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Wideouts bounced back in a big way last year. As a whole, receivers scored a record-high 532 touchdowns to boost their Fantasy numbers. Their running back counterparts didn't average as many Fantasy points per game in PPR based on top-12 (0.3 higher), top-24 (1.9 higher) or top-36 averages (1.8 higher). Can't remember the last time that happened.
But maybe the best news of all for Fantasy drafters is that wide receivers aren't quite as top-heavy as they were last year.
In addition to knowing your lineup requirements and scoring system, you must answer these questions:
- How risk-averse are you?
- How badly do you want to fill your starting lineup with no-brainers?
- How deep do you think this position is?
- Are you good at finding replacement receivers off waivers?
The first two questions go hand-in-hand: Wide receivers are generally safer than their running back counterparts, but they typically don't score as much in non-PPR, and only the top guys come close to matching up in PPR. The more of those "safe" picks you want for your starting group, the more receivers you should target early in your draft.
You can use my tiers to determine how deep you think the position is, but after stewing on this for six months (that's right, while you were living your life, I was studying these guys), I feel real good about the wideouts in the first four or five rounds being good starters. I'm also confident that the receivers in the fifth and sixth tiers make up a bunch of breakout and sleeper candidates who carry enough upside to warrant starting. You should find the entire class to your liking and may even decide to wait to draft your third or fourth receivers.
That last question? I'm not you, so I can't exactly answer that. But if you've played Fantasy Football for a while, you know that there are receivers with at least decent upside on waivers every week. No one who will cement himself into a starting spot, but someone who offers a chance at scoring a touchdown, going for 70 yards, etc. The better you (and we) are at finding them, the less urgency you'll need to draft deep.
Just know that nearly every Fantasy manager will select at least one very good receiver before the end of Round 3. That doesn't mean it's a mistake to lock up two of them if you want to differentiate your lineup, but that is a move that's best saved for PPR formats and smaller leagues (10 or fewer teams).
But the safest plan on Draft Day is to pick enough receivers from the top-five or six tiers to cover your starting spots, then another two or three for the bench. And always remember that receivers who tend to play the best in Fantasy are those who regularly get a piece of the target share from good quarterbacks. When you're drafting a receiver who doesn't already carry stud status, ask yourself if he has the potential for 120 targets (to yield 70-plus receptions) and/or eight touchdowns. Those are the stats we're shooting for from the non-obvious guys in Round 6 and beyond. The more of those players you get, the more likely you'll compete for a trophy in December.
What about punting on receivers and not taking any until after 50th overall? That's the kind of plan you're going to have to follow if you insist on drafting two stud running backs and a stud tight end with your first trio of picks. This is do-able in smaller non-PPR formats and it carries a chance at being successful, especially if you pull the lever on the right receivers starting in Round 5.
But the safest plan on Draft Day is to pick enough receivers from the top-five or six tiers to cover your starting spots, then another two or three for the bench. And always remember that receivers who tend to play the best in Fantasy are those who regularly get a piece of the target share from good quarterbacks. When you're drafting a receiver who doesn't already carry stud status, ask yourself if he has the potential for 120 targets (to yield 70-plus receptions) and/or eight touchdowns. Those are the stats we're shooting for from the non-obvious guys in Round 6 and beyond. The more of those players you get, the more likely you'll compete for a trophy in December.
D. Hopkins
TEN
|
J. Jones
PHI
|
D. Adams
LV
|
O. Beckham Jr.
MIA
|
J. Smith-Schuster
NE
|
T. Hill
MIA
|
M. Thomas
NO
|
M. Evans
TB
|
K. Allen
CHI
|
A. Cooper
CLE
|
S. Diggs
HOU
|
J. Edelman
NE
|
A. Brown
TB
|
B. Cooks
DAL
|
A. Thielen
CAR
|
T. Hilton
DAL
|
C. Godwin
TB
|
C. Kupp
LAR
|
K. Golladay
NYG
|
C. Ridley
TEN
|
R. Woods
HOU
|
T. Boyd
TEN
|
D. Moore
CHI
|
A. Green
ARI
|
A. Robinson
NYG
|
C. Kirk
JAC
|
A. Jeffery
PHI
|
T. Lockett
SEA
|
J. Gordon
TEN
|
D. Westbrook
GB
|
M. Williams
NYJ
|
C. Samuel
BUF
|
R. Chosen
MIA
|
C. Davis
NYJ
|
W. Fuller
MIA
|
S. Shepard
TB
|
D. Pettis
CHI
|
J. Landry
NO
|
D. Jackson
BAL
|
L. Fitzgerald
ARI
|
S. Watkins
BAL
|
C. Sutton
DEN
|
M. Jones
DET
|
D. Moncrief
HOU
|
T. Williams
DET
|
M. Valdes-Scantling
BUF
|
J. Crowder
WAS
|
A. Miller
KC
|
K. Coutee
MIA
|
G. Allison
ATL
|
J. Brown
BUF
|
G. Tate
TEN
|
D. Hamilton
MIA
|
E. Sanders
BUF
|
A. Wilson
LV
|
J. Washington
IND
|
N. Harry
MIN
|
M. Gallup
LV
|
R. Cobb
NYJ
|
K. Stills
NO
|
M. Boykin
NYG
|
D. Metcalf
SEA
|
D. Hopkins
TEN
|
J. Jones
PHI
|
D. Adams
LV
|
O. Beckham Jr.
MIA
|
T. Hill
MIA
|
J. Smith-Schuster
NE
|
M. Thomas
NO
|
M. Evans
TB
|
K. Allen
CHI
|
A. Cooper
CLE
|
S. Diggs
HOU
|
B. Cooks
DAL
|
A. Brown
TB
|
T. Hilton
DAL
|
J. Edelman
NE
|
A. Thielen
CAR
|
C. Kupp
LAR
|
C. Godwin
TB
|
C. Ridley
TEN
|
K. Golladay
NYG
|
R. Woods
HOU
|
T. Boyd
TEN
|
A. Green
ARI
|
D. Moore
CHI
|
A. Robinson
NYG
|
C. Kirk
JAC
|
A. Jeffery
PHI
|
T. Lockett
SEA
|
J. Gordon
TEN
|
M. Williams
NYJ
|
C. Samuel
BUF
|
R. Chosen
MIA
|
W. Fuller
MIA
|
D. Westbrook
GB
|
C. Davis
NYJ
|
S. Shepard
TB
|
D. Pettis
CHI
|
D. Jackson
BAL
|
J. Landry
NO
|
S. Watkins
BAL
|
M. Jones
DET
|
C. Sutton
DEN
|
D. Moncrief
HOU
|
T. Williams
DET
|
M. Valdes-Scantling
BUF
|
L. Fitzgerald
ARI
|
A. Miller
KC
|
J. Brown
BUF
|
K. Coutee
MIA
|
G. Allison
ATL
|
E. Sanders
BUF
|
J. Washington
IND
|
G. Tate
TEN
|
M. Gallup
LV
|
K. Stills
NO
|
N. Harry
MIN
|
J. Crowder
WAS
|
M. Boykin
NYG
|
D. Hamilton
MIA
|
D. Metcalf
SEA
|
M. Brown
KC
|
So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.