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In an ideal and sensible baseball universe – i.e., not the one we have – teams would approach a deadline sell-off with some mix of resistance and chagrin. That's because queuing up on the seller side in late July should be regarded as a sign of organizational failure. You have failed to contend and thus you are now strip-mining your roster and choosing to be even worse over the balance of the season. 

This, of course, is not how a relative abundance of teams view matters. We speak, of course, of those who are undertaking rebuilds or, in the more cynical variant, indulging in a tank job. It's too much with us these days and, really, has been for some time. But enough about them. On to the more respectable end of the "possible deadline seller" continuum. 

We speak of those teams who came into 2024 with reasonable designs on contention and, to varying degrees, conducted themselves accordingly. What makes them possible sellers – reluctant sellers, presumably – is that this season hasn't unfolded as hoped. The good news for these squadrons is there's still time, almost a full month, before the deadline arrives, and that means time to find their expected level. That, in turn, means being rescued from the seller bucket and instead going into hold or maybe even buy mode. When it comes to trade-deadline positioning, the next few weeks will be especially critical for the six teams to come. Let's explore those teams now. 

1. Houston Astros

Record: 42-41
Games out of playoff position: 3 1/2
SportsLine postseason odds: 74.4%
Schedule leading up to deadline: @TOR (4), @MIN (3), MIA (3), TEX (3), @SEA (3), @OAK (3), LAD (3), PIT (1)

It seems nigh imponderable to go from appearing in seven straight ALCSs to possible deadline seller in such short order. That, however, is where the Astros presently find themselves. Joe Espada's club had a 10-19 mark coming out of April, and they've been working to make up for that lost ground ever since. Of late, they've been doing just that. The Astros have been victimized by a poor record in one-run games, and that kind of thing tends to self-correct. As well, their run differential suggests they deserve a better record than they have. That's another thing that could equalize moving forward. They're starting to get healthier in the rotation, and Alex Bregman is at last starting to put up vintage numbers at the plate. As you see above, they've rebuilt their playoff odds quite nicely.

On another level, general manager Dana Brown in his public comments has shown no willingness to entertain a trade-deadline selloff. That's understandable in light of the organization's recent history and in light of their current positioning, their disappointing overall record notwithstanding. Given the roster flaws in Seattle, the Astros have realistic designs on the division title, not "just" any old playoff berth. Given these circumstances, the Astros probably need to do nothing more than hold serve in order to avoid a deadline sale. It would take a major collapse this month for that to change. An unlikely sell-off could involve notable names like Justin Verlander and organizational lifer Alex Bregman (who's in his walk year), and a deeper pivot could loop in arb-eligible young stars like Kyle Tucker. Again, though, all of that seems highly unlikely, and the guess here is that the Astros undertake some level of buy instead.

2. Texas Rangers

Record: 38-46
Games out of playoff position: 8
SportsLine postseason odds: 9.5%
Schedule leading up to deadline: SDP (3), TBR (3), @LAA (3), @HOU (3), BAL (3), CHW (4), @TOR (3), @STL (1)

The most disappointing team in baseball so far? That's a reasonable question to ask of the Rangers, who are coming off a World Series title in 2023 but are presently on pace for 90 losses this year. They're well out of playoff position, as you can see above, and there's some health uncertainty surrounding star shortstop Corey Seager. The rotation is gradually getting healthier, but they have a great deal of ground to make up with the majority of the regular-season schedule already behind them. Obviously, the Rangers have to their credit operated like a team serious about winning in recent years, but the reality of the current standings could force the hand of GM Chris Young leading up to the deadline. Consider Texas to be perhaps the most fascinating deadline case during the month of July. Their entire season and near-term future may hinge on that stretch of games listed above. 

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 42-42
Games out of playoff position: 4
SportsLine postseason odds: 10.9%
Schedule leading up to deadline: @KCR (3), @TEX (3), NYY (3), CLE (3), @NYY (4), @TOR (3), CIN (3)

It's not as though Stuart Sternberg, the Rays' largely pointless owner, has ever invested at levels befitting the club's reliable status as contenders, so it follows that he'll look for any old excuse to shed salary. After all, coming into this season Sternberg laughably claimed that the Rays would suffer "real losses" this year because of payroll. This comes after a winter in which they traded away the salaries of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. Per Cot's/Baseball Prospectus projections, the Rays should wind up being under $100 million for the year-end, 40-man-roster payroll and rank 25th in such things. That's hardly onerous (it's the opposite of it, in fact) but, well, these are the Sternberg Rays we're talking about. He's hardly alone in this habit common to small-market owners – Bob Nutting in Pittsburgh and the Dolans in Cleveland are also prominent within that sub-guild – but that doesn't excuse it. 

So the Rays' current reality is that they're outside of playoff position and saddled by a run differential (minus-56) that says they're lucky to be even as close as they are. They could soon be getting healthier in the rotation, which may serve as an incentive to trade from that forthcoming rotation depth rather than benefit directly from it. Zach Eflin could be a highly coveted name if shopped, and the same goes for Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, and perhaps others.

In any event, the Rays probably need to go on a notable heater leading into late July if they're going to avoid such a fate. The schedule ahead may not be accommodating on that front. 

4. New York Mets 

Record: 40-41
Games out of playoff position: 2
SportsLine postseason odds: 56.5%
Schedule leading up to deadline: @WSN (4), @PIT (4), WSN (3), COL (3), @MIA (4), @NYY (2), ATL (4), MIN (1)

It was hard to justify putting a National League team on this list because of the overly permissive nature of the NL wild-card race. This, after all, is a circuit in which just two of the 15 teams – the Rockies and Marlins – count as obvious non-contenders. This brings us to the Mets. For a time, it looked like they might be joining that blighted duo. As recently as June 2, the Mets were 11 games under .500 and had less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs. Since then, though, they've leveled up in a big way, and as the numbers above show they're very much in the mix for a playoff spot. Had things continued down that grimmer path, then lead operator David Stearns might have shopped franchise stalwart Pete Alonso leading up to July 30 and perhaps tapped into their rotation depth after Kodai Senga's eventual return. 

Given owner Steve Cohen's impressive and laudable devotion to winning, it's all but impossible to imagine that the Mets after their June surge wind up compromising the current roster at the deadline. Furthermore, you'll note above that the Mets' schedule across the first half of July – their first 17 games of the month – can be characterized as quite accommodating. Meet expectations across that stretch and the Mets will be firmly in buyer territory. That likely means an active search for bullpen help. Only a sudden collapse against those very beatable teams can alter that arc, and that doesn't seem likely. 

5. Chicago Cubs

Record: 39-46
Games out of playoff position: 5
SportsLine postseason odds: 16.9%
Schedule leading up to deadline: PHI (3), LAA (3), @BAL (3), @STL (4), ARI (3), MIL (3), @KCR (3), @CIN (1)

Okay, fine, one more NL team. The consensus was that the Cubs under new manager Craig Counsell should be the favorites in the NL Central. That's obviously not how things have worked out. Instead, the Cubs have been limited by a surprisingly sub-mediocre offense and a bullpen that's struggled, particularly in high-leverage situations. Peer beneath the hood at run differential and things aren't any better. The margins are tight, yes, but this is a last-place team who's already 11 1/2 games out of first place. Yes, the Cubs are "just" five games out of the third and final wild-card spot, but they're also behind a whopping seven teams in that particular queue (including the Pirates, Nationals, and Reds). Ace Justin Steele, your thoughts on these current realities?

Mmm hmm. President of baseball ops Jed Hoyer isn't exactly the most aggressive operator when it comes to positioning his roster to contend, and the team is giving him plenty of excuses to do nothing or even sell leading up to the deadline. They need to go on a run quickly. 

6. Toronto Blue Jays 

Record: 38-45
Games out of playoff position: 7 1/2
SportsLine postseason odds: 4.7%
Schedule leading up to deadline: HOU (4), @SEA (3), @SFG (3), @ARI (3), DET (3), TBR (3), TEX (3), @BAL (2)

The Jays are in grave danger of not just a deadline sell-off but also a deep, scorched-earth teardown. For a team that's clocked four straight winning seasons and made the playoffs in three of those and also made a serious run at signing Shohei Ohtani this past winter, this qualifies as a plot twist. They've been undone by a surprisingly bad offense and a bullpen that's hemorrhaged runs. The Jays have also been consistently bad, as they've yet to post a winning record in any month thus far. Throw in the unsparing nature of the American League East, and you've got a Toronto squad with little hope of making it three straight trips to the postseason. 

Right now, indicators point strongly toward a Jays sell-off, and this of course isn't lost on the players: 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the most intriguing names that may be made available under such circumstances. Others that may be dangled include Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier, and Justin Turner. The shedding of what the Jays thought would be a championship core might also mean manager John Schneider's job is in peril, and it's not unthinkable that it could also lead to changes in the upper reaches of the front office. It's going to take a swift reversal of fortunes for the Jays to not be sellers, and that doesn't seem likely to happen over the next month. It's looking like a deep sell up north.