Kevin Durant is gone, for a while. The Oklahoma City Thunder star suffered a Jones fracture and will be out at least 6-8 weeks, the team announced Sunday. The injury takes out the Thunder's best player, and the second-best player in the NBA, arguably the best along with LeBron James. It has massive repercussions across the league as evidenced by the books' reaction in taking all NBA futures off the board to let the market settle and figure out the adjustments.
But this is sports, and the Internet, and both are always moving forward. So let's take a look at what the Thunder's options are for keeping themselves afloat without the Slim Reaper.
The Reggie Jackson Augmentation
Reggie Jackson started at point guard with Russell Westbrook out last season recovering from knee surgery and played so well that he made his way into the starting lineup as the two-guard in the playoffs. With Durant on the shelf, the primary question becomes whether OKC will look to find a scoring balance to offset Durant's absence or focus on their defensive principles, lean on the other starters they have, and go from there.
In preseason, Jackson has been coming off the bench. The easy answer is to move Jackson into the starting lineup at two-guard and move starter Andre Roberson to the three-spot. But to do that means you essentially have no creator off the bench for OKC. The Thunder elected not to find a replacement for Derek Fisher, so you'd be looking at Sebastian Telfair or Grant Jerrett at bench playmaker. That's ... not ideal. Jeremy Lamb is a possibility here.
The Roberson-Morrow Amalgamation
So you're losing Durant's 32 points and 5.5 assists per game, which is, you know, terrible. But you're also losing his defense, which has gotten to be phenomenal. You have to find a way to cover for that.
Andre Roberson is a second-year man that not many folks know about. He started quite a few games late in the season for the Thunder when Jeremy Lamb fell into the pit of Scott Brooks' doghouse, and has been the starting two-guard in preseason for the most part. Roberson is a big, physical, long defender with significant potential on the defensive end. You can slide him in at small forward at 6-foot-7, which means you may have the defensive end covered.
Of course, Roberson went only 2 for 13 on treys last season, so you're going to want some offense.
And that's where Anthony Morrow comes in. Morrow was the lone off-season addition to the Thunder last year, as the team decided to focus on adding some offensive firepower that was badly missing and in turn impacted spacing last season. Morrow is, to be quite honest, one of the best shooters on the planet. He's a career 42.8 percent shooter from beyond the arc. He's not going do much in the way of creating on his own, but he is crafty in creating open opportunities off-ball, and having him on the floor will mean more room for Russell Westbrook to operate.
Here's what Morrow's offense looked like in 2012, the last time he played more than 20 minutes per game.
The problem with Morrow has always been his defense. Morrow talking up his focus on the defensive end has become an annual tradition, and this year it's no different.
"That's why after I signed, I got into town and started working with the guys immediately," Morrow told CBSSports.com last week. "I wanted to get an understanding of the defensive system so I can really focus on that end, more than I have in past years."
There will be skepticism on that point since it's defense that's kept Morrow from significant minutes despite his unbelievable shooting ability. Still, the Thunder have done more with less, and Morrow and Roberson together, if you put them together, make up maybe 35 to 40 percent of a Kevin Durant.
Who can step up?
Beyond the starters, the options off the bench aren't great. As mentioned above, Lamb had his confidence completely destroyed last year, and continues to deal with the fact that he was essentially the centerpiece of the James Harden trade (though Steven Adams is thankfully starting to take some of that pressure off). Lamb showed some things in playmaking, and really does have a great shot mechanically. He's a long and willing defender, he's just not aware of savvy on that end. Still, expect him to get some minutes into rotation and a chance to finally show what the Thunder believed he was capable of.
Perry Jones III is the other wild card here. A one-time projected lottery pick, Jones saw his stock plummet before the 2012 draft on account of a medical red flag and questions about his toughness. (I watched a Kansas team with Thomas Robinson absolutely pummel Jones inside in both season contests and had major reservations about Jones.) But in OKC his length and skillset has been developed. He's added muscle and knows the system inside and out at this point. He's also earned minutes here and there and showed a few things.
PJ3 being able to show anything significant would be a major upset, but it's also not out of the question. The physical talent and toolkit is there. It's just a matter of whether he can contain mistakes and assert himself with more minutes.
The Smallball Excitation and the Bigball Safety Net
As I said above, the defense is a major issues here, but obviously Durant's offense is huge under any circumstance. And if you're trying to up your scoring potential, the best way to do it is to push the pace and run. That could mean more smallball lineups, with Jackson and Lamb joining Westbrook, but trying to find a stretch four to run the floor is tough. Ibaka can do it, but then you're still effectively trying to play big with a small lineup. And Steven Adams has shown enough to warrant the starting job, and significant minutes.
So instead, coach Scott Brooks may opt to go big instead. Slow the game down and focus on defense. With Westbrook, Roberson, Jackson, Ibaka and Adams, he's going to be able to slow the game down. Moving Nick Collison to the four and playing, yes, Kendrick Perkins at backup center can help that situation as well. Going small would help the offense the most, but the Thunder aren't really well positioned to try that approach.
The Trade Unknown
It's unlikely, given how stable OKC typically is and how quiet they were over the offseason. But there's always a trade possibility. Reggie Jackson is a starter-quality point guard and Kendrick Perkins has a $9 million-plus expiring contract. Either by themselves is not appealing, but in combination, the Thunder might find a team that has multiple bench assets they're willing to lose to take a shot at Jackson and clear some cap space. Again, it's unlikely, but this is the same team who made the Perkins trade out of nowhere three years ago, drafted Perry Jones III, and made a run at Pau Gasol this summer. Big moves are not necessarily out of their mindset.
The Difficult Reality
In truth, you can't replace Durant. You can't even realistically expect to cover 75 percent of his production or how he impacts the defense just by his presence, much less his production. But the Thunder are going to have to find options, whether it's lineup adjustments or a young player finding his groove. And beyond all of it stands the biggest question ...
What will Russell Westbrook do?
