Going into the 2023 season, Fantasy Football analysts started to come around to the idea that there may be some benefit in drafting a QB early. This was a big change, as most of the advice of the past decade had been built around finding value late at the position. In 2023, QBs had one of their worst years collectively, which may have motivated everyone to wait on drafting the position again. That may be a mistake.
What I love about the position this year, is that we have options. There is most certainly an elite tier of QBs, with most analysts putting Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson in Tier 1. There's also a strong middle class with upside rushers like Anthony Richardson and classic pocket passers like Jared Goff. And there are plenty of gems late, as you'll see in the sleepers section below. This creates a kind of choose-your-own-adventure at the position, though I will break down my favorite draft strategy below.
One thing that will determine just how deep the position is, is how the older QBs bounce back. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins are both attempting to come back from Achilles injuries, while Russell Wilson is attempting to bounce back from getting benched by Sean Payton. If those three are borderline QB1s this year, then this could be the deepest the position has ever been.
Below you'll find my QB draft strategy, sleepers breakouts and busts for the position, projections, tiers, and more. Let's start with the strategy.
QB draft strategy
I am not letting a down year at the position influence my view of that elite tier I mentioned above. While I don't plan on being the first team to draft a QB, I am very interested in taking any of the Tier 1 QBs late in Round 3 or early in Round 4. I also know that a lot of you won't get that choice, although QBs are going later than normal according to our ADP.
If I miss that elite tier then, based on the current ADP, there's a decent chance I am waiting until the double-digit rounds and drafting multiple passers. There are two exceptions to that rule; Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray. Both Prescott (Round 7) and Murray (Round 8) have ADPs that will tempt me if they fall even a little bit. If they don't I am pairing a safe veteran like Jared Goff with an upside youngster like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, or Trevor Lawrence.
In Superflex, it is difficult to be that selective. More often than not, I will select a QB in Round 1 in that format, as I believe that nine of the top 12 picks in that format should be QBs. But I am comfortable waiting a while on my second quarterback, especially if passing touchdowns are worth less than six points. How many quarterbacks I draft in that format is dependent on the quality of my starters. If I land two top-18 passers and a backup like Baker Mayfield with job security, I am fine with three quarterbacks. If my starters have more question marks, like the rookies or Russell Wilson, I will draft at least four QBs.
Now let's take a look at the breakouts, sleepers and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are heavily influenced by ADP, and for this version, we're using CBS ADP:
4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing are within the realm of possibility for Anthony Richardson. So are double-digit rushing touchdowns. Honestly, it's hard to imagine a situation where he stays healthy and doesn't break out. He really impressed me with his pocket presence last year and he's one of the greatest athletes to ever play the quarterback position. He has good weapons in Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor. He just has to stay healthy.
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You don't have to draft as QB early to find upside. Daniels is available after QB12 in most drafts and could be a league-breaking value. As a rule, if rookie QBs have success it's with their legs, C.J. Stroud was just the exception. Well, Daniels ran for 1,1354 yards and 10 TD last year in just 12 games at LSU. He also threw 40 TD passes, so there's upside there as well. Pair him up with a safer QB like Jared Goff at the end of the draft and you'll be set.
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The Lions have three games all season that are guaranteed to be played outdoors in the elements. In dome games last year he averaged 25 more passing yards per game and threw 24 touchdowns and four interceptions compared to a 5-to-4 ratio outdoors. Football seasons are very short, so splits over one year can be deceiving. In 2022 he averaged 30 more passing yards per game indoors and had a 24-to-4 TD-INT ratio. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged more than 24 Fantasy points per game indoors, where more than three-quarters of his games are likely to be in 2024.
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Part of Lawrence's place on this list is that people who got burned by him last year are refusing to draft him, dropping him below his borderline QB1 projection. The upside beyond that type of projection comes from the belief that Lawrence was rarely truly healthy last year and he was unlucky in the red zone. He had numerous passes either dropped in the end zone, or the receiver was unable to get two feet down. That's why his TD rate fell back down to 3.7% after he posted 4.3% in 2022. If Lawrence can stay healthy and have a normal TD season (4.5-5.0%) he can give you solid QB1 production in the 11th round. Knowing both Goff and Lawrence are available this late should give you the confidence to focus elsewhere early in the draft if your league mates are too eager to draft the elite QBs.
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As of now, Wilson is mostly being drafted in Superflex or two-QB leagues. I know it won't be popular, but I think that may be a mistake. While he was a terrible fit for Sean Payton's system, he's had a TD rate of 5.8% or better in six of his last seven seasons and nine of 12 seasons in his career. He also averaged 22.7 rushing yards per game and scored three times on the ground. I don't expect Justin Fields to take the job from him as long as the Steelers are competitive and Mike Tomlin is pretty much always competitive. Also, Arthur Smith's QBs have run for 10 TDs over the past two seasons, showing he's not averse to using his QB on the ground in the red zone. Do not be surprised when Wilson not only holds on to the job, but outscores Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Matthew Stafford in the process.
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Every year I place the top QB in this section, but it's usually because they are being drafted in Round 1. This year, you guys are doing better because the top QB is being drafted in Round 3. But I think it's the wrong QB. As good as Allen has been, I don't want to bet on him finishing QB1 when his top three wide receivers appear to be rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir. I would definitely bet on rushing touchdowns regression as well. Joe Brady is going to call a more run-heavy game script, so I don't expect Allen to put up gaudy pass attempt numbers either. He should still be a clear top four QB, but you can get Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson a full round later and I would rather have them straight up this year.
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Numbers to know
- 26 -- Russell Wilson threw 26 touchdown passes in 15 games last year. The Steelers as a team have thrown 25 TD passes in the past two seasons combined.
- 9.6 -- Brock Purdy led the NFL with 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Expect some regression there, but also expect the 49ers to remain one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
- 242 -- Every QB to finish the top five the past two seasons has had at least 242 rushing yards. It's getting harder and harder to dominate Fantasy Football as a pocket passer.
- 15 -- Both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. We wouldn't bet on either repeating that.
- 26.3 -- Anthony Richardson averaged 26.3 FPPG in the two games he started and finished last season.
- 6.5 -- Patrick Mahomes' 6.5 intended air yards per attempt in 2023 was a career low. With the addition of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, expect more shots downfield.
- 28 -- Greg Roman's offenses have ranked 28th or lower in pass attempts in nine of his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator, that's bad news for Justin Herbert.
- 48 -- Kick Cousins tore his Achilles 48 days after Aaron Rodgers did. It may be a little riskier to project a bounce back from Cousins.
Draft to stream
Jared Goff vs Rams, vs Buccaneers
Goff could be one of those guys who you draft as a streamer and he finished top 12. He was in this section last year and finished top 12. But it's not quite that simple. Goff is a superstar at home, really good indoors, and has had some problems otherwise. Well, he opens the season with three of his four games at home and his only road game is at Arizona. That makes him the perfect late-round pick as a streamer and also my favorite quarterback to pair with Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams. You can start Goff for the first month while you get a look at the rookie.
Baker Mayfield vs Commanders, at Lions
Like Goff, Mayfield finished top-10 last year and isn't being drafted anywhere near that high. In the first three weeks of the season, he faces what we expect to be bad defenses in Washington and Denver at home and his only road game should be a shootout at Detroit. I'm not quite as comfortable calling him a set-it-and-forget-it QB1 during that stretch, but he's not far off.
Matthew Stafford at Lions, at Cardinals
So yeah, it's a little weird that all three QBs either play for the Lions or play at the Lions the first three weeks of the season, and no it's not just because I love revenge games, though I do. Including the playoffs, the Lions played 10 games at home last year and those games had an average total points scored of 51.8. You should be targeting streamers in this building all season. Well, not defenses.
Format matters
Better in leagues that reward four points per pass TD: Antony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones.
Better in leagues that allow you to start more than one QB: Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Derek Carr
In season, you can find my projections on Sportsline, but for the preseason you can find them below as well las my tiers!
