The San Diego Padres have reportedly agreed to terms with Manny Machado on a 10-year deal worth $300 million. Arguably the winter's best free agent, Machado figures to soon form an impressive left side of the infield with Fernando Tatis Jr., perhaps baseball's brightest prospect.
While everyone grows accustomed to Machado being a Padre, it's worth noting that the New York Yankees -- who entered the winter expected to compete for Machado's services -- never seemed as serious about adding him as everyone had anticipated. The Yankees may not have even made Machado a formal offer:
Yankees never made a formal offer to Manny Machado, per a source, although they hosted him at Yankee Stadium. Machado wanted to top Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year/$325M deal, and although his reported amount is a free-agent record, Yankees didn’t want to offer something that large.
— James Wagner (@ByJamesWagner) February 19, 2019
While the Yankees met with Machado in December, they hardly engaged with him after that. From the first internal conversations the Yankees had about the possibility of adding Machado, there were strong voices in the room advocating against it.
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) February 19, 2019
Instead, the Yankees added to their infield with a series of economical moves. They signed DJ LeMahieu to a two-year deal worth $24 million, and added Troy Tulowitzki for the veteran's minimum. Tulowitzki is expected to get a shot at filling in for incumbent shortstop Didi Gregorius, who will miss at least the first two months of the season following Tommy John surgery.
LeMahieu and Tulowitzki are more cost-effective additions than Machado would have been, yet they're likely to produce less as well. LeMahieu, for his part, has appreciable bat-to-ball skills. He's hit .312 over the last three seasons, but park-adjusted OPS+ is just a tick above average, at 103. Tulowitzki, meanwhile, has struggled to stay on the field. He's appeared in 197 games since the start of the 2016 season. When Tulowitzki has played, he hasn't been his old All-Star self, either -- rather, he's hit .252/.312/.422 (94 OPS+) with 31 home runs.
Presumably the Yankees soured on Machado in part due to his asking price -- remember, New York added baseball's largest contract to its books when it acquired Giancarlo Stanton -- and his makeup. Machado committed a number of gaffes last October, including admitting that he wasn't "Johnny Hustle." Of course, the Yankees haven't seemed serious in their pursuit of Bryce Harper, either, meaning the cost was probably the real sticking point -- the Yankees are estimated to be about $12 million beyond the luxury tax threshold, per Cot's Contracts. Adding Machado would've pushed them closer to the additional surtax that comes with surpassing $20 and $40 million over, with the latter also including a draft-pick penalty.
Already there have been rumors about how the Yankees desire third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is entering his final season of team control with the Colorado Rockies. If the Yankees decided to wait on Arenado, it seems like a mistake. There's a legitimate chance Arenado never hits the open market -- and, even if he does, his blemishes (he's nearing his 28th birthday and has a sizable split in his home-road performance) will become more distracting. Every free agent, it seems, is more attractive at a distance.
Until then, the Yankees will field one of the best teams in the game. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system has them down for 96 wins, best in the American League East. Should the Yankees fall short of winning the division crown -- or, heck, the pennant -- once more, their fans will be more than justified in wondering if not signing Machado was a mistake.
