Pac-12 Fantasy Preview

The Pac-12's inaugural season will commence in 2011, but how will the additions of Colorado and Utah shift the conference landscape? John Baker of College Fantasy Football Insider breaks it down.

With nine of the 12 schools returning quarterbacks, the "conference of quarterbacks" looks to be primed for a banner season in 2011. Led by Andrew Luck of Stanford, the Pac-12 offers a stable of throwers and multi-dimensional signal callers from Arizona's Nick Foles to Oregon's Darron Thomas to Jordan Wynn of Utah. Offense will get plenty of respect in the Pac-12, and there's certainly enough defense to make people keep an eye on both sides of the ball as the conference continues to improve its speed and physicality defensively.

Oregon is again the team to beat, with USC, Arizona and Stanford looking to toss a banana peel on the dance floor. Want a sleeper team? Look to Arizona State, which returns 19 starters from a 6-6 team, including playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Given the new 12-team conference and the split into six-team divisions, the Pac-12 has certainly opened up new avenues of revenue for the league, particularly in what promises to be a very competitive season. At first look, it would seem that there are 10 teams very capable of playing in a bowl game, with Washington State and California expected to be bottom feeders.

Arizona

2010 Record: 11-2
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 53rd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 41st
Base Offense: Multiple spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 5/7
Significant Losses: DL Brooks Reed, TE A.J. Simmons, DL, Lolomana Mikaele
Newcomer of Note: Wide receiver Dan Buckner is eligible at last. The Texas transfer looks like he's going to win a spot opposite Juron Criner, giving the Wildcats another receiving option for defenses to contend with. Lamar De Rego is another name to keep an eye on when he arrives in the fall. With the Cats losing their three-man defensive end rotation to the NFL draft, De Rego has a chance to be an impact guy right out of the gate.

2011 Thoughts: Offensively, the skill positions have plenty of potential with Foles, running back Keola Antolin, Criner and company. The issue will be finding an offensive line that can keep Foles upright, and give Antolin and the running game room to keep defenses honest. Expect this defense to be a Top-25 group and make enough big plays to provide Foles and his teammates opportunities to light up the scoreboard most nights. For the Wildcats, repeating last year's success in this year's Pac-12 means the "big uglies" up front need to find their mojo out of the gate.

Final Analysis: Arizona should be able to score with just about anyone in the Pac-12, the region and the nation. Foles looks like he'll be a high NFL draft pick and Criner fought off injuries to post a big 2010. Without beating the O-line thing into the ground, the Wildcats have the defensive experience and playmakers to stay in every game, and the offensive skill people to do plenty of damage. This team will be good this season, but perhaps not 11-2 good.

Arizona State

2010 Record: 6-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 27th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 55th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 10/9
Significant Losses: QB Steven Threet, DL Lawrence Guy, PK Thomas Weber, P Trevor Hankins
Newcomer of Note: Defensive tackle Will Sutton couldn't get on the field a year ago while struggling with academic issues. Those have been taken care of and Sutton used a very impressive spring to position himself nicely in the Sun Devil defense.

2011 Thoughts: If coach Dennis Erickson is going to lead this team to someplace special, the time is now. The 19 returning starters and plenty of other letterwinners mean the Sun Devils have experience to weather most storms. Solid receivers and a potent running game, along with the return of the entire offensive line, mean the only missing ingredient is a quarterback. If Brock Osweiler the answer? The job was essentially his by default after Threet's forced retirement, but Osweiler has experience and has had some success. If he gives the offense something that resembles good quarterback play, the state of Arizona could be a point-a-minute type of place. Defensively, if Vontaze Burfict can harness emotional meltdowns, he could have a special year for a defense that seems to have all the pieces in place to be special. The Sun Devils could very well be the sleeping giant in the Pac-12.

Final Analysis: Expect Osweiler to be a good quarterback and the Sun Devils to be a team that no one wants to deal with as the season progresses. The offense has all the pieces, which should make Osweiler's job easier, but it's going to be the defense which defines this team. With nine starters back and enough playmakers, the ASU defenders have the chance to win the field position battle more often, providing good opportunities for this offense. Here's your sleeper team in the Pac-12.

California

2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 73rd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 40th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/6
Significant Losses: QB Kevin Riley, RB Shane Vereen, DL Keith Browner, DB Darian Hagan, DL Cameron Jordan, LB Mike Mohammed
Newcomer of Note: Linebacker David Wilkerson looked like he was going to be a player as a true freshman a year ago, but a broken hand derailed his run. Now healed, the redshirt frosh looks like he's going to be a starter and likely impact player for the Golden Bears defense this fall.

2011 Thoughts: New quarterback, new running backs and plenty of questions surround the Golden Bears this season. Perhaps the best addition was the subtraction of Riley, who never really lived up to the hype. While the offense has receiving strength and some offensive line returnees, as has been the case at Cal for a while the quarterback play will be pivotal. Zach Maynard, the Buffalo transfer, won the job out of spring practice, so we'll see. Defensively, this team loses enough playmakers to make you wonder if they can fill the gap.

Final Analysis: The Bears could very well be in a dogfight to reach last year's 5-7 record. Though Maynard's proven himself once, that was at Buffalo, a much smaller stage than the Pac-12, where he'll face all kinds of speed off the edges and in the secondary. Running back Isi Sofele is small, but certainly has the ability to make things happen. There a too many questions offensively and too many impact players lost on defense. Look for Cal to slip deep into the Pac-12 doldrums.

Colorado

2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 84th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 91st
Base Offense: Pro style
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 9/8
Significant Losses: WR Scotty McKnight, OL Nate Solder, LB B.J Beatty, PK Aric Goodman
Newcomer of Note: Daniel Munyer came off a redshirt freshman year and immediately took hold of the starting center spot for the Buffs. He was able to hold onto the job throughout spring practice and will be counted on to help Colorado develop a running game with "an edge," the way coach Jon Embree wants it.

2011 Thoughts: There's a lot back on defense, which could be good or bad. Simply put -- the Buffs defense has to get better and help this offense more often. There are enough returning parts to think the defense will be better, but with a new coaching staff on hand, it's hard to gauge. Offensively, nine returning starters and a determination to run the ball should take some pressure off quarterback Tyler Hansen and increase the workload of running back Rodney Stewart, who was effective a year ago. It's time for Michigan transfer Toney Clemons to show a little more at wide receiver and step up alongside Paul Richardson. Clemons flashed big-play ability in practice and this past spring, but has yet to deliver consistently -- though shoddy quarterback play could be a big part of that. Expect better production from the passing game in 2011.

Final Analysis: Stewart is a gem who gets overshadowed a bit by some other backs out west, but he's primed for a big season. Embree, who is in his first year, has already moved some people out as he tries to instill a much more physical, old-school mentality in his team. It's hard not to like the to-the-point Embree and his attempts to get his team in the right frame of mind. The growing pains will be tough, but there's plenty to build around. Expect the defense to be better than it was last season, and that should trigger some better offensive opportunities for an offense that had to work hard to score points a year ago.

Oregon

2010 Record: 12-1
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 1st
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 12th
Base Offense: Spead
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/6
Significant Losses: WR Jeff Maehl, OL Bo Thran, DL Brandon Bair, LB Casey Mathews, LB Spencer Paysinger, DL Kenny Rowe
Newcomer of Note: Colt Lyerla graduated early from high school and was a full participant in Oregon's spring work. Lyerla worked at tight end and H-back for the Ducks, and drew praise on several occasions from coach Chip Kelly.

Lache Seastrunk may be a redshirt freshman behind a lot of quality running backs (LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner), but he turned heads plenty during the spring. A year's maturity and acclimation to the college game at Oregon's pace looks like it had the desired impact on this big-time 2010 recruit.

2011 Thoughts: Oregon's offense has plenty of speed and playmakers across its two-deep depth chart, but it will be the defense that determines Oregon's bowl fortunes. The Ducks lost some key defensive linemen and linebackers -- something that can't be underestimated. While Oregon's offense plays fast, its defense did a tremendous job of getting three-and-outs quickly, forcing turnovers and generally putting the offense in prime scoring opportunities in 2010. The strength of the defensive returners is in the secondary, so finding stout defenders up front is critical. The Ducks offense will do its thing, but it's the defense that will determine how big a bite out of the Pac-12 Oregon will take.

Final Analysis: Oregon has running backs, receivers and a quarterback who makes it all move. The question is whether it will be enough to get the Ducks back into the big dance. In 2010, Oregon certainly made opponents stop and stare with its high-tempo offense. In 2011, the question beckons whether or not opposing defenses catch up or is the intensity and talent just too much for most teams to deal with? Oregon will score points in bunches again, but the defense will be the key to the Ducks season. It was an underrated aspect during last year's march to the title game, but takes on a bigger role after losing some key components. Expect 10 wins, but getting the final two will be a challenge.

Oregon State

2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 82nd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 64th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/4
Significant Losses: RB Jacquizz Rodgers, OL Alex Linnenkohl, DL Gabe Miller, DL Stephen Paea, DB James Dockery, LB Dwight Roberson, PK Justin Kahut
Newcomer of Note: The Beavers like to throw to the tight end and may have found a dandy in redshirt freshman Connor Hamlett, who caught 11 passes for 153 yards in the spring game. With Joe Halahuni nursing a shoulder injury and questions surrounding the receiving corps, Hamlett could be another attractive target.

2011 Thoughts: There are a lot of questions with quarterback Ryan Katz, wide receiver James Rodgers and Halahuni, who are all nursing injuries of various severities. This is the season we're going to find out if wide receiver Markus Wheaton is the type of playmaker you can hang your hat on for a full campaign. Wheaton has shown flashes, but with so many playmakers gone or suspect, he's going to get a chance to touch the ball a lot. Defensively, this team was not its usual stingy self a year ago, and with four starters back perhaps that's not such a bad thing, though losing a Paea in the middle can't ever be a good thing. Coach Mike Riley and his staff pride themselves on taking low-level recruits and turning them into defensive mainstays. The Beavers will have their hands full trying to get the defense up to its past standards. With Lance Mitchell and Brandon Hardin in the secondary, the back line has some nice components, but it's the front seven that needs to be peeled back to see what's there. If they struggle, a 5-7 record could be on the table again.

Final Analysis: Oregon State simply rolled out the unenviable trifecta of poor offensive play, a defense that suddenly bent a lot more than it used to and injuries that stymied any momentum the team tried to build. Katz went into an offensive funk after throwing three crucial picks against Washington and the offense followed. With a defense that's very green and offensive questions all around him, including a reshuffled offensive line, Katz is the key to the 2011 campaign. Things seem unsettled in Corvallis, Ore., for the first time in a while.

Southern Cal

2010 Record: 8-5
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 37th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 63rd
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/7
Significant Losses: FB Stanley Havili, WR Ronald Johnson, OL Tyron Smith, OL Kristofer O'Dowd, DL Jurrell Casey, DB Shareece Wright, PK Joe Houston
Newcomer of Note: In a crowded backfield, redshirt junior Curtis McNeal, who has seen very little action so far in his career, will get his chance. McNeal was the leading rusher in the spring game and scored a couple of times. Perhaps most important, the 5-7, 180-pounder demonstrated a big-play ability that the Trojans want. He's still got some hurdles to clear, but he definitely turned some heads in the spring and thrust himself into the rotation.

2011 Thoughts: Despite the sanctions, USC still has as much physical talent in its two-deep depth chart as any other team in the Pac-12. The Trojans must find a reliable running back to keep defenses honest and give quarterback Matt Barkley the chance to show his talents. Marc Tyler keeps getting into trouble, so perhaps someone else in the stable will step forward. Between Barkley, any of the four- and five-star running backs and receiver Robert Woods there's plenty to like offensively. The defense just needs to get better. Ranking in the bottom half of the defensive standings in 2010 simply makes no sense for a program with this caliber of athletes. Expect the Trojans to get back to their brand of defensive football. With seven starters back and plenty of youngsters who saw playing time a year ago, 2011 looks like a season for a rebound on defense.

Final Analysis: An 8-5 record simply doesn't cut it for USC. Lane Kiffin now has had a year to get things under control, and it would be silly not to expect a major improvement. The Trojans faded in the league race a year ago, but that's probably a luxury the rest of the league won't have again. Expect big things from Barkley and this defense, and pencil USC into the race for the Pac-12 title. It might not win it, but it will have a say in who does.

Stanford

2010 Record: 12-1
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 9th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 9th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 5/6
Significant Losses: WR Doug Baldwin, FB/LB Owen Marecic, WR Ryan Whalen, OL Chase Beeler, DL Sione Fua, DB Richard Sherman, PK Nate Whitaker
Newcomer of Note: Darren Daniel has been with the program a year, but he's a converted quarterback who was a playmaking wide receiver all spring. The worry is that with Chris Owusu chronically hurt and Whalen and Baldwin gone, the Cardinal is very iffy at receiver. Daniel, who is 6-4 and with good speed, made plays all spring long.

2011 Thoughts: Let's face it -- the offense is built around quarterback Andrew Luck, so expect him to continue to put his touch on the Stanford record books. If Stanford can mount a decent running game (Stepfan Tayloralert) and develop some receivers, Luck's numbers could be very attractive. As with just about every high-level quarterback, part of those numbers come courtesy of a defense that gets the ball back quickly and in good field position. The Stanford defense will be what it usually is -- a group of hard-working, blue-collar types. Last year's Top-10 ranking won't hold, but expect the defenders to be a Top-25 unit.

Final Analysis: It's Luck's team. Finding some wide receivers he's confident in will be key, as will getting the offensive line to come together. In the end, Luck will have plenty of success, but the chances of Stanford winning 12 games again is minimal. If it can get to 10, call it a major success.

UCLA

2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 104th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 85th
Base Offense: Multiple
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/8
Significant Losses: WR Morrell Presley, OL Ryan Taylor, LB Akeem Ayers, DB Rahim Moore, PK Kai Forbath
Newcomer of Note: He's a few slots down the depth chart, but freshman quarterback Brett Hundley created buzz around the Bruins' camp this spring. An early enrollee, Hundley showed enough promise to make fans around the program take notice. Given the way Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut alternate getting injured or play poorly, Hundley might be under center sooner than expected.

2011 Thoughts: While the defense has eight starters back, losing playmakers like Ayers and Moore can't be understated. However, the big bugaboo for the Bruins has been, and continues to be porous quarterback play. The Bruins quarterbacks do two things well -- get hurt and underwhelm. Whether it's Brehaut, Prince or Hundley, this team needs a quarterback who can stay upright, can complete passes and make a big play once in a while. The jury is definitely out on whether that quarterback exists on the roster.

Final Analysis: Coach Rick Neuheisel is on the hot seat as a 4-8 record again simply won't cut it with UCLA faithful. The Bruins have some talent on both sides of the ball, but have been tormented by a poor offense for too many years. The quarterbacks have to stay healthy and play well, the defense needs to find some new playmakers and running back Johnathan Franklin needs to make teams pay in the running game. The Bruins could players in the Pac-12 race early on before fading. They'll land a bowl and a 7-5 record.

Utah

2010 Record: 10-3
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 23rd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 24th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/5
Significant Losses: RB Matt Asiata, RB Eddie Wide, WR Jereme Brooks, DL Christian Cox, LB Chad Manis, DB Lamar Chapman, PK Joe Phillips
Newcomer of Note: Quarterback Tyler Shreve may have won the backup job, but with Jordan Wynn's penchant for getting hurt, the true freshman may be a blink of an eye away from major minutes under center this fall. Shreve threw for a touchdown in the spring game and showed enough elusiveness in the pocket and on the edge to make defenses squirm a bit.

With very experienced and productive running backs out the door, the Utes may have found a youngster who could make a difference. True freshman Harvey Langi drew repeated praise from coach Kyle Whittingham during the spring and figures to be in the mix come fall. He had 63 yards on 10 carries in the spring game.

2011 Thoughts: Wynn can be a very effective quarterback when he's healthy and that needs to happen this year. With both star running backs gone, the offense essentially falls on Wynn's shoulders in 2011. He's got some nice weapons at receiver and tight end, as well as an offensive line that returns three starters. The question is: Can Wynn make the leap up the quarterback ladder this season? Defensively, the line and secondary need some work, but with all three starting linebackers back in the fold expect Utah to be a Top-20 defense in 2011. It tends to be a no-name, hard-working group, but it creates turnovers and favorable field position situations more often than most people realize.

Final Analysis: What will make Wynn a better quarterback is a running game that resembles what Asiata and Wide delivered a year ago. Right now, Wynn is an injury-prone quarterback, who was protected by a very good running game in 2010. It's his offense now, and it's a make-or-break scenario.

Washington

2010 Record: 7-6
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 96th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 79th
Base Offense: Pro style
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/8
Significant Losses: QB Jake Locker, OL Ryan Tolar, FB Austin Sylvester, DB Nate Williams, DL Cameron Elisara, LB Victor Aiyewa
Newcomer of Note: John Timu didn't enroll until winter 2010, but he certainly made an impression during the spring. Timu spent most of the spring chasing quarterbacks and ball carriers from sideline to sideline, turning heads almost daily and thrusting himself into the linebacker mix heading into fall camp.

Lining up behind Timu could very well be sophomore safety Sean Parker, who has no career starts but certainly raised his value during the spring. He was a ball-hawk in the spring and certainly could be an impact player for a secondary that needs some.

2011 Thoughts: With Locker gone, sophomore Keith Price becomes the most watched guy in Seattle. Fortunately, with two top receivers -- Devin Aguilar and Jermaine Kearse -- three offensive linemen and running back Chris Polk all back in the fold, this offense will look different but should still be plenty effective. All Price needs to do is manage the offense, hit open receivers and let the talent around him do their thing. What's really to like for the Huskies is a defense that returns eight starters and is very experienced. No way is this unit near the bottom third in total defense. Expect a major statistical jump this season, and that's going to allow Price and Co. some advantageous scoring opportunities.

Final Analysis: It's a new era in Washington post-Locker, but the improvement the program has made under Steve Sarkisian will continue to be evident as the Huskies again chases a bowl berth. The defense will be improved, the offense will adjust to its new quarterback and eight or nine wins could be possible. The key will be getting Price acclimated quickly and letting his other weapons do the damage.

Washington State

2010 Record: 2-10
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 106th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 110th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 9/8
Significant Losses: RB James Montgomery, OL Micah Hannam, LB Myron Beck, PK Nico Grasu
Newcomer of Note: The Cougars need to stop the run this season and redshirt freshman Toni Pole emerged during the spring as a potential run stopper. Pole was tough to block during the spring and won a starting spot with his consistent play against the run.

While Logwone Mitz is the first-team running back, redshirt freshman Rickey Galvin certainly raised eyebrows during the spring. He's 5-8, 162 pounds, lightning quick and hard to get a hand on. He's also a big-play guy, which this offense desperately needs.

2011 Thoughts: With 17 starters returning, Wazzu has to be headed upward, doesn't it? The problem for the Cougars is that the Pac-12 will be a very good conference in 2011. The Cougars could be a much improved team, but still will struggle to win three or four games. Washington State has a very good receiving group led by Marquess Wilson, but until the quarterback play gets better, it will have moments of excitement surrounded by moments of ineptitude and ineffectiveness. This team struggled both offensively and defensively in 2010, and though 2011 looks better there are still plenty of areas that need improvement. Expect an upset or two, but no sustained success.

Final Analysis: Expect another tough season in Pullman, Wash. The Cougars are far better than they were a couple years ago when the program hit rock bottom, but the first season of Pac-12 play likely will not be kind to them. There are too many good offenses to torment a defense with too few playmakers. Wilson and Jared Karstetter are gifted receivers, but there are too many holes that doom Wazzu to another losing season. Think 2-10 and hope for 4-8.