One of the top contenders to win the NBA MVP award will match up with the overwhelming Rookie of the Year favorite on Thursday when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC take on Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio. NBA prop bettors who love defense will circle this matchup with player props as Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in steals (2.1), while Wembanyama tops the league in blocks (3.3). While SGA's NBA props total for steals comes in below his average at 1.5, Wemby's blocks bar for tonight is above his season average at 3.5.

Based on season averages, Gilgeous-Alexander's prop bet looks more attractive, especially after seeing how sloppy San Antonio is with the basketball. The Spurs are allowing the second-most steals per game by the opponent this season, and SGA had a career-high of seven steals versus San Antonio earlier this season. What other Thursday NBA props have overwhelming evidence to support one side? Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Thursday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 63-39 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

For Thursday's NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model's NBA prop picks at SportsLine

Top NBA prop bet for Thursday

After simulating every game on Thursday's NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking under 5.5 made 3-pointers for Warriors guard Steph Curry at -157 odds. After an exhausting All-Star Weekend, Curry has started the post-All-Star break a bit sluggish. He's knocked down just 28% of his 3-point attempts since then compared to 46.2% before the break. He's gone under 5.5 made 3-pointers in each of his last three games and has actually gone under 4.5 made 3-pointers in each of those.

The Warriors visit the Knicks on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET, and New York's style of play will limit 3-point opportunities for Curry. The Knicks play at the league's slowest pace, which reduces the number of possessions for the opponent as well. Additionally, while Curry started the season blistering on the road, going Over 5.5 made 3-pointers in six of his first seven away games, he's gone over that total in just five of his 18 road games since then. The model projects that trend to continue, giving value to the Under (-157). You can see which other NBA picks to back here.

All NBA prop bets for Thursday's NBA schedule

7 p.m. ET: Bucks vs. Hornets
See Hornets vs. Bucks props here

7 p.m. ET: Jazz vs. Magic
See Magic vs. Jazz props here

7:30 p.m. ET: Hawks vs. Nets
See Nets vs. Hawks props here

7:30 p.m. ET: Warriors vs. Knicks
See Knicks vs. Warriors props here

8:30 p.m. ET: Thunder vs. Spurs
See Spurs vs. Thunder props here

9 p.m. ET: Rockets vs. Suns
See Suns vs. Rockets props here

10 p.m. ET Heat vs. Nuggets
See Nuggets vs. Heat props here

10:30 p.m. ET: Wizards vs. Lakers
See Lakers vs. Wizards props here

How to make NBA prop picks for Thursday

The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Thursday's schedule. You can only see the model's NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine

Which NBA prop picks should you target on Thursday? Visit SportsLine now to see the NBA best bets from an advanced model that is on a 63-39 run on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.