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  • expert headshot
    Will Brinson
    +120
    (50%)
    3-3 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Allen
    YES
    -110
    Anytime TD Scorer
    Picked: Jan 13 @ 9:52am

    Analysis

    I'm not entirely sure what we're doing with this number, because everyone else just saw Allen score two rushing touchdowns against the Jaguars (the best rush defense in football) despite battling 50 different injuries he picked up during the game. The Bills only path to winning the Super Bowl is with Josh Allen turning into Superman the rest of the way. He already did it against the Jags and dragged the Bills into the Divisional Round. I would fully expect we see more of it against the Broncos and he absolutely will not hesitate to put his body on the line and plunge across the goal line. Basically even money early in the week is an autobet on Allen to score.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #3
    +1475
    (60%)
    61-40 in Last 101 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    K. Shakir
    Over 4.5
    -130
    Receptions
    Picked: Jan 13 @ 11:32am

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Khalil Shakir cleared this line in 9/16 games in the regular season, and is very clearly Josh Allen’s most trusted target in high-pressure situations. Allen, who is banged up, will likely be thrust into passing situations (Broncos run defense ranks 2nd in DVOA), and Shakir should be in position to capitalize. Running most his routes out of the slot, he’ll avoid Patrick Surtain on the outside. The Broncos allow the fifth-highest target rate to slot pass catchers (36%, per Fantasy Points). Denver allowed the third most catches to pass catchers in the slot and out wide for nine air yards or less (11.2 per game). Shakir’s aDOT is 3.6 yards, with 82% of his targets coming in at less than 10 air yards.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +489
    (86%)
    6-1 in Last 7 NFL Picks
    DEN +1.5
    -120
    Spread
    Picked: Jan 13 @ 11:34am

    Analysis

    Second game in six days for the Bills and second in 23 days for the Broncos. Buffalo got pretty battered in that Jacksonville loss with safety Jordan Poyer and WR Gabe Davis already ruled out for this one. Denver is only the second No. 1 seed ever to be an underdog in the Divisional Round. The first one was victorious (Eagles). Buffalo's No. 1 rush offense was largely held in check by the Jaguars. The Broncos ranked No. 2 vs. the run.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    +220
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
    DEN
    -108
    Money Line
    Picked: Jan 13 @ 3:15pm

    Analysis

    This is the one game over the weekend where I truly don’t have a strong lean. But Buffalo is SO banged up and now is facing one of the league’s best defenses on the road. The Bills whacked the Broncos last season but Denver is improved in 2025-26 and Buffalo is worse. While I think this one will be extremely close, I lean the home team in another NFL playoff thriller. Broncos 24, Bills 21.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +636
    (58%)
    31-22 in Last 53 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Nix
    Under 33.5
    -111
    Longest Completion
    Picked: Jan 13 @ 4:06pm

    Analysis

    All eyes are on the matchup between Josh Allen and a stingy Broncos defense, but I'd rather look at the other QB in this prop. The Bills have allowed seven completions of 34+ all year and just two in the last two months, including a 34-yarder to Parker Washington last week. The Broncos have had a decent amount of passes over 34 yards but they've also run a lot of side-to-side plays rather than attack downfield. The Bills' time of possession edge throughout the year has resulted in the fewest passes against them, and they're fifth in net yards per pass attempt. With the defense stepping up last week, I'll trust them to cash this play.

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