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Western Conference matchups highlight the Friday NBA schedule and could be potential playoff previews. Thunder vs. Rockets (+6.5) at 8 p.m. ET and Warriors vs. Nuggets (+1) at 10 p.m. ET feature several of league's biggest stars to target with NBA player props. MVP winners Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic will star in the later contest, while this year's MVP favorite, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-3000 at Caesars Sportsbook) highlights the first game. The league's leading scorer at 32.8 points per game, SGA has an over/under of 31.5 points in his latest NBA player props on multiple betting apps. He went off for 51 points in his last game versus Houston, so is the Over the side to back in Friday's NBA prop picks?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 steals + blocks (-180)
The three-time MVP had a season-high of five steals the last time he faced Golden State while also adding a block. He's coming off a 61-point triple-double, with a pair of steals on Tuesday and was then rested in Wednesday's game, so he'll be fresh for tonight. Additionally, his success in collecting steals and blocks versus the Warriors dates back before just his last matchup with them, as Jokic has averaged 3.6 steals plus blocks over his last five games against Golden State.
"With 1.54 steals and 0.67 blocks projected the model would set this line at -230 to -250 and other books have it at -200 so you should act now on this line," Oh said. "....This is going to be a first quarter cover." DraftKings offers the best odds at -180.
LeBron James Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-184)
James drilled five 3-pointers on eight attempts in Thursday's loss to the Warriors, marking his third straight game with multiple made 3-pointers. He was in a bit of a shooting slump after returning from a two-week absence due to injury in going 1 for 13 from beyond the arc. However, he's clearly broken out of that and is draining 52.9% of his attempts since then. He also has just the opponent to hit the Over with this NBA player prop as L.A. takes on New Orleans, which has allowed the third-most 3-pointers this season.
"LeBron has been feeling it from three point range at home this season with a massive 2.7 avg (vs 1.7 on the road) and a massive 75% over rate at home (vs 42.4% on the road)," Oh revealed, with the best odds of -184 being at FanDuel.
DeMar DeRozan Over 3.5 rebounds (+105)
The veteran doubled this line with seven boards in his last game, and he also had seven rebounds in his last matchup against the Hornets, who are Sacramento's Friday opponent. Charlotte has the lowest FG percentage, the lowest 2P percentage, and the third-lowest 3P percentage in the NBA, which means lots of missed shots and rebounding opportunities. Oh also points out that DeRozan feasts on some of the league's worse teams, which makes the Over the clear side to back.
"The Kings are double digit favorites and DeRozan likes to pick on the weak," stated Oh. "He has had 4+ reb in 10 of 14 games where the Kings were favored by at least -8.5 including games where he played just 17 and 26 minutes." DraftKings is one of the few sportsbooks that have this as a plus-money prop at +105.
Max Strus Over 8.5 points (-125)
Oh's projection has Strus at nearly 11 points considering the Cavs are facing a sinking Spurs team that's lost five of its last six games. These teams just played last Thursday, and Strus scored 18 points, which is his second-most this season, on 7 of 10 shooting. Additionally, San Antonio has shown a tendency to allow opposing small forwards to go off against it as the Spurs allowed 18 points to Denver's Hunter Tyson on Wednesday, which was Tyson's career-high and the first time he reached double-digits in his two-year NBA career.
"Last season this line would have been 11.5 as he scored 9+ in 67% of his games," Oh said of Strus. "He was showing signs of returning to being a 10-12 pt per game scorer with a string of 7 straight overs and a jump from around 9 per game to 10.5 (10-5 over 8.5) in the last month." BetMGM currently has the best odds at -125.
Nick Richards Over 9.5 points + assists (-120)
The Suns remain without Kevin Durant (ankle), and someone needs to make up for the 36.5 minutes per game that Durant was logging. Other Suns big men, Bol Bol and Mason Plumlee, were DNPs in Phoenix's last game, even with Durant sidelined as Richards played 30-plus minutes and had 13 points. Over his last three games with Durant sidelined, Richards has averaged 10.3 points plus assists, and Oh likes Richards to hit this Over with his points alone.
"Richards is projected for 9.8 points so we have a greater than 50% chance of covering just on points allowing his 0.8 assists to be gravy on top (line is +$$$ o0.5 assist)," Oh said, with the best odds of -120 coming at bet365.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You've seen the model's NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
