An emerging fan favorite and the reigning Super Bowl champions kick off the 2023 NFL regular season, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. Andy Reid's team has established themselves as a perennial contender, while the Lions are on the rise.
After recording their first winning season since 2017, the Lions are now the favorites to win the NFC North -- something that hasn't happened since 1993. Head coach Dan Campbell says the league is betting on the Lions not getting their "ass kicked" with this date in Kansas City, but could Detroit actually win? The Chiefs will be without star tight end Travis Kelce, who suffered a knee injury in practice on Tuesday. He will miss his first game due to injury since his rookie season in 2013. How much will it affect Kansas City? And then there's the issue of star defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has been holding out. It's not looking like he will be in the fold, either.
Below, we will break down this special Thursday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Sept. 7 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -4.5, O/U 53
Injury report
Lions: DB Emmanuel Moseley (knee) OUT
Chiefs: TE Travis Kelce (knee) OUT
Line movement
This line opened at KC -6.5 on May 11. It rose to KC -7 on Aug. 1, but fell back down to KC -6.5 less than a week later. On Sept. 5, when Kelce's injury was reported, the line fell all the way to KC -5. Wednesday, it fell another half point.
The pick: Chiefs -4.5. This matchup features two Week 1 against-the-spread juggernauts. Detroit has covered in 12 straight season openers (longest streak since at least 1979), while Kansas City has covered in eight straight season openers. DET +7 was certainly attractive, but now this line has fallen so much, I can't help but switch sides.
Even without Kelce, I trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. This should be a close game, but we need to see if Detroit's additions on defense are enough to push the Lions into that group of legitimate contenders. Mahomes and Reid have earned my trust. Coach Campbell and Jared Goff still have to -- and this is a great opportunity for them to pick up a franchise-changing win on a national stage. This game was not one of my top five ATS picks of Week 1, but I'll take the Chiefs to win. Hopefully it's by at least five points.
Loving my play for this game, even if Kelce doesn't play, but I highly recommend you also read R.J. White's pick because he seems to nail every Lions game. The man is on an CRAZY 53-35-2 (+1462) run against the spread on his last 90 picks in games involving Detroit. White's pick is available over at SportsLine and you can check it out here.
Over/Under 53
The total opened at 49.5 on May 11, but quickly shot up to 53.5. It climbed another full point to 54.5, but after Kelce's reported injury, began to fall -- reaching as low as 52.5.
The pick: Under 53. Totals usually fly Over for the Chiefs in season openers -- in eight straight in fact. But this matchup feels a bit different. Not only is the Kelce factor big, but Detroit attempted to beef up its defense this offseason with Cameron Sutton, Jack Campbell, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Brian Branch. The total is absolutely not something I'm champing at the bit to bet here, but lean to the Under.
Jared Goff props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -139, Under +102)
Passing yards: 258.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 35.5 (Over -103, Under -133)
Passing completions: 23.5 (Over +102, Under -139)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
The juice on Goff's passing touchdown number has me leaning to the Under, but I won't make it a best bet. Goff averaged 261.1 passing yards per game in 2022, but I'll tell you our simulations like the Under on that prop. I'll take the Over on Goff's passing completions, but the Under on longest passing completion. I have no read on Goff's interception number, but wouldn't mind a flier on him to throw one.
Patrick Mahomes props
Passing touchdowns: 2.5 (Over +126, Under -174)
Passing yards: 286.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: OFF
Passing completions: 24.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
If I'm leaning to the Under, I'm not going to be playing Mahomes' passing touchdown number. Not much value there unless you really love the juicy Under and want to stick it in a same-game parlay. As far as passing yards, the lean is to the Over. Mahomes averaged 308.8 passing yards per game last year. I will take the Under on his longest passing completion being 38.5 yards, and will take Mahomes to throw an interception at -111 as well.
Props to consider
Skyy Moore receiving yards: Over 45.5 (-129). If there's a wide receiver who could serve as Mahomes' new No. 1 on Thursday night, Moore is certainly a candidate. The second-year wideout caught just 22 passes for 250 yards in his rookie season, but is going to be given the opportunity to step up in the passing game in 2023.
Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards: Over 31.5 (-131). Gibbs is assumed by many to be Detroit's new receiving back. One big gain off a screen could guarantee we hit this number.
Harrison Butker made field goals: Over 1.5 (-109). If Kelce is out Thursday night, Mahomes loses his No. 1 red-zone threat. That should open the door for the Chiefs to stall in the red zone at least once. Give me Butker to make two field goals in Week 1.
David Montgomery anytime TD (+102)
