This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Twins at Rays, 6:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
- The Pick: Rays (-170)
- Key Trend: The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 games against American League Central teams.
Fresh off of winning three out of four against the Red Sox, I'm expecting the Rays' dominance to continue. Rays starter Zach Eflin has really enjoyed a resurgence since leaving the Phillies in the offseason. Aside from star arm Shane McClanahan, Eflin has been the Rays most consistent starting pitcher.
Eflin has accumulated a 7-1 record to go along with a 3.30 ERA. The veteran right-hander has thrived at home, where he's 6-0 with just a 2.19 ERA in six starts. In addition, the Rays have been victorious in all but one of Eflin's starts throughout the 2023 season.
It doesn't hurt that the best offense in baseball plays behind him. The Rays rank first in home runs (103), second in RBIs (343), third in batting average (.266) and third in hits (558). Simply put, Tampa Bay's offense is lethal, which isn't a huge surprise when you have bats like Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz in your lineup. Bank on this lineup to back a pitcher like Eflin, who has been automatic thus far this season.
💰 More MLB Picks
Giants at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 11.5 (-120) -- When you see that a game is being played at Coors Field, your mind immediately races to the fact that a ton of runs could be scored given the altitude. However, I believe that will be far from the case when the Rockies host the Giants on Tuesday.
The under has had a 14-16 mark when the Rockies have played at home this season. Sure, the Rockies' offense has been strong, as they rank eighth with a .259 batting average. However, the Giants and Rockies both rank in the top 11 in the majors when it comes to batters striking out. The Rockies, who are the more dangerous offense, have averaged just 3.4 runs-per-game over their last five contests.
Meanwhile, the Giants are putting up 2.8 runs-per-game over their last five games and haven't scored more than four runs in any of those matchups during that stretch. Neither side is lighting the world on fire. With that being said, 11 runs is a lot to play with, even at Coors Field. I don't see these two sides getting anywhere close to that number.
Key Trend: The under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Colorado.
Mets at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: TBS
The Pick: Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130) -- Yes, I'm going back to the Bryce Elder well once again. Elder has been one of the top pitchers in baseball up to this point. The Braves right-hander has recorded a 1.92 ERA, which is the lowest among qualifying starting pitchers in baseball. Elder has tallied at least five strikeouts in four of his last six outings, including having six strikeouts in two of his last three contests.
Look, the Mets are one of the more disciplined teams at the plate, as they have the third-fewest strikeouts on the year. However, they are coming off a series against the Blue Jays in which they lost all three games and struck out at least 10 times in each of those contests. With getting Elder's strikeout prop at plus money, I love the value here -- especially with a relatively low number.
Key Trend: Elder has recorded at least five strikeouts in four of his last six starts.
