LSU suffered its second defeat of the season at Ole Miss, 55-49 on Saturday night, and that has caused a bit of a shakeup in the New Year's Six bowls. The Tigers are out getting replaced by Oklahoma in that group of 12 teams. Also, Tulane has been replaced by Fresno State as the projected Group of Five representative. The Bulldogs are currently in the AP top 25 and should be favored every time they take the field for the rest of the season.
The Orange Bowl and Peach Bowl matchups are unchanged from last week. Fresno State replaces Tulane in the Fiesta Bowl projected to face USC. The Trojans are swapping spots with Washington in the projection so that USC is not in the Cotton Bowl in consecutive seasons. Oklahoma takes LSU's spot in the Cotton Bowl.
Ole Miss is now projected to end the season ranked higher than North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are in the New Year's Six instead because they are the highest-ranked team available for the ACC contracted spot in the Orange Bowl.
While there was a bit of chaos in the New Year's Six games, the College Football Playoff projection remains unchanged this week. Georgia had the closest game among the projected CFP teams with a 27-20 win at Auburn. The Bulldogs have not been overly impressive in their two SEC wins so far. They will have to step it up a notch next week when undefeated Kentucky visits.
College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinal | |
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Florida State |
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | USC vs. Fresno State |
Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | North Carolina vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 30 | Peach Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Alabama vs. Penn State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Washington vs. Oklahoma |
These changes created a ripple through the bowl matchups involving Big 12 and SEC teams. Most notably, Ole Miss moved into the SEC spot in the Citrus Bowl against Wisconsin. Kansas State also moves in to the Big 12 bid in the Alamo Bowl against Oregon.
There are now seven teams projected into bowl games with just five wins. That would be a record, of course, but I do not expect it to last. As teams in the middle of conferences start to sort things out, this number tends to dwindle considerably.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 5.
