What a crazy Week 10 in the NFL, one of the more entertaining Sundays of the season. The Detroit Lions won a shootout against the Los Angeles Chargers on a last-second field goal and the Cleveland Browns overcame a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to upset the Baltimore Ravens (Cleveland only led for 40 seconds!).
This is the first week in NFL history in which five games ended with a game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation, adding to the drama that unfolded in the Week 10 slate of Sunday games. There are plenty of playoff implications that are coming into focus as the calendar hits mid-November, adding even more overreactions as the second half of the season begins.
Which are overreactions and which are reality? The Sunday slate of games evidenced some truths around the league.
Colts are a playoff contender in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Colts are .500 after a win over the Patriots, quite frankly taking care of business against the worst team in the conference. After Sunday's win, the Colts are currently 10th in the AFC, sitting within striking distance of a playoff berth.
Sure, the Colts are in the playoff hunt, but so are 12 other teams in the AFC. A win over the Patriots was needed to stay in the hunt, but Indianapolis will need more from backup quarterback Gardner Minshew down the stretch.
The bye week will be beneficial for Indianapolis, as the Colts have the Buccaneers (home), Titans (away), Bengals (away), Steelers (home), Falcons (away), Raiders (home), Texans (home) to close out the year. There's at least four winnable games there on a favorable schedule. Perhaps 9-8 could be enough for Indianapolis to get in, but the Colts will have to finish 10-7 to significantly help their playoff odds.
They have a shot.
Texans are going to win the AFC South
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Easy to think this right now with Houston's massive win over Cincinnati (on the road) and Jacksonville's blowout loss to San Francisco. The Texans (5-4) sit one game behind the Jaguars (6-3) as a result, setting up a race in mid-November. Should we mention Houston has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Jacksonville as well?
The Texans have the looks of a playoff team with C.J. Stroud clearly being a franchise quarterback -- and taking this organization to new heights -- and the schedule is certainly in their favor. Here are the remaining games for both teams:
- Texans: vs. Cardinals, vs. Jaguars, vs. Broncos, at Jets, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts
- Jaguars: vs. Titans, at Texans, vs. Bengals, at Browns, vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans
Houston appears to have the easier road, but let's revisit this after the Week 12 showdown against Jacksonville. That will paint a clearer picture, but the Texans deserve to be in the conversation.
Bengals are going to miss the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Heading into mid-November, Cincinnati is in last place in the AFC North (even though the Bengals are 5-4). Sunday's loss to the Texans hurt, especially with the Browns coming back to beat the Ravens in Baltimore and the Steelers holding on to beat the Packers -- as both teams are now 6-3.
Cincinnati's playoff fate seems to be coming to a head over the next three weeks. The Bengals get the Ravens in Baltimore, the Steelers at home, and the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Thursday's showdown in Baltimore may be the biggest game of the year for Cincinnati, as it can't afford to go down to .500 (and give the Ravens a three-game lead with the head-to-head tiebreaker over them).
The Bengals are currently out of the last playoff spot via the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Texans. With all the teams in the playoff mix in the AFC, they have to start stringing together some wins again -- starting this week. Fortunately, Cincinnati has the head-to-head win over Buffalo.
Ravens can't be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Ravens were in the making of another massive blowout victory at home, leading the Browns 31-17 in the fourth quarter of a game they essentially dominated through the first three quarters. Then Baltimore went eight plays for 23 yards the rest of the way, starting with a Lamar Jackson interception with Baltimore up, 31-24, that was returned for a touchdown with 8:18 left.
Jackson couldn't get the Ravens down the field to stretch the lead, going 1 of 4 for 11 yards with an interception in the final two possessions. The Browns never had a AFC North road victory when trailing by 14-plus points prior to Sunday, showcasing the wrong side of history the Ravens were on.
This has been a trend in Baltimore. The Ravens have lost nine games when leading by seven-plus points in the fourth quarter, the most by any team in any three-year span in NFL history. New offensive coordinator, same issues late.
As good as Baltimore is, hard to take them seriously as a Super Bowl contender with the blown leads late.
Dennis Allen should be fired as Saints head coach
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Amazing how Allen got a second head coaching job in the first place, especially since his first go-around was a disaster. The Saints had a week to prepare for Josh Dobbs -- who hasn't been on the Vikings for two weeks yet -- and their defense gave up 27 points (which is Allen's speciality).
The offense was actually better when Jameis Winston was in there over Derek Carr (who left with an injury), showcasing the problems they have on that side of the ball. With their schedule, the Saints should be better than the 5-5 record they currently possess -- way above the Falcons and Buccaneers at this stage.
Instead, the Saints aren't much of a contender for anything. They still control their division fate (play the Falcons twice and Buccaneers once in final seven games), but this team should be better with its weak schedule. That's on Allen, who is 20-43 as a head coach.
This is who Allen is. He's not getting the Saints to where they need to go.
Steelers are a playoff team
Overreaction or reality: Reality
At this point, hands are just thrown up with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 6-3 and has been outgained in every game this season, the first team in NFL history to have a winning record despite being outgained in each of the first nine games. This is the best record during any nine-game single-season streak of being outgained in NFL history.
Pittsburgh recorded its 19th win without scoring 25-plus points in the past three seasons, tied for the most in any three-year span since 2000. No matter how poor the Steelers are offensively, they find ways to win games.
The Steelers are running the ball more efficiently now, using that and their strong defense to control the flow of the game. Pittsburgh rushed for 205 yards this week after rushing for 166 the week prior, a formula that's working for a team that struggles to move the ball.
Pittsburgh can only get better, even with the brutal schedule looming (at Cleveland, at Cincinnati). The Steelers may just be a playoff team, surviving the brutal AFC North.
Lions are Eagles biggest threat in NFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Cowboys beat the Giants by 32 points and the 49ers beat the Jaguars by 31. Both San Francisco and Dallas could be more talented teams, yet Detroit is the one with the better record at 7-2 -- one game behind Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Lions put up 41 points and 533 yards in winning a shootout against the Chargers. The key part of that game was Detroit not allowing a sack and giving up just two quarterback hits against a Los Angeles pass rush that has Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Lions' offensive line can neutralize an Eagles defensive line that is excellent at getting to the quarterback, something the 49ers and Cowboys have struggled with this year late in games.
Detroit has a favorable schedule over the next month before closing with Minnesota twice and Dallas in its final three games. Based on the schedule set up, the Lions could actually seize home-field advantage in the NFC.
Falcons should go back to Desmond Ridder at QB
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Does it really matter at this point? The Falcons couldn't even beat a Cardinals team that had a quarterback (Kyler Murray) not play a game in nearly a year. Taylor Heinicke went 8 of 15 for 55 yards with a touchdown and Desmond Ridder went 4 of 6 for 39 yards after filling in for Heinicke (who left with a hamstring injury).
Arthur Smith said he'll evaluate the Falcons' starting quarterback situation during the bye week and pick one to start for the remainder of the year. When Atlanta can't beat Arizona to stay in the NFC South race, the whole starting quarterback position is moot -- whether its Heinicke or Ridder.
The Falcons don't have a franchise quarterback and the offense isn't good enough. Heinicke and Ridder are basically the same player.
