Saints at Giants -- Week 14

Where: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J. (FieldTurf, outdoors)

When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Spread: Giants by 5

Forecast: cloudy with a low of 42 degrees and a high of 48

Records: Saints--5-7 (2-2 NFC South); Giants--7-5 (2-3 NFC East)

Past results: Two most recent meetings—Nov. 29, 2012: Saints 49, Giants 24 in New Orleans; Oct. 18, 2009: Saints 48, Giants 27 in New Orleans. Series record: Giants lead 14-12 and are 12-4 at home.

What matters: Confidence. Back-to-back losses have killed the momentum the Saints had after they climbed out of an 0-4 hole to get to 5-5. The question now is whether they really believe they can win out and finish above .500 in what is becoming a lost year without suspended coach Sean Payton. Atlanta gave the Saints every chance to rally from a 17-0 deficit in their last game, but Drew Brees pressed too much, throwing a career-high five interceptions while also being victimized by key drops from his receivers and some shoddy pass protection. If the Saints are motivated and mistake-free, they can beat the Giants. If they are as sloppy as they have been the past two weeks, this one could get ugly. The Giants, losers of three of their last four, have to be questioning themselves, too. Everyone remembers last year’s rise from 6-6 to Super Bowl champion, but New York missed the playoffs in 2009 and 2010 after fading down the stretch.

Who matters: Brees and Eli Manning. Neither one is having a banner year. Brees has thrown 16 interceptions, tying for the NFL high, and the Giants have 18 picks, playing into his recent weakness. Manning has thrown only 16 TD passes, ranking in the bottom half of the league. Take away a flurry of picks in the last two weeks, though, and Brees’s numbers are still very good. He leads the NFL with 31 TD passes and has thrown for 3,674 yards, the fourth highest total. Manning has not thrown for 300 yards since Oct. 21 against Washington and dealt with questions about a tired arm before bouncing back after a bye week with a solid outing against Green Bay. He has been protected well, (14 sacks), but he will have to play the rest of the way without LT Sean Locklear, who suffered a knee injury on Monday. The QB who finds his form will give his team a huge edge.

Key matchups: Saints OTs Zach Strief and Jermon Bushrod vs. Giants DEs Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. Granted, the Giants move their ends around and bring in Osi Omenyiora on passing downs, but the Saints have to win on first down. The way Strief and Tuck have played recently, this could be a pillow fight. Strief struggled with his mobility against the Falcons after coming back from a groin injury that sidelined him for the previous three games. Tuck has only three sacks (and two came in one game). If he beats Strief, it will be a long day for New Orleans. Tuck (6.5 sacks) is playing better than Bushrod. … Giants receivers vs. Saints CBs Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson. Victor Cruz had nine catches for 157 yards vs. the Saints last year, but Greer and Robinson are coming off their best game. Greer blanketed Falcons WR Roddy White, helping limit him to one catch, and Atlanta did next to nothing in the air. Cruz, who torched Washington’s secondary twice but struggled against everyone else in the last two months, will have to work for his yards.

Injuries of note: The Saints are healthy. Other than backup OT Charles Brown and nickel corner Corey White, who are out with knee injuries, everyone is available.

Connections: Saints defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo served in the same position for the Giants from 2007-08, helping them win the Super Bowl in his first year there. Eli Manning is a New Orleans native and the son of long-time Saints QB Archie Manning. … Giants punter Sean Weatherford played for the Saints from 2006-08.

Inside stuff: The Saints are much more comfortable in Spagnuolo’s scheme than earlier in the year. Although they are still on pace to break the NFL record for yards allowed in a season, the defense has played well four weeks in a row. Players say they know what they are supposed to do before each snap. Confusion and uncertainty were huge problems in the first half of the season, but no longer.

Stats you should know: The Saints held the Falcons to one third down conversion in 11 attempts in their last game and forced five consecutive three-and-outs at one point. … New Orleans’ three-game winning streak over New York is its longest. … Manning is 0-3 vs. the Saints, and the Giants have lost by at least 21 points each time. … The Saints are No. 1 in the NFL in touchdown percentage in the red zone, getting 26 TDs in 37 chances, and No. 1 in the NFL in TD drives of 80 yards or more with 28.

Record watch: For the first time in a long time, Brees cannot extend his streak of games with a TD pass. The Falcons stopped it at 54.

Bulletin board quote: “We know what we're going to probably get, and it's much easier.”
--Jason Pierre-Paul on the advantage of preparing for Brees instead of Robert Griffin III

Looking ahead: The Saints return to New Orleans to face Tampa Bay. If they beat the Giants, they will at least still have a playoff pulse. They won’t be officially eliminated if they lose but definitely should begin making plans for the offseason.

Prediction: Giants 27-24

Follow Saints reporter Guerry Smith on twitter @CBSSaints.