There is no denying Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers' talent. But his price on Underdog Fantasy is simply too high for various reasons. He is currently going at an ADP of 38 and is WR25. I have Flowers ranked 55th in my most recent Best Ball rankings on SportsLine.
Last season Flowers finished as WR29 and was ranked 32 among wide receivers in Fantasy points per game. The big factor here is tight end Mark Andrews missed six regular season games last year, and Andrews is a top target for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Of Flowers' five touchdowns in 2023, four came when Mark Andrews was out. Especially in Underdog Fantasy's half-point PPR format, we need to remember that we are touchdown hunting. I like to target receivers, especially high in the draft, who are red zone targets.
While Flowers is a dynamic playmaker, I still worry that he lacks the touchdown upside that receivers behind him in ADP have. Receivers like Amari Cooper, George Pickens and Calvin Ridley are behind Flowers in ADP but have better touchdown upside. I have all three of those receivers ranked higher than Flowers.
One factor that I downgrade Flowers for is Andrews' return this season. But the Ravens could also use more two tight end sets with tight end Isaiah Likely, who proved to be a very capable weapon while Andrews was out last season. There also are good camp reports about wide receivers Rashod Bateman and rookie Devontez Walker. So Flowers could be facing more target competition altogether in the Ravens' offense.
Another competition factor on his own team is the Ravens added running back Derrick Henry in free agency. Henry has an ADP of 31 on Underdog Fantasy. He is still a workhorse running back who should garner most of the touches close to the goal line.
When you think of the anytime touchdown market in betting for Week 1 of the NFL season, think about who would be most likely to score a touchdown, per Vegas odds. I'm guessing the odds of most likely to score a touchdown will be in order: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and then Zay Flowers. Being the fourth most likely to score a touchdown on your own team is not a player I'm looking to target in the top 40 of Best Ball drafts.
This is why I'm nearly 20 picks lower on Flowers than ADP in Best Ball drafts. I also have Henry, Jackson, and Andrews all ranked higher than Flowers. Be sure to check out my full updated Best Ball rankings on SportsLine here.
