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With the 2024 Kentucky Derby approaching on Saturday, May 4, bettors are already looking for 2024 Kentucky Derby longshots to back. One of the more intriguing 2024 Kentucky Derby horses is Just Steel. Trained by 88-year-old Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Just Steel is the most experienced horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field with 11 career starts. He has a pair of wins and has hit the board in six other races, including three runner-up finishes in his last four races. At 25-1 in the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, should you back Just Steel in your Kentucky Derby futures bets, or are there better values found in the favorites such as Fierceness (3-1), Sierra Leone (7-2) or Catching Freedom (8-1)?

Which horses should you back with your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year. 

Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness won the third race of his career at the end of March, cruising to a dominant win in the Florida Derby. It was the second Grade 1 victory for him, as he also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November.

However, consistency has been an issue for the Todd Pletcher-trained horse, as he finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October and third in the Holy Bull in February. Pletcher has struggled in recent years at Churchill Downs, with 15 of his last 16 Derby starters failing to hit the board. Demling likes the potential that Fierceness has shown, but he is ultimately going in a different direction with his top 2024 Kentucky Derby prediction. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 35-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A 3-year old colt trained by Bill Mott, Resilience didn't win any races during his 2-year-old season, but he has surged thus far in 2024.

He started the year by winning a maiden special weight race on New Year's Day. He followed that up with a fourth-place finish at the Risen Star in February and a win at the Wood Memorial on April 6 that punched his ticket into the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup. Demling says Resilience is "ready to be in the mix," and likes him as a 2024 Kentucky Derby sleeper. See which other horses to back at SportsLine

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures

HorseOddsProjection
Fierceness3-1SEE PICKS
Sierra Leone7-2SEE PICKS
Catching Freedom8-1SEE PICKS
Forever Young10-1SEE PICKS
Dornoch12-1SEE PICKS
Track Phantom15-1SEE PICKS
Honor Marie16-1SEE PICKS
Mystik Dan16-1SEE PICKS
Domestic Product18-1SEE PICKS
Endlessly20-1SEE PICKS
Just A Touch20-1SEE PICKS
Deterministic20-1SEE PICKS
Just Steel25-1SEE PICKS
Resilience 35-1SEE PICKS
Stronghold35-1SEE PICKS
West Saratoga80-1SEE PICKS
No More Time85-1SEE PICKS
Catalytic100-1SEE PICKS
Hades100-1SEE PICKS
T O Password100-1SEE PICKS
Society Man101-1SEE PICKS
Grand Mo the First125-1SEE PICKS
Encino350-1SEE PICKS
Liberal Arts350-1SEE PICKS
Common Defense500-1SEE PICKS
Epic Ride 500-1SEE PICKS
Lucky Jeremy 500-1SEE PICKS