The final evening of 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament Group Play action arrives on Tuesday. One key matchup pits the Milwaukee Bucks against the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami. Milwaukee won the first matchup between these teams this season, and the Bucks are 12-5 overall, while Miami is 4-1 at home and 10-7 overall. Jimmy Butler (ankle) and Tyler Herro (ankle) are out for Miami. Khris Middleton (Achilles) is listed as questionable for Milwaukee, with Jae Crowder (adductor) ruled out.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Bucks as 4-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 228.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 6 of the 2023-24 NBA season on an 86-50 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat and locked in its NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -4
  • Bucks vs. Heat over/under: 228.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -175, Heat +147
  • Milwaukee: The Bucks are 6-10-1 against the spread this season
  • Miami: The Heat are 8-9 against the spread this season
  • Bucks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee's offense is scoring almost 1.18 points per possession this season, and the Bucks are led by two top-tier stars. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.7 points and 10.3 rebounds per game for the Bucks this season, including 34.3 points and 11.4 rebounds in the last eight games. The two-time NBA MVP is also a defensive force, and Antetokounmpo is flanked by Damian Lillard. Lillard is a seven-time All-NBA selection, and he is playing exceedingly well right now, averaging 28.5 points and 8.7 assists per game in the last six outings.

Milwaukee's offense has raised its level in scoring more than 1.2 points per possession in the last 10 games, and the Bucks have elite offensive numbers this season. The Bucks are in the top three of the league in field goal percentage (49.6%) and 2-point percentage (58.3%), and Milwaukee also ranks in the top tier in free throw creation (26.1 attempts per game) and turnover avoidance (13.4 per game). Milwaukee also projects to be effective from beyond the 3-point arc, with Miami allowing 38.1% shooting to opponents from long range. See which team to pick here

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has the better defensive foundation in this game. While the Bucks are allowing 1.15 points per possession this season, the Heat are giving up only 1.10 points per possession. That ranks in the top eight of the NBA, and Miami is in the top three of the league in free throw prevention (19.2 attempts allowed per game) and turnover creation (16.4 per game). Miami is in the top five of the league in steals per game (8.9) and second-chance points allowed (12.1 per game), and the Heat are in the top ten of the league in points allowed in the paint (12.1 per game). 

On offense, Miami is potent from 3-point range, making 37.8% of long-range attempts. The Heat are also in the top five of the league in free throw accuracy, making 85.3% of attempts, and Miami commits only 13.5 turnovers per contest. The Bucks also create only 12.7 turnovers per game on defense, giving the Heat license to be aggressive on the offensive side. See which team to pick here

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

The model has simulated Bucks vs. Heat 10,000 times and is leaning Under the total, projecting 228 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the picks at SportsLine

Who wins Bucks vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that is on an 86-50 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.