Christian McCaffrey is the No. 1 running back coming into this season, and the likely No. 1 overall pick in the majority of leagues. He earned that spot after the way he played in 2023, and hopefully he'll have a repeat performance this year.
Last season, McCaffrey had over 100 PPR points more than the No. 2 running back in Breece Hall (376-274), and McCaffrey averaged a league-best 23.5 PPR points per game. Kyren Williams was No. 2 at 20.5.
This is the fifth time McCaffrey has averaged more than 20 PPR points per game in his seven-year career, including four times averaging at least 23.1 points. He's amazing, even at 28, and he's set up for success again in San Francisco's offense.
However, there are some reasons for concern. He had 339 total touches in the regular season (272 carries) and 78 more total touches in three playoff games (59). That's a lot of work, and we'll see if the 49ers try to ease his workload during the season with Elijah Mitchell, Isaac Guerendo or Jordan Mason.
Along with that, it's hard to repeat as the No. 1 running back. The last time that happened was 2002-03 with Priest Holmes. Legends like LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and even McCaffrey have failed to accomplish this feat.
So what happens if McCaffrey isn't the No. 1 running back this season? Who could replace him? Six likely candidates could claim the top spot: Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor and Williams.
All of these running backs should be drafted in the first two rounds in the majority of leagues, and all of them have the chance to be special. But who's the best of the bunch? Let's break them down heading into the 2024 campaign.
Breece Hall
- 2023 stats: 223 carries, 994 yards, five touchdowns and 76 catches, 591 yards, four touchdowns on 95 targets
- Stats that get your attention: Hall led all running backs in targets last season, and he was second in targets per game (5.6) behind Alvin Kamara (6.6). It's the fourth-most targets ever for a Jets running back behind Richie Anderson (125 in 2000), Adrian Murrell (100 in 1995) and Curtis Martin (96 in 2000). ... Hall's 95 targets is the 11th time a running back had at least 95 targets in the past five seasons, joining McCaffrey (142 targets in 2019 and 108 in 2022), Austin Ekeler (127 in 2022 and 108 in 2019), J.D. McKissic (110 in 2020), Kamara (107 in 2020 and 97 in 2019), Tarik Cohen (104 in 2019), Leonard Fournette (100 in 2019) and James White (95 in 2019). Of those running backs, McCaffrey (twice), Ekeler (2022), Kamara (2020) and Hall finished either first or second in Fantasy points. ... Hall averaged 5.8 yards per carry in 2022 in seven games and 4.5 yards per carry in 2023. In 2022, he only had two games under 4.9 yards per carry, but he had 10 games at 3.6 yards per carry or less in 2023.
- How he gets to No. 1: Hall will be two years removed from the ACL tear he suffered in 2022, so he should be more explosive, which is a scary thought. The Jets offense should improve this season with the healthy return of Aaron Rodgers (Achilles), offensive line upgrades with Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses, Olu Fashanu and Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles) back and better weapons at receiver with Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley joining Garrett Wilson. It's unlikely Hall stays as involved in the passing game as he did in 2023, but his rushing production should spike. He has the potential for 2,000 total yards, 15 total touchdowns and 50 receptions, which is why he's the easy choice for me as the No. 2 running back this season.
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Bijan Robinson
- 2023 stats: 214 carries, 976 yards, four touchdowns and 58 catches, 487 yards, four touchdowns on 86 targets
- Stats that get your attention: Following Atlanta's bye in Week 11 in 2023, Robinson scored at least 19 PPR points in four of seven games, including two games with at least 25 PPR points. He had at least 18 total touches in five of those outings. ... Robinson finished No. 24 in touches per game last season among running backs at 16.0. However, keep in mind that includes the Week 7 game at Tampa Bay where he had just one carry and no catches. If you remove that game, Robinson averaged 16.9 touches per game, which would be No. 15 among running backs. ... Robinson only had 28 more carries than No. 2 running back Tyler Allgeier last season, and the combination of Allgeier (186) and Cordarrelle Patterson (50) had more carries than Robinson. ... Robinson averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season, and only five players with more than 200 rushing attempts averaged more yards per carry in 2023.
- How he gets to No. 1: With Arthur Smith gone as the head coach and playcaller, the runway is open for Robinson to perform like the superstar many were hoping to see in his rookie campaign. New coach Raheem Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will use Bijan Robinson like a workhorse running back, and there's been talk of Robinson being deployed like McCaffrey. The offense should improve with Kirk Cousins as the new quarterback, and Robinson showed off his skills down the stretch last year when given more work after the bye. He's also an elite receiver, and he had eight games with at least four catches in 2023. If Allgeier is relegated to more of a traditional backup role then we could be looking at about 330 total touches for Robinson, and he could be among the league leaders in running back receptions. He's poised for a huge second-year leap in 2024.
Jahmyr Gibbs
- 2023 stats: 182 carries, 945 yards, 10 touchdowns and 52 catches, 316 yards, one touchdown on 71 targets
- Stats that get your attention: Only seven running backs saw more targets than Gibbs in 2023, and his receptions were tied for the ninth-most at the position. ... He had six games with at least 21.5 PPR points in his final 11 outings. ... David Montgomery missed three games in 2023, and Gibbs averaged 21.3 PPR points over that span, including two outings with at least 26 PPR points. In those three games, Gibbs averaged 18 carries and had at least 18 total touches in all three contests. ... The Lions have scored 24 and 23 rushing touchdowns from their running backs in the past two seasons, with three different players (Jamaal Williams with 17 in 2022, Montgomery with 13 last year and Gibbs) all scoring at least 10 times.
- How he gets to No. 1: It's hard to see Gibbs being the No. 1 running back if Montgomery stays healthy, but you saw the upside of what Gibbs could do when Montgomery was out in 2023. The usage was there as a workhorse running back, and Gibbs had two outings with elite production of 26 PPR points at Baltimore in Week 7 and 29 PPR points against Las Vegas in Week 8. The Lions have said Gibbs will get more work in 2024, but it's not like Montgomery will disappear, especially with his chances in the redzone. That said, Gibbs still scored six total touchdowns in his final five games (five rushing), and more work in the run game could push him to the top of the list. It's a huge plus that he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and the Lions only have three outdoor games this season (Week 9 at Green Bay, Week 16 at Chicago and Week 17 at San Francisco). Gibbs should produce standout production with Montgomery as his running mate, but Gibbs would be elite if Montgomery missed any extended action this year.
Saquon Barkley
- 2023 stats: 247 carries, 962 yards, six touchdowns and 41 catches, 280 yards, four touchdowns on 60 targets
- Stats that get your attention: Barkley was one of only nine running backs to average more than 15.0 PPR points per game last year (15.1). It's the second year in a row he was over 15.0 PPR points per game and the fourth time in his six-year career he's been over that threshold. He has two seasons on his resume with at least 17.9 PPR points per game in 2018 and 2019. ... Barkley was one of just four running backs to average more than 20 total touches per game at 20.6 in 2023. The other three were Williams (21.7), McCaffrey (21.2) and Josh Jacobs (20.8). Barkley had five games with at least 20 carries. ... The Giants won six games in 2023. In those six wins, Barkley averaged 20.5 PPR points per game, including four outings with at least 22 PPR points. The Eagles have won 25 games over the past two seasons.
- (bullet) How he gets to No. 1: Barkley is the only running back listed here to change teams this offseason, but the move from the Giants to the Eagles is a massive upgrade, which should help Barkley return to elite status. He may never play at the level of his rookie campaign again when he averaged 23.2 PPR points per game in 2018, and he's 27 now. But the offensive line upgrade should be huge for Barkley. For example, last year Barkley was hit in the backfield on 46 percent of his carries, the third-highest rate in the NFL. By comparison, D'Andre Swift, who was the Eagles starter, was hit behind the line on only 27 percent of his carries, the lowest rate in the league. Barkley should still catch 40-plus passes (Swift had 39 receptions last year in 16 games), and he should have the chance for 15 total touchdowns. Keep in mind that Miles Sanders scored 11 rushing touchdowns for Philadelphia in 2022, and the Eagles might not rely on the tush push as much this season with center Jason Kelce now retired. This should be a great year for Barkley with his new team.
Jonathan Taylor
- 2023 stats: 169 carries, 741 yards, seven touchdowns and 19 catches, 153 yards, one touchdown on 23 targets in 10 games
- Stats that get your attention: Taylor was the No. 1 Fantasy running back in 2021 at 21.2 PPR points per game. Since then, he's averaged 12.6 PPR points per game (2022) and 14.6 PPR points per game (2023) in the past two seasons. He's also played just 21 total games over the past two years. ... The Colts had a running back score a touchdown in 13 of 17 games in 2023. That doesn't include Week 1 when Taylor and Zack Moss both didn't play. Taylor has scored 44 total touchdowns in 53 career games. ... Taylor played just two snaps with Anthony Richardson in Week 5 against Tennessee before the Colts' quarterback sustained a season-ending shoulder injury. ... Taylor has only averaged 2.9 targets per game in his career. Last year, there were 29 running backs who averaged at least 3.0 targets per game.
- How he gets to No. 1: For Taylor to be the No. 1 running back again for the second time in his career he will have to gain at least 2,000 total yards and score 20 total touchdowns like he did in 2021. He also had 40 receptions on 51 targets that season, and his role in the passing game will be tough to trust this year while playing with Richardson. We also have to worry about Richardson stealing rushing touchdowns, and that could limit Taylor's upside. But we shouldn't see Taylor come off the field much, and Indianapolis should have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. Taylor might have the most difficult path to being the No. 1 running back this season given his potential lack of work in the passing game, but he could lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. And if he surprises us with his receptions then Taylor could be the best running back this year.
Kyren Williams
- 2023 stats: 228 carries, 1,144 yards, 12 touchdowns and 32 catches, 206 yards, three touchdowns on 48 targets in 12 games
- Stats that get your attention: Williams led all running backs in total touches per game at 21.7. He had at least nine games with at least 20 total touches in the 12 games he played, including seven outings with at least 20 carries. ... Williams was No. 3 in total running back touchdowns (15) behind McCaffrey (21) and Raheem Mostert (21). ... Of the 23 running backs last year with at least 200 carries, Williams (5.0) was one of just three to average at least 5.0 yards per carry, joining McCaffrey (5.4) and James Conner (5.0). ... Williams is the first Rams running back since Todd Gurley in 2018 to rush for more than 1,000 yards.
- How he gets to No. 1: Williams and McCaffrey were the only two running backs to average more than 20 PPR points per game last season, so Williams is right there already. However, many Fantasy managers fear that Williams could be a one-hit wonder. Another concern for Williams this season is the addition of rookie Blake Corum, who could steal touches from Williams, especially near the goal line. We still expect Williams to dominate touches, and hopefully he remains the unquestioned feature back for the Rams. He also has to stay healthy after missing four games last season with an ankle injury, and he has a history with foot injuries as well. But Williams plays in an explosive offense, and hopefully McVay will continue to lean on him like he did last season -- and Gurley once upon a time. If Corum is irrelevant then Williams could easily topple McCaffrey as the No. 1 running back this year.
