We've given you our
early sneak peek at sleepers for this season, and now it's
time for the breakouts. These are players who have the chance to go from
good to great in 2015.
Some of the breakouts we identified last year in our three-part series
included Andrew Luck, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and Golden Tate. All
of them excelled in 2014 and jumped up a tier in their performance.
Let's hope these 12 players follow suit.
We saw how good Hill could be once the Bengals gave him the starting job
in Week 9 when
Giovani Bernard was
injured. And he was pretty special. He closed the season with double
digits in Fantasy points in six of his final nine games, and every time he
had 15 or more carries (seven games) during the season he scored at least
11 Fantasy points. The Bengals are expected to have a similar workload for
Hill and Bernard when both were healthy to end the year. Bernard still had
double digits in carries in three of his final six games, but Hill had
18-plus carries in four of those same outings. Hill will be the primary
rusher and work at the goal line, but Bernard will be a change-of-pace
runner and work as a receiver out of the backfield. We doubt Hill will
average 23 carries like he did over the final three games of the regular
season, but he should get 15-20 a week. There's a good track record when
he gets 15-plus carries, and he has the potential to be Top 5 running back
in 2015. He's worth drafting early in Round 2 and could end up as a
first-round pick come August.
Frank Gore might return to the 49ers this season as a free agent,
but it appears the team is ready to move on. And we hope they do. Gore
could still land a starting job elsewhere -- the Colts are a rumored
destination -- but leaving would open the door for Hyde to become the
starter for the 49ers. The
Sacramento Bee said Hyde "has a rare
combination of size and agility, and his style seems to mesh well with the
stretch-run style blocking new offensive line coach Chris Foerster used
effectively when he was in Washington." Hyde didn't show much as a rookie
with limited work behind Gore, as he finished with 83 carries for 333
yards and four touchdowns and 12 catches for 68 yards in 14 games. But
Gore managed 255 carries for 1,106 yards and four touchdowns and 11
catches for 111 yards and one touchdown. Give Hyde the 16 carries Gore
averaged on a weekly basis, and he should be able to finish as a Top 15
Fantasy running back in all leagues. Hyde, if he's the starter, will
likely be drafted in Round 4, but there could be enough hype to move him
into Round 3.
We mentioned Murray as a sleeper last season, and it took way too long for
him to get an extended look by the inept Raiders. But in Week 12, Murray
exploded against the Chiefs with four carries for 112 yards and two
touchdowns. He suffered a concussion in the game, so who knows what
monstrous stats he could have achieved, and after sitting out Week 13, he
was the main rusher to close the season. He finished with at least 85
total yards in three of his final four outings, and the new Raiders regime
is saying all the right things for his outlook this season. "I have a very
positive impression," new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave said about
Murray in January. "He has tremendous size and speed. … I'm looking
forward to getting on the field and finding out what he's all about and
what his strengths are so we can tailor our run game so it's right up his
alley." Oakland could keep
Maurice Jones-Drew
or bring back free agent
Darren McFadden,
and at least one other running back will be added for depth. But hopefully
Murray will be the starter this season, and he's someone to target in
Round 4 based on his potential.
We hope the Rams don't pull a Rams and go from one promising rookie
running back to another for the third season in a row. In 2013,
Zac Stacy looked like the real deal, but he struggled in 2014 and was
replaced by Mason. The good news is we're expecting Mason to keep his job
this year. After not playing for the first five weeks last season because
of his inexperience in pass protection, Mason finished the final 11 games
with 179 carries for 765 yards and four touchdowns and 16 catches for 148
yards and a touchdown. He only had four games with double digits in
Fantasy points in a standard league, but the Rams should give him every
chance to succeed. "We drafted Tre because we thought Tre had something
special," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said at the NFL Combine. Mason still
needs to improve as a pass blocker and show he can do a better job
catching the ball out of the backfield, but there's enough upside here to
warrant a pick in Round 4 in the majority of leagues. If
Sam Bradford can play a full season or there's an upgrade at
quarterback that will also improve Mason's outlook.
The Browns are expected to bring in competition for Crowell and Terrance
West, but we still expect Crowell to get the majority of work this season.
He did well last season when he got an increased workload. There were nine
games when Crowell had at least 11 carries, and he finished with either 90
total yards or a touchdown in six of them. His final stats were 148
carries for 607 yards and eight touchdowns and nine catches for 87 yards.
Former Browns running back Earnest Byner told the team's official website,
"Crowell has the most potential to be the type of leader and player the
Browns need. His talent is there. I think he is open to learning and
growing. His future is as bright as any young back in the league." The
Browns will likely rely on their ground game with questions at quarterback
and receiver, and Crowell could see an increase over the 10 carries he
averaged per game as an undrafted rookie from Alabama State. He's worth
drafting in Round 4 or 5 in the majority of leagues, and he should end up
as at least a Top 20 Fantasy running back with the chance to be in the Top
15 range.
Williams is expected to again share the load with
Rashad Jennings, but the Giants should give Williams a bigger
opportunity in his second season. Williams struggled early in his rookie
season and didn't take advantage of the four games Jennings missed from
Week 6-10, but he closed the season playing well with at least 11 Fantasy
points in three of his final four games. He had two 100-yard outings over
that span, and in three of those games he had at least 18 carries.
Williams finished the season with 217 carries for 721 yards and seven
touchdowns and 18 catches for 130 yards. He needs to improve dramatically
on his 3.3 yards per carry, and if the Giants improve their offensive line
as expected then that will help the ground game. Jennings is better suited
as a change of pace rusher and receiver out of the backfield, but Williams
can run for 1,000 yards and score double digits in touchdowns. Think of
Alfred Morris or
Mark Ingram, and
Williams is a similar type of runner. He's worth drafting in Round 5 in
standard leagues and not before Round 6 in PPR formats.
Cooks wasn't in the class of
Odell Beckham,
Mike Evans and
Kelvin Benjamin as one of the top rookie receivers last year, but he was
doing well before a wrist injury in Week 11 ended his season. He finished
the year with 53 catches for 550 yards and three touchdowns on 69 targets,
and he should have the chance for a better performance this year.
Jimmy Graham is obviously the No. 1 target for
Drew Brees, but there are several candidates for No. 2 with Cooks,
Marques Colston and
Kenny Stills. Cooks
clearly has the most upside, and he should develop into a quality talent
in his sophomore campaign. Before getting hurt, Cooks had seven or more
targets six times. He had six-plus catches in four of those outings, 74 or
more yards four times and a touchdown in three of those games. We expect
Brees to help Cooks develop into a PPR star, and he has potential in all
formats with a mid-round pick, who should become a weekly starter. "I'm
completely confident in my abilities, and there's no question about it,"
Cooks said to FOX Sports. "This work that I'm going to put in during the
offseason will be huge for next year. I can't wait to get out there and be
a playmaker."
The Eagles are expected to bring back free agent receiver
Jeremy Maclin, which is a good thing since he's a standout No. 1 option
for their offense. But Matthews is a close No. 2. He closed last season on
a high note with double digits in Fantasy points in five of his final nine
games with three 100-yard outings and six touchdowns over that span -- all
with
Mark Sanchez in for the injured
Nick Foles (collarbone). Over that same span, Maclin had double digits
in Fantasy points three times with two 100-yard outings and four
touchdowns. We'll find out soon enough who will be the starting
quarterback in Philadelphia this year, whether it's Foles or potentially
the Eagles trade up for rookie Marcus Mariota, but Matthews will continue
to be a focal point of this passing game. He's a definite upgrade over
Riley Cooper as a starter, and Matthews' stock would soar if Maclin is
gone. But if everything remains the same in Philadelphia in 2015, Matthews
is well worth a pick in Round 6 in all formats.
Moncrief had two huge games in 2014 as a rookie, which was Week 8 at
Pittsburgh (seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown) and Week 13
against Washington (three catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns). The
rest of the season he was buried behind
Reggie Wayne
and
Hakeem Nicks, but both of those guys
could be gone this season, with Wayne possibly retiring and Nicks a free
agent. The Colts receiving corps could look dramatically different with
Moncrief and rookie
Duron Carter sharing
the field with T.Y. Hilton, but everyone should benefit by playing with an
elite quarterback in
Andrew Luck. Colts
coach Chuck Pagano said at the NFL Combine he expects a "big second year"
from Moncrief and the "sky is the limit." You have to gamble on Moncrief a
little bit because he has to prove he can do more than just make big
plays, but he enters this season as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with the
chance to be a weekly starter. We expect Luck to help Moncrief become a
future star.
Another standout rookie from the 2014 class, Bryant got a late start on
showing us all what he could do. The 6-foot-4 speedster was inactive for
the first six games of the season, but the Steelers finally started using
him in Week 7 and he did well. He finished the season with 26 catches for
549 yards and eight touchdowns, and he had double digits in Fantasy points
five times. If you project his stats over 16 games, Bryant would have
finished with 42 catches for 878 yards and 13 touchdowns. Like Moncrief,
Bryant has to prove he can do more than just make big plays since he had
one game with more than four catches. But as he continues to gain the
trust of
Ben Roethlisberger and move up to
No. 2 on the depth chart opposite
Antonio Brown
than his production should continue to increase. "I want to be
consistent," Bryant said to the team's official website. "I want to put a
great year together next year." Bryant should be drafted in Round 7, but
he could develop into a starting option in the majority of leagues.
We saw some flashes of how good Adams could be as a rookie in 2014, and
his opportunity could grow immensely this season. There's a slight chance
Randall Cobb leaves the Packers as a free agent, which would make Adams a
starter opposite
Jordy Nelson, opening the
door for a huge year. But even if Cobb returns as expected, Adams will be
No. 3 on the depth chart, which is a great thing when catching passes from
Aaron Rodgers. Adams had a six-game stretch starting in Week 5 last
year where he caught a touchdown or had 70-plus receiving yards in five
games. He then was a star against New England in Week 13 with six catches
for 121 yards on 11 targets, and he blew up in the playoffs against Dallas
with seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. He finished the regular
season with 38 catches for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but he has the
potential for much more, especially if Cobb is gone. Keep an eye on what
the Packers do with their receiving corps this year, but Adams is easily
worth a mid-round pick as the No. 3 receiver behind Nelson and Cobb. And
if Cobb somehow leaves Green Bay, Adams' value will skyrocket.
Kelce was someone we mentioned as a sleeper last season, and he had a
great first year in the NFL with 67 catches for 862 yards and five
touchdowns (he missed his rookie year with a knee injury). That made him
the No. 9 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues. But now he has the chance
to jump into the Top 3 if things go as expected. The Chiefs definitely
need to make Kelce more of a focal point on offense since he had just 87
targets. By comparison,
Rob Gronkowski
had 131 targets, and Kelce also played about 50 percent of the snaps
through the first 10 games of the season. He played on nearly 90 percent
of the snaps in the final six games, and he had three games with at least
eight Fantasy points over that span. The Chiefs already released
Anthony Fasano this offseason, which should open more playing time and
red-zone targets for Kelce. Last year, Fasano had three touchdowns in the
red zone on four targets, and Kelce had three touchdowns on 11 targets.
It's just one less roadblock for Kelce to become a star. I would draft
Kelce in Round 5 this season, and I plan to move him ahead of
Julius Thomas if he leaves the Broncos as expected. After Gronkowski and
Jimmy Graham, Kelce should be then next best tight end this year.
