It's that time again, time to call some of the most talented football players in the world busts. What could go wrong?
This entire idea is an unfortunate necessity in the world of Fantasy Football. Because of the way we choose our players, it is very important for me to let you know the guys that I don't believe will live up to their ADP, or the guys who I'm not sure you can count on at all. And the nature of the beast is that these underperformers only matter if they are being drafted early in drafts, and the only players who get drafted early in drafts are the guys who are awesome at football. Alas, I have no other course of action. So let me just make it clear, I view nearly all of the guys below as incredible football players and I appreciate the work they do to entertain us and win football games. Unfortunately, you're going to have a bad time if you draft them at their current CBS Fantasy Football ADP. Here we go:
Saquon Barkley, ADP 11.4
Why he's a bust: Barkley actually has the ninth-highest ADP on the board, just ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs, two picks ahead of A.J. Brown, four picks ahead of Kyren Williams, and five picks ahead of Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua. I would rather draft all of those guys (as well as Marvin Harrison, Travis Etienne, and James Cook).
Barkley will battle Jalen Hurts for short yardage work and I expect Hurts to win that battle. Hurts also hampers Barkley's receiving upside because neither he or Kellen Moore has been all that friendly to pass-catching running backs. There's no upside at his ADP and there is a legitimate chance he's not a top 12 RB, much less a top 12 player. Barkley is not the same back who broke Fantasy Football as a rookie and his situation isn't as ideal as it looks at first.
Where I would draft him: RB9, late in Round 2.
Who I would draft instead: A.J. Brown or Jonathan Taylor.
Derrick Henry, ADP 22.6
Why he's a bust: He's a 30-year-old running back who doesn't catch passes on a team with a QB who takes 30% of the team's rush attempts and doesn't throw to running backs. Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns in this offense and still only averaged 11.5 Fantasy points per game. Henry averaged a career-low 4.5 yards per touch last year and I do not like betting on bouncebacks from veterans. Also, the Ravens offensive line will not be as good as it was last year.
Where I would draft him: Round 5 in full PPR.
Who I would draft instead: James Cook.
Sam LaPorta, ADP 26.9
Why he's a bust: First off, I wouldn't take any of the tight ends in the first 30 picks this season. That's partially because the position is deeper than normal, partially because there's not that much separation between LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Trey McBride in my projections. I'm pretty content to let someone else choose first, and that works out even better because LaPorta isn't my first, second, or third choice.
Touchdowns are the least sticky part of Fantasy production and touchdowns were the only place LaPorta stood out last year. I don't see a big target increase in targets with Amon-Ra-St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs there, and so if LaPorta's touchdowns do regress he may not even be TE4. His efficiency stats last year (10.3 YPC, 71.7% catch rate, 7.4 yards per target) were closer to mediocre than elite.
Where I would draft him: TE4, Round 4.
Who I would draft instead: Trey McBride.
Drake London, ADP 28.2
Why he's a bust: London is being drafted early in Round 3 as the number 13 wide receiver despite the fact that he's averaged 53.7 yards per game and scored just six touchdowns in his first 33 games. The reason? He has a new head coach (who is a defensive coach), and new offensive coordinator (who has never called plays), and a new quarterback (who tore his Achilles nine months ago). I'm not saying it can't work out, London does have great pedigree, but he's being drafted like it already has.
I would much rather draft George Pickens in Round 5, and truth be told I prefer Pickens straight up. At least Pickens has shown the ability to make big plays. London's 3.0 yards after catch per reception ranks 43rd out of 48 wide receivers with at least 150 targets over the past two seasons.
Where I would draft him: The four-five turn.
Who I would draft instead: Chris Olave.
Josh Allen, ADP 30.4
Why he's a bust: Every year I place the top QB in this article because he's being drafted too high. This year, you guys are doing better because the top QB is being drafted in Round 3 instead of Round 1. But I think it's the wrong QB. As good as Allen has been, I don't want to bet on him finishing QB1 when his top three wide receivers appear to be rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir. I would definitely bet on his 15 rushing touchdowns regressing from last year, his career-high before last year was nine. Joe Brady is going to call a more run-heavy game script, so I don't expect Allen to put up gaudy pass attempt numbers either.
Where I would draft him: QB4, after Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson.
Who I would draft instead: Patrick Mahomes.
D.J. Moore, ADP 38.1
Why he's a bust: Let's start with the fact that he's coming off a career year and just lost the quarterback and offensive coordinator that helped him get there. While most people expect Caleb Williams and Shane Waldron to be upgrades, rookie QBs are no guarantee and Waldron didn't exactly take DK Metcalf to new heights in Seattle. But I would overlook those minor risks and take Moore right about here if the Bears hadn't added both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Allen has been better than Moore per game every year of his career and is legitimately one of the great target earners of the past decade. Odunze is arguably one of the top three wide receiver prospects of the past three seasons. This is too much target competition in an uncertain offense with a rookie QB.
Moore's ADP seems like a bet on Allen missing half of the season or the Bears being a top-five pass offense. I am not inclined to make either of those bets.
Where I would draft him: Late Round 5.
Who I would draft instead: Michael Pittman.
Malik Nabers, ADP 52.9
Why he's a bust: In the Daniel Jones era no pass catcher has ever topped 800 yards receiving and only Golden Tate has averaged 60 yards per game. While it's true they haven't had a player of Malik Nabers' caliber, they did spend a lot of money on Kenny Golladay, who possessed a 17-game average of 73-1,224-8 the three years before everything went wrong in New York. And while Darren Waller was clearly at the end of his career, he was also noticeably better with Tyrod Taylor than he was with Jones.
In the past 10 years, we've seen 20 wide receivers drafted in the first half of the first round and it's been pretty close to a coin flip. Some become superstars, some bust. But that's for their careers, the odds are much worse in their rookie year, with about a 35% hit rate. I want to say that I do believe Nabers' prospect profile is definitely in the top 35% of that group, I also think his Year 1 situation may be in the bottom 20%.
This year we have three very good former top-12 picks who most people are projecting to break out: London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave. The reason we're still waiting is because their quarterback play has held them back. I am afraid that will be the case with Nabers as well.
Where I would draft him: The Seven-eight turn.
Who I would draft instead: Tee Higgins