There are going to be ebbs and flows throughout this season and Week 5 was not a dramatic dip, but the 7-6-1 ATS run throughout the slate was meh. We're certainly able to cash at a more prolific level and we'll look to get back on a more profitable track as we turn toward Week 6.
This week, I'll be highlighting three teams that I expect to pull out road wins while piling on to a Patriots team that will have to go into Las Vegas to take on its old friends Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo.
2023 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 14-11
ATS: 39-36-3
ML: 47-31
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Panthers at Dolphins
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
With this sitting under two touchdowns and the way both these two have been moving the football, it's hard to go against the Dolphins here. Bryce Young has a 5.2 yards-per-attempt average this season, which is the lowest of any quarterback in the league entering Week 6. While they've struggled through the air, the ground game hasn't given much help either, averaging a so-so 4.0 yards per carry. They'll now be asked to keep up with a Dolphins team that leads the lead in both passing and rushing yards. Meanwhile, Miami's defense has been much better at home than on the road, allowing opponents to find the end zone on just 16.6% of their red zone trips inside Hard Rock Stadium. It's also worth noting that Tua Tagovailoa is a great bet at home. In his career, the Dolphins QB is 14-5 ATS at home, which is the fourth-best cover percentage since 1970 (min. 10 starts).
Score projection: Dolphins 34, Panthers 17
The pick: Dolphins -13.5
Seahawks at Bengals
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I like this number a lot better with the full field goal, but I like the spot the Seahawks are in. They own the rest advantage over Cincinnati after being on the bye in Week 5 and were playing some of their best football before the break. They come into Week 6 winners of three straight and their defense showed its potential in a dominating win over the Giants in Week 4. Of course, the Bengals will be a much more difficult challenge, especially after Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase seemed to find their rhythm last week against Arizona, connecting on three touchdowns. Still, the Seahawks are still flying a bit under the radar and should be able to move the ball against a Bengals defense that is a bit shaky on third down.
Score projection: Seahawks 27, Bengals 24
The pick: Seahawks +2.5
49ers at Browns
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The jury is still out on whether or not Deshaun Watson will play due to his shoulder injury. Whether it's Watson or possibly P.J. Walker, this is another great matchup for San Francisco's defense that just forced four turnovers (three interceptions) last week against Dallas. Cleveland's defense is certainly a force to be respected for Brock Purdy and the offense, but the Niners have so many different ways they can attack that it's hard to imagine Myles Garrett and Co. will be able to fully shut them down. The Browns are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games coming off the bye, which includes a streak of four straight ATS losses.
Score projection: 49ers 28, Browns 17
The pick: 49ers -5
Patriots at Raiders
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Folks keep waiting for the Patriots to show any glimmer of life and it has yet to come. And if you think it's going to be this week in Las Vegas, I think you'll once again be left out in the cold. New England is averaging just 11 points per game this season and a large reason for that has been the inability to protect Mac Jones. While the quarterback has made some terrible decisions on his own, he's also been pressured on 21.9% of his dropbacks (career high). Do we think Maxx Crosby and his 34-pressure (second-most in the NFL) is going to help or hurt that percentage? I think the Raiders pass rusher makes the afternoon another miserable one for Jones and the Patriots offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots are banged up defensively and will now be asked to slow down Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. For a Patriots team that is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games, this is likely another chapter in what has been a precipitous fall from grace.
Score projection: Raiders 27, Patriots 20
The pick: Raiders -3
Eagles at Jets
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Love getting this under a full touchdown. The Jets offensive line is hobble up with Alijah Vera-Tucker going on IR and, while Zach Wilson has played better as of late, he is still prone to a dire mistake and the Eagles are the type of team that can fully take advantage. What New York does well offensively, Philadelphia is good at slowing down. Coming into Week 6, the Jets are averaging 5.4 yards per rush (third-most in the NFL), but the Eagles are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per rush, giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. If that puts the ball into Wilson's hands more often, that's good news for Philly.
Score projection: Eagles 26, Jets 17
The pick: Eagles -6.5
Rest of the bunch
Broncos at Chiefs, Thursday
Score projection: Chiefs 30, Broncos 21
The pick: Broncos +10.5
Ravens at Titans
Score projection: Ravens 28, Titans 21
The pick: Ravens -3.5
Commanders at Falcons
Score projection: Falcons 24, Commanders 21
The pick: Falcons -2.5
Vikings at Bears
Score projection: Bears 24, Vikings 21
The pick: Bears +2.5
Colts at Jaguars
Score projection: Jaguars 27, Colts 24
The pick: Colts +4
Saints at Texans
Score projection: Saints 24, Texans 21
The pick: Saints -1.5
Cardinals at Rams
Score projection: Rams 27, Cardinals 20
The pick: Rams -6.5
Lions at Buccaneers
Score projection: Lions 28, Buccaneers 24
The pick: Lions -3
Giants at Bills
Score projection: Bills 33, Giants 17
The pick: Bills -14
Cowboys at Chargers, Monday
Score projection: Cowboys 30, Chargers 27
The pick: Cowboys -2.5
