. Rhett Lowder, RHP (22 years old)
- The short version: Polished mid-rotation starter who should move quickly.
- MLB ETA: Late 2024
Lowder, the No. 7 pick in July's draft, did not make his professional debut after throwing a career-high 120 innings for Wake Forest. He should be good to go come spring, and from there he has a chance to reach the majors within the season. Lowder's arsenal and delivery are about as optimized as it's going to get thanks to the Demon Deacons' best-in-class biomechanics lab, complete with a pair of low-90s fastballs and a good changeup. He has a history of throwing strikes, and there's no developmental reason to hold him back. If there's a single drawback to Lowder's game, it's that scouts were skeptical he had any room for additional growth. That's not a problem if you're OK with a top-10 maxing out as a mid-rotation starter -- clearly the Reds were fine with it -- but some clubs desire more star potential.
3. Connor Phillips, RHP (22 years old)
- The short version: Good stuff, bad command.
- MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
Originally acquired from the Mariners in the trade that sent Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker to the Pacific Northwest, Phillips reached the majors last season and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 20 innings. (Just, um, ignore the ERA and walk rate.) In terms of pure stuff, Phillips has a fantastic one-two punch in his 96 mph riseball and mid-80s sweeper. He also throws a curveball that featured nearly 11 inches of induced vertical break, putting him close to Rich Hill territory. The drawback to Phillips' game is his command. His back elbow tends to get high, a red flag so far as location goes, and he's reliably walked more than 10% of the batters he's faced throughout his career. For reference, only five qualified starters walked that many last season in the majors (though that included NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell). Phillips should get the chance to join that group in 2024.
