Just two weeks remain in the 2023 NFL regular season and there's still plenty to be determined. Only the 49ers and Lions have clinched a division title, meaning the division races in the entire AFC are still up for grabs. That said, a lot could be determined as we begin looking toward Week 17 where the playoff picture is expected to crystalize with several high-profile matchups, including the Dolphins visiting the Ravens.
As we turn our attention to this upcoming slate, let's get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.
Week 17 early odds
(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Browns -7 | 36.5 | Jets +260, Browns -330 | |
Lions at Cowboys (Saturday) | Cowboys -6 | 53.5 | Lions +217, Cowboys -267 |
Eagles -9.5 | 47.5 | Cardinals +435, Eagles -598 | |
Bears -3 | 38 | Falcons +131, Bears -156 | |
Rams -6.5 | 42 | Rams -289, Giants +234 | |
Colts -3 | 44.5 | Raiders +135, Colts -162 | |
| Dolphins at Ravens | Ravens -3 | 47 | Dolphins +133, Ravens -156 |
Bills -12 | 41 | Patriots +491, Bills -696 | |
49ers at Commanders | 49ers -13.5 | 48.5 | 49ers -871, Commanders +585 |
Texans -3.5 | 42.5 | Titans +156, Texans -188 | |
| Panthers at Jaguars | Jaguars -6.5 | 37.5 | Panthers +228, Jaguars -283 |
| Saints at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -3 | 42 | Saints +134, Buccaneers -161 |
| Steelers at Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5 | 41 | Steelers +149, Seahawks -180 |
| Bengals at Chiefs | Chiefs -7.5 | 45 | Bengals +288, Chiefs -364 |
| Chargers at Broncos | Broncos -5.5 | 38.5 | Chargers +204, Broncos -252 |
| Packers at Vikings | Vikings -2 | 45.5 | Packers +109, Vikings -130 |
Notable movement, trends
Jets at Browns (Thursday)
Both of these teams are coming off wins in Week 16, but the Browns are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Jets have already been eliminated. Cleveland is currently 10-5 on the year and the No. 5 seed in the AFC, so a win at home on Thursday would punch its ticket to the postseason. They opened as a six-point favorite, but that number has now moved to a key number as it sits at Browns -7. Cleveland is an NFL-best 7-1 ATS at home this season, while the Jets are 1-4-1 ATS on the road.
Lions at Cowboys (Saturday)
The highest total of the Week 17 slate comes in Saturday's head-to-head between the Lions and Cowboys. After opening at 51.5, this total has jumped up to 53.5. The Over is 10-5 in Lions games this year (tied for a league best), and is 8-7 in Cowboys games. However, the Over is 5-2 when the Cowboys are playing at AT&T Stadium and the Lions are still able to put up points on the road where the Over is 5-3 in their games. Dallas also moved to be a 6-point favorite after the spread opened at Cowboys -5. They are 6-1 ATS at home this year, while the Lions are 6-2 ATS on the road.
Cardinals at Eagles
Philadelphia snapped its losing skid, but continues to struggle to put teams away like they were able to do in 2022. Still, that hasn't prevented them from sitting as a 9.5-point favorite as they host the Cardinals on Sunday. The Eagles are 3-3-1 ATS at home this season, while Arizona is 3-5 ATS on the road. The total for this game is set at 47.5 (unchanged from the opening number). In Eagles home games, the Over is 6-1. However, the Cardinals have struggled to keep up the scoring pace as the Over is just 2-6 in their road games this season (7-0 at home).
Falcons at Bears
Both of these teams are coming off wins in Week 16 and each of them is technically still alive in the NFC playoff race. That said, the Falcons have a more realistic path as they are a game out of the No. 7 seed in the conference and a game behind the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. This spread opened at Bears -3 and has held coming into the week. Chicago is covering 60% of its home games this season, while the Falcons are 2-4 ATS on the road.
Rams at Giants
The Los Angeles Rams are in the thick of the wild-card race in the NFC as they enter Week 17 as the No. 6 seed in the conference. They are also a 6.5-point road favorite as they travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Giants. What will be interesting to watch with New York is how head coach Brian Daboll handles the quarterback situation after Tommy DeVito was benched for Tyrod Taylor. Once Daboll makes an official word for this game, it will be curious to see how the lines shift (if at all). The Rams are 2-0 ATS as a road favorite this season, while the Giants are 3-2-1 ATS as a home dog.
Raiders at Colts
Indy is clinging to the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture, while the Raiders are making a late-season push. They are the No. 11 seed, but are just a game behind the Colts in the loss column and would earn the head-to-head tiebreaker if they were to upset them at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is a field-goal favorite in this matchup and is 4-3 ATS at home this season. Las Vegas is 3-4 ATS on the road this year but did just show us last week that it can go into a hostile road environment as an underdog and pull out the straight-up win. The total for this game sits at 44.5. The Over is 6-1 in Colts home games this season and is 2-5 in Raiders road games.
Dolphins at Ravens
Arguably the marquee matchup of the entire Week 17 slate is this matchup between the Dolphins and Ravens. They are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the conference and fighting for home-field advantage in this matchup. The winner would gain the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if the Ravens pull out the win they would clinch the top spot in the conference right then and there. Fresh off its dominant win on the road against the 49ers, Baltimore is a three-point favorite as it hosts Miami. Both of these teams are tied for a league-best 10-5 ATS on the season. The Ravens are 4-3 ATS at home, while the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS on the road.
Patriots at Bills
The Patriots were able to notch a last-second win over the Broncos on Christmas Eve to give them a rare win on the season. That victory may have shifted the lines in this upcoming matchup with Buffalo, which opened as a 12.5-point favorite. Now, the Bills are laying 12. New England is 3-4 ATS on the road, while the Bills are 4-3 ATS at home. Buffalo is the No. 6 seed in the AFC at the moment and will need a win to keep its hopes of leaping into first place in the AFC East alive for another week.
49ers at Commanders
The loss to Baltimore doesn't seem to have any bearing on the 49ers' upcoming road game with the Commanders. They are still a massive 13.5-point road favorite. This year, San Fran is 5-3 ATS on the road, while the Commanders have not defended FedEx Field well at all. They are a league-worst 0-5-1 ATS at home this season and have an average margin of victory of -16.5. Could be a strong rebound spot for Brock Purdy and Co.
Titans at Texans
The status of quarterback C.J. Stroud is worth monitoring here. The Texans being 3.5-point favorites to open the week is an early indication that the rookie phenom is in line to return, but seeing how he navigates concussion protocol will be key. The Texans are 3-5 ATS at home this season, but the Titans haven't been a strong team to be on outside of Nashville as they are 2-5 ATS on the road.
Panthers at Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence left last week's game with a shoulder injury and the Jaguars quarterback has been banged up in recent weeks, so his health should give bettors some pause by backing Jacksonville. That said, they are hosting a Panthers team that is 4-9-2 ATS this season. Bryce Young is coming off one of his best games as a pro in the loss to Green Bay last week, but the Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this head-to-head after opening as a six-point favorite. Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS at home this season.
Saints at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a division title in their sights as they head into Week 17 in first place in the NFC South, and a win against a division foe would go a long way in locking up a playoff spot. Tampa Bay is a field-goal favorite over New Orleans, but Baker Mayfield's team has been so-so at Raymond James Stadium this year as it owns a 3-4 ATS record. That might not matter too much, however, as the Saints are one of the worst teams to bet on when they go on the road this season. They are 2-5-1 away from the Superdome. That 28.6% cover rate is tied for the third worst in the league.
Steelers at Seahawks
Seattle opened as a three-point favorite in this home matchup with the Steelers and that advantage has now pushed to Seahawks -3.5. Pete Carroll's team is 3-3-1 ATS at home in 2023 and will host a Pittsburgh team that is 3-3 in its road games, so they are pretty even from a trend standpoint. The total sits at 41 and the Under is 5-1 in Steeler road games this year.
Bengals at Chiefs
Even with the Chiefs starting to freefall a bit, they are still a 7.5-point favorite at home against the Bengals on Sunday. K.C. was handed a Christmas Day defeat at the hands of the Raiders, which dropped them to 9-6 on the season. While they still have a grip on first place in the AFC West, they are clinging to the No. 3 seed. As for the Bengals, they are still hoping to jump back into the playoff picture as they are tied with the No. 7 seed with the Colts at 8-7 but lose out due to various tiebreakers. The Chiefs are 3-4 ATS at Arrowhead this season, while the Bengals are 3-4 ATS on the road.
Chargers at Broncos
The Chargers are already eliminated from playoff contention and the Broncos are on the brink of having their postseason hopes dashed, especially after losing to New England last week. Denver opened as a six-point favorite over L.A., but that has since dipped to 5.5. The Broncos are 3-5 ATS at home this season, while the Chargers are 3-4 ATS on the road.
Packers at Vikings
Both of these NFC North rivals need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes as a wild-card entry alive, but they are each currently on the outside looking in of the postseason picture. Minnesota is a slim 2-point favorite in this head-to-head, but the Vikings have struggled at home this season where they are just 2-5 ATS. Green Bay isn't much better as a road team as they are 3-5 ATS coming into Week 17. The total did jump up a point to 45.5 after opening at 44.5. The Under is 5-2 in Vikings home games this season, but the Over is 6-2 when the Packers are on the road.
