Prisco's Week 10 picks, plus projecting playoff picture, Colts owner Jim Irsay denies tanking after shakeup

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Hello, fine folks, and happy Wednesday. Week 10 is upon us, which means we are officially over the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season. John Breech is taking the day to celebrate the forthcoming Bengals stretch run, so you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the league.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We've got Week 10 predictions, best bets for the schedule, playoff projections and more:

Today's show: Best bets for Week 10 matchups

Tyler Sullivan joined Will Brinson on Wednesday's "Pick Six NFL Podcast," and the guys identified some of their favorite bets and predictions for the Week 10 slate. Some highlights:

Both Brinson and Sully are big on the Vikings as road underdogs against Buffalo, primarily because of Josh Allen's elbow injury. "I think Buffalo might just sit him," Brinson argued, "even if he's 'healthy,'" to preserve the QB for the stretch run.
It's possible, Brinson said, that the Buccaneers could use their ugly Rams win as a "launching pad" for a return to form, especially getting the Seahawks on a neutral field in Germany this week. But both guys are still too enamored with Seattle's emergence to confidently back Tampa Bay, calling the Seahawks a sneaky contender in the NFC.
"Oddsmakers have officially given up on the Packers," Sully noted, and he's with them, calling Dallas an obvious play in Mike McCarthy's return to Green Bay. "Micah Parsons is gonna wreck the game," he argued, also forecasting a big performance from Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott on the ground.

Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Prisco's Picks: Cowboys roll over Packers, 49ers edge Chargers

Pete Prisco went 9-4 in straight-up picks in Week 9. Now he's back with predictions for every single Week 10 matchup. Here's a sampling of his forecast for a schedule full of intriguing showdowns (including a Bills matchup in which, unlike his "Pick Six" peers, he's quite confident in Buffalo):

Bills 30, Vikings 20: This is the big game of the week. That could be trouble for Kirk Cousins, who hasn't played well in them. The Bills haven't looked great on offense in the last game and half, but that will change here if Josh Allen can play.
Cowboys 27, Packers 16: This is the return of Mike McCarthy to Green Bay. The Cowboys coach isn't making a big deal of it, but you can bet his players will. The Packers are reeling. They are lifeless on offense, and injuries have crippled them.
49ers 27, Chargers 20: The Chargers are playing consecutive road games, while the 49ers are coming off a bye. That's a bad combo, but what's even worse is the Chargers' run defense against San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey will run wild.

3. Playoff picture projections: Patriots edge Bengals in tight AFC

John Breech has stockpiled all of the latest SportsLine simulations for the rest of the 2022 season to forecast the entire playoff picture. Here's a look at which teams are projected to make it, and which ones are on the outskirts based on their schedules:

AFC: 1. Bills, 2. Chiefs, 3. Ravens, 4. Titans, 5. Dolphins, 6. Patriots, 7. Chargers
Missed: Jets (55.2%), Bengals (30%), Browns (12.8%)

NFC: 1. Eagles, 2. Vikings, 3. Seahawks, 4. Buccaneers, 5. Cowboys, 6. Giants, 7. 49ers
Missed: Falcons (22.6%), Saints (12.8%), Rams (9.9%)

Catch the full rundown of playoff projections right here.

4. Colts drama: Irsay denies tanking; 2023 mock nets Indy a QB

Indianapolis is not lacking for headlines in the wake of the Colts' surprise move to replace Frank Reich with former Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday. Here's the latest surrounding the team's switch-up on the sidelines:

Jim Irsay denies Colts are tanking: And the owner suggests Matt Ryan might play again this year
Saturday names Parks Frazier new play-caller: The 30-year-old has been a Colts assistant since 2018
Reich reflects on dismissal as head coach: 'It hurts,' he admitted, while supporting Irsay's leadership
2023 mock draft: Chris Trapasso has the Colts getting Kentucky's Will Levis at No. 5 overall

5. QB Power Rankings: Mahomes rules; Brady back in top 10

CBS Sports illustration (Keytron Jordan)

Every week throughout the season, we rank all 32 starting QBs based on 2022 performance. Here's a look at some of the biggest movers entering Week 10 behind Patrick Mahomes, who reigns supreme after using his legs to beat the Titans in prime time; including Tom Brady, whose late-game darts helped the Buccaneers down the Rams; and Kirk Cousins, who's been a resilient figurehead for a Vikings team good in close contests.

4. Geno Smith (Seahawks), +1
7. Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), +2
8. Tom Brady (Buccaneers), +3
10. Kirk Cousins (Vikings), +2
12. Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), +2