With his ability to stuff the stat sheet, Luka Doncic is a frequent target with NBA prop bets whenever the Mavericks take the court. They'll do so at home on Thursday against Kevin Durant and the Suns. Doncic has 30 double-doubles across 47 games this season, but Phoenix has done a great job of limiting his effect on the box score in recent matchups. Doncic has just one double-double across his last 11 games versus the Suns but still carries -333 NBA prop odds to log a double-double on Thursday.

Based on recent history, this appears to be an NBA player prop to steer clear of. However, there are lots of other prop bets involving Doncic, Durant, Kyrie Irving and Devin Booker which are much more appealing. With 24 teams in action on Thursday, there is no shortage of favorable NBA prop lines that you could combine into a parlay bet. Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Thursday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

For Thursday's NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model's NBA prop picks at SportsLine

Top NBA prop bet for Thursday

After simulating every game on Thursday's NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking Under 30.5 points for Warriors guard Stephen Curry at -125 odds. Ever since scoring a season-high of 60 points versus Atlanta on Feb. 3, Curry's seen a slight downtick in scoring. He's gone under 30.5 points in five of his seven games since then, averaging 27.4 points over that stretch. Coming off an extended break thanks to All-Star Weekend, it's also important to note that Curry is averaging 26.8 points this season when he's coming off at least three days of rest.

The Warriors host the Lakers tonight, and L.A. has ramped up its defensive efforts as of late. It is allowing just 113.9 PPG in February, which puts it in the top 10 of the NBA, compared to 117.6 PPG allowed prior to this month. The Lakers can also lock down on individual high scorers as they didn't allow an opposing player to reach even 20 points scored in their last two contests before the All-Star break. The model sees value in under 30.5 points (-125) as it projects Curry to finish with 28.2 points. You can see which other NBA picks to back here.

All NBA prop bets for Thursday

See Magic vs. Cavaliers props here
See Pistons vs. Pacers props here
See Knicks vs. 76ers props here
See Nets vs. Raptors props here
See Suns vs. Mavericks props here
See Celtics vs. Bulls props here
See Rockets vs. Pelicans props here
See Clippers vs. Thunder props here
See Wizards vs. Nuggets props here
See Hornets vs. Jazz props here
See Lakers vs. Warriors props here
See Spurs vs. Kings props here

How to make NBA prop picks for Thursday

The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Thursday's schedule. You can only see the model's NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine

Which NBA prop picks should you target on Thursday? Visit SportsLine now to see the NBA best bets from an advanced model that is on a 60-36 run on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.