Highly entertaining teams meet in a 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament matchup on Monday evening. The Indiana Pacers host the Boston Celtics in a quarterfinal game, with a trip to Las Vegas on the line. The winner will face either the Milwaukee Bucks or the New York Knicks in a semifinal tilt later this week. Indiana is 6-5 at home and 10-8 overall this season, while Boston brings the NBA's best record (15-4) into this matchup. Kristaps Porzingis (calf) is out for Boston, while Tyrese Haliburton (illness) and Obi Toppin (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Pacers.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Celtics as 5.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 246 in the latest Celtics vs. Pacers odds. Before you make any Pacers vs. Celtics picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 7 of the 2023-24 NBA season on an 92-50 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Celtics vs. Pacers spread: Celtics -5.5
- Celtics vs. Pacers over/under: 246 points
- Celtics vs. Pacers money line: Celtics -217, Pacers +179
- BOS: The Celtics are 2-6-2 against the spread in road games
- IND: The Pacers are 6-5 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
While the Pacers have the league's best offense, the Celtics are also fantastic on that end of the floor. Boston is led by Jayson Tatum, who has scored at least 20 points in seven straight games. He is averaging 27.4 points on a career-best 62.3% true shooting this season, and Tatum adds 8.7 rebounds per contest. Boston is near the top of the league with 1.17 points per possession, and the Celtics are prolific from 3-point range. The Celtics are making 15.6 triples per game, and Boston is in the top three of the league with 57.5% shooting inside the arc. Additionally, this is also an advantageous matchup for Boston against a porous Indiana defense.
The Pacers have the second-worst defensive rating (120.8) in the NBA, and Indiana is dead-last in opponent shooting. That includes 50.4% shooting from the field and 40.0% from 3-point range for Indiana's opponents, and the Pacers are also allowing the most free throw attempts (28.5 per game) in the NBA. Indiana also scuffles on the defensive glass, producing bottom-five marks in defensive rebound rate (68.1%) and second-chance points allowed (16.4 per game). The Pacers are also giving up the most points in the paint (63.0 per game) by a wide margin, and Boston can attack the rim as a result. See which team to pick here.
Why the Pacers can cover
Indiana has the benefit of home-court advantage in this matchup, and the Pacers have a stellar +7.8 net rating at home this season. Indiana is led by its dynamic offense, leading the NBA in offensive efficiency by a comfortable margin, generating 123.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Pacers are No. 1 in the league with 51.1% shooting from the field, including a league-best 60.2% mark inside the 3-point arc. Indiana is also in the top five in both 3-point accuracy (38.4%) and 3-pointers (15.0 per game). The Pacers sit atop the league in assists (30.3 per game), fast break points (17.7 per game), and points in the paint (59.9 per game) this season, and Indiana can play freely against a relatively conservative Boston defense. The Celtics are in the bottom five of the league in creating only 12.5 turnovers per game in 2023-24. See which team to pick here.
How to make Pacers vs. Celtics picks
The model has simulated Celtics vs. Pacers 10,000 times and is leaning Under the total, projecting 240 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.
Who wins Celtics vs. Pacers, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that is on an 92-50 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.