The NFL has been drooling about USC quarterback Caleb Williams' pro prospects for years and for great season. Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, is the first FBS quarterback with 30 or more passing touchdowns and 10 or more rushing touchdowns in consecutive seasons since back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes did so at Texas Tech in 2015 and 2016. If that metric is expanded upon to include five or fewer interceptions, Williams is the only quarterback in the 21st century to total 30-plus passing scores and 10-plus rushing scores while putting the football in harm's way at such a low clip.
No player had more total touchdowns than Williams' 120 over the course of his collegiate career from 2021-2023. The most eye-popping part of his game isn't his numbers, it's the way he goes with his own flow on the football field. Williams typically drifts toward off-platform and out-of-play-structure throws, a style that produces throws not thought to be possible with unorthodox arm angles and stunning completions. His cannon for arm provides him a margin of error on such plays not typically afforded to most quarterbacks as Williams can drop the football into any location on the field while also possessing the athleticism to create back-breaking plays for defenses on the ground.
However, his seemingly preferred mode of operation -- holding on to the ball to make a backyard miracle occur -- could hinder his effectiveness in the pros. It's nitpicking, but it shows up on tape. Some of that is reflective of the scheme and offensive line in front of him, but some of that falls on Williams himself. Should he be coaxed into taking his checkdown options more frequently, Williams is assured to have a long NFL career.
Here are the best team fits for the presumed first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Please be aware it is highly unlikely Williams is selected outside of the first two picks.
5. New York Giants (6th overall pick)
Daniel Jones doesn't feel like the right choice to be the New York Giants long-term quarterback. The issue is the Giants committed to their sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, signing him to a four-year, $160 million extension last offseason.
Jones struggled in 2023, throwing two touchdowns to six interceptions in six starts before a torn ACL ended his season. His 2022 run in which he had the lowest interception rate (1.1%) in the NFL appears to be an outlier. However, New York would have to eat $69 million in dead money if they cut Jones this offseason. That number decreases to a much more feasible $22 million hit in 2025. He'll likely be on the roster in 2024.
One thing the Giants have struggled to do with Jones is get their downfield passing game going. He has never averaged 7 yards per pass attempt or higher in any of his five seasons in the NFL. Williams never averaged under 9 yards per pass attempt in college.
New York clearly needs a successor for Jones, and Williams would be a fit in the country's biggest media market. The Giants being able to trade up to go get him is nearly nonexistent.
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4. New England Patriots (3rd overall pick)
The New England Patriots offense is at ground zero this offseason. They have a new offensive coordinator in Alex Van Pelt, plus the team's top two tight ends (Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki) and both starting offensive tackles (Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu) are scheduled to be free agents. The Patriots are projected to have $69.3 million in effective cap space, according to OverTheCap.com, which would rank as the second-most in the entire NFL. They can do blow up their roster and have a new one fully intact in one offseason.
New England's roster is guaranteed to look dramatically altered between the amount of cap space present and the start of the first year of the 21st century without Bill Belichick running the show. Williams would be a jarringly different quarterback than who the Patriots trotted out in 2023: Mac Jones -- who ranked bottom three in NFL in yards per pass attempt (6.1), TD-INT (10-12) and passer rating (77.0) -- and Bailey Zappe -- his eight turnovers from Weeks 14-18 were tied for the second-most in the NFL. Both of them played huge roles in the Patriots' anemic offensive attack.
There is an incredibly slim chance Williams falls outside of the first two picks in the draft.
3. Atlanta Falcons (8th overall pick)
The Falcons are an ideal landing spot for any quarterback, let alone the most coveted quarterback prospect in years, with their offensive talent. Running back Bijan Robinson, their eighth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and the most desired running back prospect in years, amassed the most scrimmage yards (1,463) by a rookie in team history. Only Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua had more among last season's rookie class with 1,575 scrimmage yards.
Atlanta also rosters high-talent pass-catchers in wide receiver Drake London (the eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft) and tight end Kyle Pitts (the highest-drafted tight end in the common draft era (since 1967) as the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft). Along the offensive line, two-time Pro Bowl right guard Chris Lindstrom stands out as Pro Football Focus' top guard with an 89.7 PFF offensive grade.
All they need is a quarterback. Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick in 2022, produced the fourth-lowest expected points added per play among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2023. He's not that guy. New head coach Raheem Morris acknowledged that fact at his NFL Combine press conference on Tuesday.
"If we had better quarterback play I may not be standing here at the podium," Morris said.
Williams, plus the Falcons' offensive talent, would probably result in an immediate playoff berth at the very least. The Falcons will have to trade up seven spots to get Williams, something that isn't happening.
2. Washington Commanders (2nd overall pick)
The Commanders are starting over. New ownership (Josh Harris and his ownership group), new head coach (Dan Quinn) and a new general manager (Adam Peters). They have everything they to turn their fortune around quickly with $67.7 million in effective cap space, according to OverTheCap.com (the fourth-most in the NFL), and Washington has five draft picks in the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Commanders would also provide Williams with a sense comfort having attended Gonzaga College High School in D.C.
"It'd be really cool because it's so familiar," Williams told ESPN of his fit with Washington. "There's a time and place for everything. My job and my hobby is being at the facility or on the field or watching film. Or relaxing and prepping for the next day or game. My main goal and focus ... is to go win games and stay focused on keeping the main goal the main goal."
They have some solid playmakers on the roster already in Pro Bowl wide receiver Terry McLaurin, 2022 first-round pick wideout Jahan Dotson and 2022 third-round pick Brian Robinson Jr. Washington would also have familiarity on the coaching staff in the team's new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The former Arizona Cardinals head coach returned to the football coaching world with role on USC's coaching staff with the title of senior offensive analyst.
Washington can add more firepower in free agency and have its roster ready to roll for a rookie quarterback and new offensive coordinator immediately.
1. Chicago Bears (1st overall pick)
With the Bears likely to trade quarterback Justin Fields, the 11th overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Chicago puts itself in the market for a new quarterback with plenty of assets at its disposal. The first overall pick in the upcoming draft was acquired in the trade from a year ago that netted the Panthers Bryce Young with the 2023 first overall pick, so they have two top 10 selections the Bears own pick being on the board at ninth overall.
Williams, likely the first of those two selections, isn't shying away from joining a quarterback-starved franchise like the Bears that has never seen a player throw for 4,000 yards in a season.
"If I get drafted by the Bears, I'll be excited," Williams told ESPN. "If they trade the pick, and I get drafted by someone else, I'm just as excited. Speaking about Chicago, they have a talented team, a talented offense and defense. For anyone to be in that situation, I think they'd be excited."
They have a true WR1 in DJ Moore plus $66.2 million in effective cap space, the fifth-most in the NFL this offseason per OverTheCap.com. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are a solid one-two punch at running back, and Chicago finished 2023 with wins in five of their final eight games thanks to leading the NFL in that span in scoring defense (17.2 points per game allowed). A full season of edge rusher Montez Sweat, plus more defensive additions in the offseason, could fill out the bones of a soon-to-be well-rounded roster for a young quarterback.
Should he be the one to lift the Bears to their first playoff win since the 2010 season and much more, Williams knows that in a sports-rich city like Chicago that has seen Michael Jordan and Walter Payton represent their city, he has a chance to be remembered for a very long time.
"I'm 22. I didn't really get to see those players," Williams said. "As the saying goes, the legends live on. That's my goal of playing football -- it's not money, it's not fame -- it's to be immortal. I want to reach that sense of being a legend. Being at the table ... and having a rightful seat through hard work and energy and time I've put into this game that we all love. It's appealing to be in a city like that. With legends that you've looked up to ... reach for the standard they set and try to do anything to get there."
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order, mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
