The end of the 2023 NFL regular season has arrived. With seventeen weeks of action in the books, all that remains is the Week 18 slate where there are still several intriguing matchups that can shake up the playoff picture before it's officially locked in next Sunday. Of course, the last week of the season can also be tricky to pinpoint from a betting standpoint as team motivations play a central role. Are clubs resting starters? Do they have anything to play for? Can a playoff spot be clinched? These questions (and more) will be reflected in the lines for this upcoming weekend.
As we turn our attention to this upcoming slate, let's get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about whom the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.
Week 18 early odds
(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Steelers at Ravens (Saturday) | Steelers -4 | 38 | Steelers -192, Ravens +159 |
Texans at Colts (Saturday) | Colts -1 | 47 | Texans -102, Colts -118 |
Vikings at Lions | Lions -4 | 44.5 | Vikings +173, Lions -210 |
Browns at Bengals | Bengals -5 | 39.5 | Browns +178, Bengals -217 |
Buccaneers at Panthers | Buccaneers -5.5 | 37.5 | Buccaneers -253, Panthers +207 |
Falcons at Saints | Saints -3.5 | 41.5 | Falcons +155, Saints -186 |
| Jaguars at Titans | Jaguars -3.5 | 40 | Jaguars -189, Titans +157 |
Jets at Patriots | Patriots -2.5 | 31.5 | Jets +114, Patriots -135 |
Bears at Packers | Packers -3 | 44 | Baers +141, Packers -168 |
Cowboys at Commanders | Cowboys -13.5 | 45.5 | Cowboys -872, Commanders +583 |
| Broncos at Raiders | Raiders -2.5 | 38 | Broncos +121, Raiders -143 |
| Rams at 49ers | 49ers -4.5 | 42.5 | Rams +179, 49ers -219 |
| Eagles at Giants | Eagles -5.5 | 42 | Eagles -252, Giants +205 |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Seahawks -3 | 47.5 | Seahawks -162, Cardinals +137 |
| Chiefs at Chargers | Chargers -1.5 | 35.5 | Chiefs +100, Chargers -120 |
| Bills at Dolphins | Bills -3 | 50 | Bills -160, Dolphins +134 |
Notable movement, trends
Steelers at Ravens (Saturday)
The Steelers opened as 3.5-point favorites, and that has since jumped to to Steelers -4. With Baltimore already clinched as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, there's no true motivation to play key starters for this game, which is why Pittsburgh is pegged as a road favorite. On top of that, Mike Tomlin's team is still vying for one of the final wild-card seeds in the AFC, so they will be giving their full effort to reach the postseason. The Steelers are 4-3 ATS on the road this season, which includes a 1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.
Texans at Colts (Saturday)
Both the Colts and Texans are alive in the wild-card race, and the AFC South is still in play as well. A win by either one of these teams Saturday, coupled with a Jaguars loss against Tennessee on Sunday, would win them the division. With that in mind, there is plenty on the line for these teams to full tilt. Indy is a slim 1-point favorite over the Texans after opening as a 1.5-point favorite. The Colts are 4-4 ATS at home this season, while the Texans are 4-3 ATS on the road.
Vikings at Lions
Detroit sits as a 4-point favorite over Minnesota in a game that does have significance for both sides. For the Lions, they could bump up to the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win and losses by both the Cowboys and Eagles. As for the Vikings, they have an outside chance of still clinching a wild-card spot and would need a win to even think about crashing the party. The Lions are 11-5 ATS on the season, which includes a 4-3 ATS mark at Ford Field. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 5-0-3 ATS on the road this year.
Browns at Bengals
The Bengals opened as 3.5-point favorites, and that number has since jumped to Bengals -5. Cleveland is locked in as the No. 5 seed in the AFC, so there's a chance Kevin Stefanski holds back some of his key starters for this game. Cincinnati is eliminated from playoff contention, but could be looking to end the year on a high note and move above .500. It's also still looking for its first straight-up win within the division this season. The Bengals are 3-3-2 ATS at home this season while the Browns are 2-4-1 ATS on the road.
Buccaneers at Panthers
The Bucs opened as 6-point favorites, but the line has since dropped to Buccaneers -5.5. Tampa Bay is still looking to lock up the NFC South, so they have plenty of motivation entering this divisional matchup with the Panthers. Baker Mayfield's team has been a fantastic bet on the road this season at 7-1 ATS. This is the first time this year that the Bucs have been a road favorite, however. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 3-3-1 ATS as a home dog.
Falcons at Saints
Both of these teams still remain in the hunt for the NFC South title. Whoever wins this game would only need the Bucs to fall in Week 18 (albeit to the Panthers) to claim the division. The oddsmakers currently have the Saints as a 3.5-point favorite, but the Superdome hasn't been the friendliest place for them. New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS at home this year. That said, Atlanta is equally as bad on the road at 2-5 ATS.
Jaguars at Titans
Jacksonville needs a win to secure the AFC South title or face the possibility of either the Colts or Texans leapfrogging them in the standings. With that in mind, they sit as 3.5-point road favorites over the Titans. Tennessee has been one of the better home teams to bet on this season, as it holds a 4-2-1 ATS record at Nissan Stadium. As for the Jaguars, they are 4-2 ATS on the road, which includes a 3-1 ATS record as a road favorite.
Jets at Patriots
Both of these teams are eliminated from playoff contention, so they'll be playing for pride. In what could be Bill Belichick's final game coaching New England, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites, which is up from the 1.5-point spread at the opening. New England is just 1-5-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium this season, while the Jets are 1-5-1 ATS on the road, so something will need to give here.
Bears at Packers
Green Bay is currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC, but its playoff position is not yet locked in, so it has motivation to play its starters. The Packers are a field goal favorite over a Bears team that is 4-4 ATS on the road this year. At Lambeau Field, the Packers are 4-3 ATS.
Cowboys at Commanders
Dallas has clinched a playoff berth, but could still lock up the NFC East with a win against Washington on Sunday. With that motivation to play apparent, the oddsmakers have made the Cowboys 13.5-point favorites, which is the largest spread throughout the Week 18 slate. The Commanders have not covered this season at FedExField, owning a 0-6-1 ATS record at home. Meanwhile, Dallas is 3-5 ATS on the road this year.
Broncos at Raiders
The Raiders are 2.5-point favorites over Denver, but neither one of these teams is playing for a postseason berth. Denver hasn't been a good team to back when it heads out on the road, as it is just 2-4-1 ATS away from Mile High. On the flip side, the Raiders are 5-2-1 ATS at home this season; their 71.4% cover rate is the third-best in the league.
Rams at 49ers
With the No. 1 seed locked up, it will be interesting to see if Kyle Shanahan opts to keep key starters out of this game as this division matchup with the Rams means nothing to them. As for the Rams, they have clinched a playoff berth but can go no higher than the No. 6 seed in the NFC. San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite after the line opened at Niners -3. They are 3-4 ATS at home this season, while the Rams are 4-3-1 ATS on the road.
Eagles at Giants
Fresh off of a straight-up loss to the Cardinals, Philadelphia is a 5.5-point road favorite over the Giants. That's down from the 6.5-point spread it was at the opening. The Eagles have a playoff spot clinched but still need a win to keep any hope alive of winning the NFC East. Philly is 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season and 3-2-1 ATS as a road favorite. As a home underdog, the Giants are 4-2-1 ATS.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle is still looking to steal the final wild-card spot and will need a win in Arizona to keep that hope alive. They are a field goal favorite over the Cardinals, and the Seahawks have been one of the better teams to back on the road this year. Overall, they are 5-2-1 ATS on the road this season, which includes a 1-0-1 ATS mark as road favorites. Arizona is 4-3 ATS at home.
Chiefs at Chargers
Kansas City has won the AFC West and is locked in as the No. 3 seed, so it may not play key starters for this game. That's why it shouldn't come as much of a shock to see the Chargers as 1.5-point favorites in this head-to-head. L.A. is just 3-5 ATS at home this season, while the Chiefs are 3-3-1 ATS on the road.
Bills at Dolphins
The winner of this game claims the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the conference, so the stakes couldn't be higher. Buffalo is a full field-goal favorite in this game after it opened as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Dolphins have been banged up with injuries over the last few weeks, so that could be part of the reasoning for the oddsmakers to have them as a dog at Hard Rock Stadium. The Bills haven't been a strong road team this season at 2-5 ATS, while the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS at home, but the way Buffalo is playing at the moment has it as the favorite to come out of this matchup on top.
