Bartow Arena showcases an intriguing matchup in the final of the 2023 SWAC Tournament on Saturday. The No. 8 seed Texas Southern Tigers aim to continue a Cinderella run when they face the No. 2 seed Grambling Tigers. Texas Southern is 13-20 overall this season but, after wins over No. 1 seed Alcorn State and No. 5 seed Alabama A&M, Johnny Jones' team is one win from the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Grambling is red-hot, winning its last 11 games, and the team has a 24-8 overall record with a 17-3 mark against conference opponents.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Tigers as 3.5-point favorites for this 5:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 130.5 in the latest Texas Southern vs. Grambling odds. Before locking in any Grambling vs. Texas Southern picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now the model has zeroed in on Grambling vs. Texas Southern and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Texas Southern vs. Grambling:

  • Texas Southern vs. Grambling spread: Grambling -3.5
  • Texas Southern vs. Grambling over/under: 130.5 points
  • Texas Southern vs. Grambling money line: Grambling -178, TX Southern +150
  • Texas Southern: The Tigers are 6-12-2 against the spread in SWAC games
  • Grambling: The Tigers are 13-6 against the spread in SWAC games
  • Texas Southern vs. Grambling picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Grambling Tigers vs. Texas Southern Tigers

Why Texas Southern can cover

Texas Southern's defense was tremendous against Alabama A&M in a semifinal win on Friday. The Tigers held Alabama A&M to 35% shooting from the field, creating 16 turnovers, and giving up only 10 assists. Texas Southern is also the best defensive rebounding team in the SWAC this season, securing more than 74% of missed shots on the defensive glass. The Tigers are No. 2 in the conference in assist percentage allowed, and Texas Southern is above-average in both 2-point shooting allowed and field goal percentage allowed. 

In addition to fundamental metrics, Texas Southern plays at the fastest tempo in the SWAC, putting consistent pressure on the opposition. The Tigers have four players averaging in double figures on offense this season, and Texas Southern is in the top two of the SWAC in 2-point accuracy, field goal percentage, and block rate allowed. Texas Southern is also in the top four of the SWAC in assists, averaging 11.6 per game in conference play.

Why Grambling can cover

Grambling's defense is the class of the SWAC this season. The Tigers are No. 1 in overall defensive efficiency, including the best opponent shooting metrics in the conference. Opponents are shooting only 43% inside the arc and 31% from 3-point range against Grambling. The Tigers block almost 12% of shot attempts, No. 2 in the SWAC, and Texas Southern has offensive shortcomings. 

Texas Southern makes only 30% of 3-point shots and fewer than 70% of free throw attempts while securing fewer than 29% of available offensive rebound opportunities. On the other end, Grambling is in the top two of the conference in overall efficiency, 3-point shooting, and free throw rate. Texas Southern allows the second-most points in the SWAC, with bottom-three marks in free throw prevention, turnover creation rate, steal rate and 3-point percentage allowed.

How to make Grambling vs. Texas Southern picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 136 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine

So who wins Texas Southern vs. Grambling? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.