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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +539
    (73%)
    11-4-1 in Last 16 NHL Picks
    DET -1
    -143
    Spread
    Picked: Jan 16 @ 7:23am

    Analysis

    I am a romantic at heart but somehow had never seen the Notebook. Did last night and oh man I'm still crying. Terribly sad but also wonderful. The little things nowadays please me. Like the Red Wings not being offered at -1 yesterday but now are (not the best segue). The reason being this ML was around -250 at open but has dropped a fair amount. Not really sure why. San Jose is in the second of a B2B but has been playing well, so this certainly might push (or lose, I suppose). But netminder Yaroslov Askarov -- I'm assuming it will be him since he didn't go Thursday -- has been awful of late after a great start to the year.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +85.5
    (60%)
    9-6 in Last 15 NBA Picks
    PHI
    -126
    Money Line
    Picked: Jan 16 @ 7:32am

    Analysis

    Probably wise to wait for lineups, but it's just so tough to win back-to-back games in one of these baseball-type series (if all generally equal) that the NBA has been using since the COVID season to cut down on travel. Cleveland smashed the Sixers on Wednesday in Philly, and I expect a major response tonight from the home side. We do know that Darius Garland and Sam Merrill already are out for the visitors. I refuse to mention the injury status of a certain 7-footer from Cameroon for Philadelphia.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +1105
    (60%)
    47-31 in Last 78 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Allen
    Under 24.5
    -113
    PTS + AST + REB
    Picked: Jan 16 @ 11:07am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Jarrett Allen is averaging 23.6 combined points plus rebounds plus assists this season. He’s remained under this line in eight of ten games he’s played with both Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, but without Darius Garland (out tonight). Tonight he’ll go toe-to-toe with Joel Embiid, who has rounded into form on both ends for the Sixers. The matchup best suits Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs’ perimeter scorers. I’d bet this down to under 23.5 PRA, or under 22.5 points plus rebounds as well.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +1105
    (60%)
    47-31 in Last 78 NBA Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Smith
    Over 14.5
    -114
    PTS + REB
    Picked: Jan 16 @ 12:09pm

    Analysis

    FanDuel. This line is too low for Jalen Smith. Running as the backup center, Smith has cleared this line in 12/18 games when playing between 12-22 minutes, without fellow reserve center Zach Collins available. He should find success tonight against a Nets defense that ranks in the bottom eight against spot up, transition and pick and roll men scoring - Smith’s main scoring types.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Barner
    NBA Guru
    player headshot
    J. Smith
    Over 14.5
    -118
    PTS + REB
    Picked: Jan 16 @ 12:21pm

    Analysis

    Jalen Smith has averaged 23 minutes over his last nine games. During that span, he averaged 10.8 points and 9.0 rebounds. He finished with at least 15 combined points and rebounds in all but one of those games. In that game, he had nine points and five rebounds before leaving in the third quarter with an injury. Smith is a dangerous three-point shooter, which is important to note because the Nets allow the seventh-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. Look for Smith to continue his increased production.

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