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The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat duel off in a Game 7 affair with a trip to the 2023 NBA Finals on the line. The Celtics are red-hot right now, winners of three straight matchups in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals. In Saturday's Game 6 showdown, Boston topped Miami 104-103. Boston is averaging 113.4 points per game during the 2023 NBA playoffs, while the Heat are logging 112.2 points per matchup. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is questionable for Miami, while Malcolm Brogdon (arm) is questionable for the Celtics.

The game from TD Garden Center in Boston will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Boston is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 204. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, he quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 162 NBA picks, he is 106-55-1, returning nearly $3,600 for $100 players. Anybody following him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Severance's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics: Boston -7.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 204 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Boston -285, Miami +228
  • MIA: Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall
  • BOS: Over is 11-5 in Celtics' last 16 overall
  • Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Why the Celtics can cover

Guard Jaylen Brown owns terrific athleticism and shot-making ability. Brown will relentlessly attack the lane and absorb contact in the paint when needed. The California product plays outstanding defense and will cause turnovers. Brown is second on the team in scoring (22.8) along with 5.5 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game in the postseason. In Game 6, he notched 26 points and 10 rebounds.

Guard Marcus Smart is stout two-way force who has remarkable instincts defensively with a smooth jumper on the perimeter. The Oklahoma State product is averaging 15.2 points with 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game in the 2023 NBA playoffs. He's scored 20-plus in consecutive games, and in Game 6, Smart racked up 21 points and four boards. See which team to back here.

Why the Heat can cover

Forward Caleb Martin has been an energetic scorer off the bench all postseason for Miami. Martin owns a reliable shot with the willingness to put the ball on the deck. The Nevada product is third on the team in points (13.4) with 5.5 rebounds per game in the 2023 NBA playoffs. He's also shooting 42% from downtown, and in Game 6, Martin finished with 21 points and 15 boards.

Guard Kyle Lowry brings a veteran presence onto the floor. Lowry has superb court vision, a smooth perimeter jumper, and in his last outing, he totaled eight points, three assists, and two steals. Meanwhile, guard Max Strus provides this unit with a sharpshooter on the outside. Strus doesn't need much space to get a shot off, and he's putting up 10.5 points while shooting 36% from beyond the arc in the postseason. In Game 6, Strus notched 10 points, three assists, and made two 3-pointers. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

Severance is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can only find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the expert who has returned nearly $3,600 to $100 players over his last 162 NBA picks, and find out.