The Chicago Bears will try to end several runs of futility when they visit the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Chicago (0-4) is in the midst of a franchise-record 14-game losing streak and has won just one of its last nine meetings with Washington (2-2). The lone victory did come on the road, however, as the Bears posted a 31-15 triumph in the nation's capital in 2019. 

Kickoff from FedExField in Landover, Md. is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Washington is a six-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Commanders odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5. Before making any Commanders vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Commanders: 

  • Bears vs. Commanders spread: Washington -6
  • Bears vs. Commanders over/under: 44.5 points 
  • Bears vs. Commanders money line: Washington -270, Chicago +220
  • WAS: Commanders are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Chicago
  • CHI: Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games
  • Bears vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Commanders can cover

Washington needs to do a better job protecting quarterback Sam Howell, who has been sacked a league-high 24 times thus far this season. The offensive line's task should be a bit easier on Thursday since it faces a Chicago defense that is last in the NFL with two sacks through four games. In the two contests in which he was sacked fewer than six times, Howell threw for 290 and 299 yards with a total of three touchdown passes and no interceptions.

The Commanders have shown they have the ability to get to the quarterback as well. They are tied for seventh in the league with 13 sacks, with Montez Sweat leading the charge with three. The 27-year-old has recorded 15 pressures, making Washington the only team in the NFL to have three players with at least that many, as fellow defensive end Chase Young (2.5 sacks) and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (2.0) have 16 apiece. See which team to pick here.

Why the Bears can cover

Chicago is hoping Khalil Herbert can help keep its offense going in a positive direction. The 25-year-old running back posted the third 100-yard performance of his career in last week's 31-28 loss to Denver, gaining 103 of the team's 171 yards on the ground. Herbert came up with a solid effort against the Commanders last season as he carried seven times for 74 yards.

A sixth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Herbert hauled in one of Justin Fields' four touchdown passes last Sunday. Cole Kmet had a pair of scoring receptions in the second quarter for his third multi-TD effort since the start of the 2022 season, tying him for second-most among all NFL tight ends. The 24-year-old has a total of nine touchdown catches in that span to rank third in the league at his position in the category. See which team to pick here.

How to make Commanders vs. Bears picks on TNF

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the point total, calling for 49 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Commanders vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread cashes almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Bears spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 168-118 roll on NFL picks, and find out.