The National League playoff picture was already muddled entering the weekend, and the events that then transpired made everything more confusing: the Colorado Rockies took three of four from the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Cardinals ran their winning streak to five. As a result, both are now 2 1/2 games back in the wild card hunt -- notable, given that six teams (including the two tied for the NL East lead) are competing for those two spots, and they're all within three games of each other.
| Team | W-L | Win% | Run Diff | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
64-51 | .557 | 77 | -- (tied in NLE) | |
65-52 | .556 | 29 | -- (tied in NLE) | |
Brewers | 67-54 | .554 | 26 | -- |
Dodgers | 64-55 | .538 | 96 | 2 |
Cardinals | 63-55 | .534 | 45 | 2.5 |
Rockies | 63-55 | .534 | -17 | 2.5 |
How did the Rockies and Cardinals find themselves back in the thick of things? Let's dissect.
The Rockies have one of baseball's best records over their last 30, and are now 1 1/2 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, having gained two games in that time. Even with that surge, the Rockies find themselves with a 5-7 record in August and a negative run differential in 22 games since the All-Star break. Running into the red is nothing new for Colorado -- its 57-61 Pythagorean record is the second "luckiest" in baseball, behind the Seattle Mariners.
Whatever you make of the Rockies and their sustainability, do credit the likes of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Garrett Hampson for their recent run -- each has an OPS over .800 the past four weeks in ample playing time. The Rockies have received good pitching from Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray as well.
Alas, closer Wade Davis has been charged with four losses in his last 11 appearances. One can't help but to wonder if the Rockies would be in first if Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw were having typical years rather than combining for an ERA over 6.00 in 130-plus innings pitched. The Rockies bullpen, predictably, also leads the NL in "meltdowns", with 70. So much for being lucky, huh?
One needn't wonder what SportsLine thinks the Rockies' postseason odds are -- six percent to win the NL West and just below 23 percent to reach the postseason, with that representing the worst odds among the nine NL teams in serious contention.
The Cardinals too have one of the best records in the sport over their last 30 games. They, more so than the Rockies, have recency bias working in their favor. Since firing manager Mike Matheny, who had guided the club to a 47-46 start, the Cardinals have won 16 of their 25 games under interim skip Mike Shildt. Oh, and that's with seven Cardinals hitting the DL in that span, including ace Carlos Martinez and starting outfielders Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neill.
Unlike the Rockies, who can see first place in the division just ahead, the Cardinals are 5 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. They have a better run differential than the second-place Milwaukee Brewers, however, and they've outscored their opponents by 1.4 runs per game since the All-Star break -- that rate would rank third in the majors, behind the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros, were it their full-season figure.
Much of the credit for the Cardinals' recent run has been given to Matt Carpenter -- or, at least, Matt Carpenter's salsa. He's hitting .326/.442/.804 over the last four weeks with 13 homers in 24 games. Yadier Molina, the since-injured Yairo Munoz, and Harrison Bader have done their parts, too. On the pitching side, Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have helped make up for Martinez's absence, while St. Louis' depth has been on display through the contributions of Austin Gomber and Daniel Poncedeleon, as well as the likes of Mike Mayers and Dakota Hudson in the bullpen.
SportsLine gives the Cardinals a five percent shot at winning the division and a 31 percent chance at cracking the tournament overall.
