The Miami Dolphins look to extend their 2.5-game lead in the AFC East as they travel north to face the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon. Miami (8-3) enters off a 34-13 win last Friday against the Jets, while Washington (4-8) was blown out by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, 45-10. Washington won the last regular season meeting between these two teams, 17-16, in 2019. The Dolphins are 7-4 against the spread, while the Commanders are 5-6-1 ATS in 2023.

Kickoff from FedEx Field in Landover, Md. is set for 1 p.m. ET. Miami is a 9-point road favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Commanders odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under is 49.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Dolphins picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the computer simulation model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Dolphins vs. Commanders and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 13 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Commanders vs. Dolphins:

  • Commanders vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -9
  • Commanders vs. Dolphins over/under: 49.5 points
  • Commanders vs. Dolphins money line: Dolphins -448, Commanders +346
  • Commanders vs. Dolphins picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Commanders vs. Dolphins live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been elite in 2023, throwing for 3,177 yards and 22 touchdown passes, both among the top-five of passers in the NFL. He's a prime MVP candidate for a team on its way to a division title and has led Miami to a top-two offense in the league alongside the Cowboys. With Washington giving up the third most passing yards per game (264.6), there should be no slowing Tagovailoa and the Miami offense on Sunday.

Currently the leader for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been virtually unstoppable this season. With 88 receptions for 1,324 yards and 10 touchdowns, Hill leads the league in receiving by displaying incredible speed and route running. In last week's big win over the Jets, Hill caught nine passes for 102 yards and a score. Washington is facing an uphill battle in trying to slow him down in Week 13. See which team to pick here.

Why the Commanders can cover

Though Washington's record may not reflect it, their offense has been successful this season led by second year quarterback Sam Howell. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,339, while throwing for 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. Despite his success through the air, Howell has taken an astounding 55 sacks, which has forced the Commanders into negative field position all too often.

Veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin leads the team with 60 receptions for 694 yards despite scoring only two touchdowns. Running back Brian Robinson has rushed for 611 yards and five scores while catching 29 passes for 326 yards and three touchdowns. In a game which likely will produce some points, Washington's offense will have to be efficient to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins attack. See which team to pick here.

How to make Dolphins vs. Commanders picks

The model has simulated Miami vs. Washington 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's Commanders vs. Dolphins pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Dolphins vs. Commanders on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits above 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Washington vs. Miami spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.