Nearly two-thirds of NFL survivor pool players have already been eliminated after nearly 40% of participants last week chose either the Cowboys or Jaguars. Dallas lost to Arizona as an 11-point favorite, while Jacksonville lost to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite. How can you avoid falling victim to the next upset in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks? The Week 4 NFL schedule features 10 games in which the spread is 3.5 points or fewer. As dominant as San Francisco has looked, should you back the 49ers as 14-point home favorites against a Cardinals squad that just upset many NFL knockout pool picks by dominating the Cowboys last week? Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

For Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Browns, even though they are home favorites over the Ravens. The AFC North has been one of the best divisions in football this season and in the three matchups that have taken place in that division so far this season, the underdog has won outright every time.

That includes the Ravens beating the Bengals on the road as three-point underdogs in Week 2. Baltimore followed a familiar formula in that game, rushing for 178 yards while holding Cincinnati to 66 yards on the ground. The Ravens will try to control the line of scrimmage similarly against Cleveland in Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Browns have been dominant on defense, but Deshaun Watson hasn't played particularly well complimentary football. He's thrown a pair of interceptions and fumbled a league-high four times, as Cleveland has turned the ball over seven times in three games. This has become the most unpredictable division in football and, for that reason, it's best to avoid AFC North matchups in NFL survivor pools for the time being, according to the model. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a team that has positive momentum and now faces a reeling opponent. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.