NFL Week 5 bold predictions: Ravens buck trend by blowing out rival Steelers; Zach Wilson cooks vs. Broncos

Here's a look at five surprising predictions for this weekend's slate

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season is underway, starting with the Chicago Bears' surprising 40-20 beatdown of the host Washington Commanders on "Thursday Night Football." 

The duo of Bears quarterback Justin Fields and Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore looked like Tom Brady and Randy Moss from the 2007 New England Patriots. Moore totaled 230 receiving yards and three touchdowns, which made him the first Chicago player with 200 or more receiving yards and three or more touchdowns in a game since Harlon Hill all the way back in 1954 -- 12 years before the start of the Super Bowl Era. Fields' final tally ended up as 282 passing yards and four touchdowns on 15 of 29 passing, making him only the second Bears quarterback with four or more passing touchdowns in consecutive games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, joining Jay Cutler's run from Weeks 16 and 17 during the 2009 season. 

Since anything can happen when it comes to the NFL, what's next, you ask? Well, here are five bold predictions for this weekend's Week 5 slate.      

1. Colts upset Titans, snap seven-game home losing streak

The Tennessee Titans have won five consecutive matchups versus the Indianapolis Colts, and all five of those matchups saw Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Titans running back Derrick Henry and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor take the field. Both teams were operating with their stars. Taylor hasn't suited up yet in a game this season, but it's reasonable to expect his return Sunday after being eligible to play in Week 5 following the first four weeks of the season spent on the physically unable to perform list. He fully practiced Wednesday and Thursday this week.

However, the Titans' run of dominance over their AFC South rivals ends this week. The main reason for this prediction is the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He is coming off a Week 4 performance in which he totaled 200 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 56 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a 29-23 overtime defeat against the Los Angeles Rams. His stat-stuffing effort dug Indianapolis out of a 23-0 third-quarter deceit. It's easy to see how he did it. Check out this clip below of Richardson's rocket launcher arm rifling a completion over the head of a Rams defender and into his receiver's arms. 

and Anthony Richardson fires his hat into the ring pic.twitter.com/sYWmnQleCV

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 3, 2023

That is fantastic stuff. The Titans have lost five consecutive road games, two of which have occurred this season. That is not fantastic stuff. Their offense averages 89.0 fewer passing yards per game and 92.0 fewer rushing yards per game on the road this season. The Titans also have the 10th-worst passing defense, allowing 241.3 passing yards per game, and their secondary's 102.6 passer rating allowed to opposing quarterbacks is the sixth-highest in the league. Those are ideal conditions for Richardson to have a big day and carry the Colts to victory.

2. Zach Wilson throws multiple pass TDs in a game for second week in a row, leads Jets to win over Russell Wilson's Broncos

What Jets quarterback Zach Wilson did in Gang Green's 23-20 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 4 came across as Jets' fan-fiction. He totaled 245 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions on 28 of 39 passing for a 105.2 passer rating, as Sunday night marked the first game of Wilson's career in which he had multiple passing touchdowns and no interceptions in a game. He even outplayed reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, becoming the first quarterback to have more completions, more passing yards, more passing touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Mahomes in a game across his 127 starts in college and the NFL.

This week, he will do it again by throwing multiple passing touchdowns against the Broncos while leading Gang Green to victory. This is a bold prediction because Wilson has never had consecutive games with multiple passing touchdowns in his NFL career. In fact, he has two passing touchdowns and nine interceptions in his five games following a multi-passing touchdown contest. Wilson will have a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio Sunday, shredding Denver's defense that ranks last in the NFL in scoring defense (37.5 points per game allowed), total defense (461.5 total yards per game) and yards per play allowed (7.0). 

3. Josh Allen plays turnover-free football in win vs. Jaguars, snaps ugly streak

 Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is balling out right now, leading the NFL in completion percentage (76.6%), total touchdowns (10) and passer rating (125.8) over the past three weeks during his team's three-game winning streak. This run has propelled him to the top odds to become the 2023 NFL MVP. 

Allen is certainly playing at an elite level right now, but his game has a turnover bug to it. His 85 turnovers since entering the NFL in 2018 are the most in the league, and he hasn't made it through consecutive starts without a turnover since 2020, the longest active streak of any quarterback in the NFL (38 games). He didn't have a turnover Sunday in Buffalo's 48-20 beatdown of the Miami Dolphins as he amassed 320 passing yards and four passing touchdowns on 21 of 25 passing while also tacking on a rushing touchdown and 17 rushing yards on four carries. Allen will keep the good times rolling in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday by playing another clean game to end his turnover streak and continue to increase his MVP odds.

4. Ravens blow out Steelers for first meeting in series decided by at least a touchdown since 2019

The Ravens and Steelers matchups play out on the field the way they are narratively labeled: tough, hard-nosed, gritty, hard-hitting and tightly contested. There have been six consecutive games in the rivalry that have been decided by five or fewer points, tied for the fifth-longest such streak of any matchup in NFL history. 

Since Mike Tomlin became the Steelers' head coach in 2007, this rivalry has seen 22 games decided by five or fewer points, the most in the NFL for any matchup by seven games. 

However, Sunday's matchup will not be close. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is set to play in his first game against the Steelers in 672 days, his first since Week 13 of the 2021 season, a 20-10 Pittsburgh victory. The Jackson that is set up to take the field in Pittsburgh in Week 5 is on fire. He is coming off his first career game with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a 28-3 Week 4 win over the Cleveland Browns, a team that had allowed only one offensive touchdown in the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Jackson is also the only player in NFL history with a completion percentage of 70% or higher (74.3%, second-best in the NFL) and four rushing touchdowns in the first four games of a season. 

On the Steelers side, their offense has scored its fewest offensive points (48) through four games since the 2001 season, and they are coming off a 30-6 blowout defeat against the Houston Texans. Their offensive line has allowed the highest natural pressure allowed (44%) this season in situations when facing four or fewer pass rushers. Second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett has four turnovers in four games this season, and he has the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.3) and the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (7-10) in the NFL with a clean pocket since entering the league in 2022. Pittsburgh's offense is cooked under offensive coordinator Matt Canada, as their 18.8 points per game since 2021 with him as their OC rank 28th in the league. Its struggles will continue Sunday, breaking a longstanding run of fun, competitive affairs with the Ravens, its archrivals.

5. Joe Burrow completes at least three passes of 15+ air yards, including a touchdown

Bengals Pro Bowl wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase was right. Early in the preseason, after Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a calf injury in training camp, his top wideout and LSU BFF, Ja'Marr Chase, declared that he thought Burrow should sit out until Week 5 if he wasn't 100%.

"I told him that with all honesty I don't want him there," Chase said on NFL Network on Aug. 4. "Same thing with me last year. I sat out an extra game just to let my hip all the way heal up, and you don't want to cause no other problems later on in the season, and I told him as long as you're there after Week 5 and on, we're good brother."

Four weeks into the 2023 season, Chase appears to be on to something. The Bengals are 1-3, and without the ability to put as much of his lower body into this throws, Burrow can't connect on his patented deep ball. The NFL's highest-paid player on an annual basis -- Burrow signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension on Sept. 9 -- is 2-for-22 on throws of 15 or more air yards this season. This is unprecedented for Burrow, as he only had one game without a completion of 15 or more air yards in his first 42 career starts. Now, he has done so in three games in 2023. Across the last two seasons, Burrow led the NFL with 27 passing touchdowns of 15 or more air yards. His 4.8 yards per pass attempt are the lowest through a team's first four games since at least 1950 among players with at least 150 passing attempts. 

Joe Burrow passing on throws of 15+ air yards (last three seasons)

	2021-2022	2023
Comp Pct	51% (2nd)	9.1% (2-22, last in NFL)
TD-INT	27-9* (1st)	0-2 (T-last in NFL)
Passer Rating	117.1 (1st)	2.3 (Last in NFL)

*Most passing touchdowns on throws of 15+ air yards from 2021-22

However, Burrow will snap out of it Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, in a game he labeled a "must-win," by completing at least three passes of 15-plus air yards, one of which will go for a touchdown. The Cardinals are allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game in the NFL (242.5), and their 112.5 passer rating allowed on passes of 15 or more air yards is the sixth-highest in the NFL.

"This is the best I've felt after a game, so I'm optimistic," Burrow said Wednesday. "My ability to throw hasn't been affected. Mainly just my ability to move in the pocket, run for first downs, extend plays by that little extra second."

Burrow will be extending his passes downfield Sunday and completing them at his highest clip of the season in a victorious effort in a game Cincy desperately needs to keep up in the cutthroat AFC.