Over the last several weeks, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has not been as involved in the offense as we have grown accustomed to seeing him over the years. Since Diggs arrived in Buffalo, he has put together full-season receiving lines of 127 catches for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns, 103 catches for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns, 108 catches for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns, and so far this season, 100 catches for 1,096 yards and eight touchdowns.

But Diggs hasn't topped 86 yards in a game since Week 6, has only reached double-digit targets in two of the Bills' last eight games, and in recent weeks has seen his playing time fall off dramatically. He had played fewer than 80% of the team's snaps just twice in the first 12 weeks of the year, and he hasn't hit that mark a single time since. He even played south of 50% of the snaps for the second time ever during the blowout win over the Cowboys in Week 15. (The first time was during a 56-26 Week 17 win over the Dolphins in 2020.)

Even his route participation has gone down in recent weeks, but what's interesting is that Diggs has actually been targeted more often both as a percentage of routes run and in terms of team target share over these past four weeks than he was earlier in the year, or than he has been any time since arriving in Buffalo, according to TruMedia.

GamesSnap %Route %Team Tgt %Tgt/RouteDiggs ON Pass %Diggs OFF Pass %
Week 1-1287%93%29.5%26.9%66.5%32.0%
Week 14-1763%80%31.6%31.0%61.3%26.3%

He's just been on the field less often, and the Bills have passed the ball less often both when he's been in the game and especially when he's been on the sideline. The Bills have thrown the ball on only 26.3% of their non-Diggs snaps over the past four games. The team's lower pass rate with him on the field has been part of a dramatic shift toward the run overall, and the Bills have basically decided not to put him out there just to run-block often than ever before.

What's also interesting about this, though, is that Diggs' increased target share and targets per route run rate have led to less efficient production. His yards per route run average during this stretch is the lowest it's ever been in Buffalo, despite running deeper routes and Allen targeting his throws deeper down the field during this stretch than he had previously. The dynamic duo has simply not been able to connect as often when Diggs has been targeted. 

GamesRteRecTgtRec %YdsYds/RecYds/RteRte Depth
Week 1-124508312168.6%96911.72.156.81
Week 14-17100173154.8%1277.51.277.02

Some of that inefficiency stems from the four-catch, 24-yard game he had on 11 targets against the Chiefs. But he's also gone 4-48-0 on five targets against Dallas, 5-29-0 on eight targets against the Chargers, and 4-26-0 on seven targets against New England. 

While the Bills are 4-0 during this stretch, they have scored 30-plus points just once, and their passing game has been disjointed. They have an opportunity to get things back on track on Sunday night against a Dolphins team that will be missing both of its star edge rushers (Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb), as well as star corner Xavien Howard. If the Bills can win that game, they will win the AFC East and get to host playoff games. But if they can't get things with Diggs back on track and they lose to a short-handed Dolphins squad that already has its postseason spot wrapped up, then there's a good chance that the Bills are going home. And if they do, the inability to get their best offensive threat going down the stretch will likely have played a role.