Austin Wells hasn't changed much as a prospect since the Yankees selected him at the back of the first round in 2020, and he enters the year atop the big-league depth chart after getting 75 plate appearances to close 2023. Per Baseball Savant's three-year rolling average, Yankee Stadium has been the second-best park for lefty power, and the lefty-hitting Wells already has at least 50-grade power, so 20 homers seems doable as a rookie if he gets the workload of a starting catcher. In his minor-league career, the only level where Wells hit better than .261 was High-A, and he had a walk rate of 11 percent or higher at every minor-league stop, so he is going to be more valuable in OBP leagues than batting average leagues. An unsustainably-high 13.8 Barrel% in his small MLB sample helped generate optimistic x stats (.275 xBA, .566 xSLG, .367 xwOBA), and while he won't approach those numbers over a full season, there are enough encouraging signs with Wells that he makes for a viable second catcher in two-catcher leagues. Wells is a mediocre defensive catcher, so the biggest risk in fantasy is that his defense costs him playing time and he only hits 10-15 home runs instead of 20-plus. The projection system Steamer has Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt being worth more wins above replacement than Wells on a per plate appearance basis due to their defense, but it still seems like Wells will be given every chance to be the guy given his draft pedigree and offensive upside.
