Braves 3B Chipper Jones has his eye on playing 150 games this season. His goal seems a little far-fetched with his history of injury problems. Add to the fact that he is already nursing a hamstring injury and you can expect Larry Wayne to be out of the lineup at some point (perhaps multiple times) in 2008. However, he is still one of the most coveted injury-risk players on the market because he swings a mean bat when healthy.
Juan Gonzalez is on the comeback trail with the Cardinals after not having played in the majors since 2005 with the Indians. He is not off to a bad start with a .333 average (3-for-9), one homer and four RBI. His homer came off Johan Santana, who he's had a lot of success against in his career. The 38-year-old outfielder is still a long shot to make the roster, but if he does, it likely will be in a reserve role. His Fantasy value is still limited to deep NL-only leagues.
It's unfortunate, but we might be witnessing the decline Carlos Delgado. A wrist injury hobbled him at the plate in 2007 and now a hip injury is keeping him idle in spring training. They might have to get industrial tape to keep Delgado together. He is no longer a must-have Fantasy first baseman.
The Giants were happy to win the Barry Zito sweepstakes prior to the 2007 season, but now they likely wish they could get a refund or at least store credit. After a disappointing first season in the National League, Zito did little in his first spring start to erase those memories. Zito gave up eight runs and seven hits against the A's, his former team, on Saturday. Zito is not worried, but this has to be a red flag for Fantasy owners. Zito's days as a dominant Fantasy ace are done. He plays for a perennial last place team and is barely hanging on as a top 50 Fantasy starter.
It's very encouraging to hear that Blue Jays 1B Lyle Overbay is swinging the bat well after two hand operations curtailed his 2007 season. Overbay is hitting .429 (3-for-7) with two doubles and one RBI in three spring games. Overbay might not repeat his 22-homer, 92-RBI performance of 2006, but he is definitely worth a flier in all AL-only and in the late rounds of larger mixed leagues.
If the Dodgers are smart, they are going to find a way to give Matt Kemp everyday at-bats. This kid is a five-tool player and is a terror at the plate. He hit .342 in 292 plate appearances last season. Already in spring training, he is hitting .462 (6-for-13) and has two stolen bases in four games. He can hit for power, average and steal bases. L.A. might be better using a platoon of Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre than Kemp and Either.
The buzz is already humming around Diamondbacks pitching prospect Max Scherzer. He made his Cactus League debut Saturday against the White Sox, allowing one run in two innings. However, he has been dazzling in camp with his 96 mph fastball. He is likely ticketed to open the season at Triple-A, but long-term Fantasy owners need to keep tabs on this kid.
Felipe Paulino is another young pitcher turning heads early in camp. The Astros already consider the 24-year-old a frontline starter of the future, and his arrival to the majors could be as early as April. There is a chance with a dominant spring he could grab the fifth spot in the rotation. NL-only Fantasy owners will want to pick him off waivers if that's the case.
Carlos Gonzalez might have a leg up on the center field job in Oakland with the way he has opened spring training. Gonzalez, who came over in the Dan Haren deal, leads the A's with 14 spring at-bats after five games. He is hitting .357 (5-for-14) with two doubles and two RBI. He has outstanding long-term potential for keeper leagues and is a sleeper in AL-only formats. He might even end up being a sleeper in mixed leagues.
Talking about super sleepers, store this name for future consideration: Eugenio Velez. The speedy infielder is making a strong case to crack the Giants' roster and manager Bruce Bochy might just have a spot for him -- shortstop. Omar Vizquel might miss the start of the season with a knee injury. Velez has opened spring training with a .400 average (6-for-15), one triple and five stolen bases. He has swiped 122 bags his last two seasons in the minors. If Velez can sustain at the plate, the Giants might be forced to bring him up to the majors ASAP.
Draft Day Hysteria
What are your thoughts on Dodgers 1B James Loney and where he should be drafted? -- Bob Dealy
MH: Loney was upset after being sent down to the minors to open the 2007 season. He was on the verge of demanding a trade, but the organization outlined his potential rise to stardom. Loney cooled his jets and was up in the majors, for good, by June. He finished the season with a .331 average, 15 homers and 67 RBI. The first base job is all his this season and manager Joe Torre is toying with the idea of hitting Loney third. I'm a huge Loney fan. I think he is on the verge of being the next great Fantasy first baseman. Most people are going to draft him as a No. 2 first baseman, but he has a great chance to end up being a No. 1. He is being drafted as high as the ninth round and as low as the 22nd round in mixed leagues. I like him anywhere from the 11th-15th round.
I'm in an AL-only Head-to-Head league that is eight teams deep and uses three starting pitchers. Would it be wise to draft all your pitching from the same team? -- Bill Brewster, Peabody, Mass.
MH: Bill, get your head out of the clouds. First, it's not advisable to put your all your eggs in one basket. Second, there is no way in an AL-only league that you will be able to draft the top three pitchers on one given team. You might be able to get the first, third and fifth guy, but that's not a good strategy. You are in a pretty shallow league, so there will be some decent arms available that don't play on the same team.
We have a 12-team Rotisserie league and for the first time we are starting the keeper format with four players (two pitchers, two batters). I am torn between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder since I have already decided my other keeper is Russell Martin. I picked Prince in the eighth round, which means I will only lose the eighth-round pick. Whereas in Pujols' case it would be a first-round pick. With the injury concern on Pujols (elbow), I was leaning towards keeping Prince. What are your thoughts? -- Uma Pathy, Toronto, Ontario
MH: If I can't change your mind passing on Martin and keeping the two first basemen, then the easy choice is Fielder. He is a first-round talent that you would be keeping as an eighth rounder. It's a no-brainer. I'm one of the few people not intimidated by Pujols' injury and he has been great to open spring training. However, Prince is a rising star with 50-homer potential on a yearly basis.
How good, both now and in the future, can Alex Rios be? Is he just hitting his stride or was last season just luck? -- Jason Santelli, Minn.
MH: Rios was on the rise in 2006 before a staph infection cut into his playing time. He played a full season in 2007 and even made an All-Star appearance. I don't believe his success is a fluke, but I do think he has reached his ceiling. I'm not looking for more than a .300 average, 25-30 homers, 85-90 RBI and 15-20 stolen bases from Rios in his career. Those are great numbers, don't get me wrong, but too expect much more is a reach.
Keeper Corner
I'm looking for advice on which six players to keep: Joe Mauer, Albert Pujols, Brandon Phillips, Garrett Atkins, Carl Crawford, Matt Holliday, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt. Your thoughts? -- Rich Guillermo
MH: Why do you need my help? It looks like you are doing just fine, Rich. But since you asked, I like Pujols, Crawford, Holliday, Sabathia, Beckett and Phillips.
I have two available spots with each one of the following players costing me the same amount to keep. Which two would you keep: Tim Lincecum, Justin Upton, Carlos Marmol, Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Doumit? -- Adam Lisausky
MH: Lincecum and Upton. You are looking at two potential Fantasy must-haves in the years to come. Marmol might eventually take over as closer for the Cubs, but it's not a given. I expect Escobar and Rasmus to struggle at times in 2008. Doumit scares me because he is still a big injury-risk option.
I have to decide on my three keepers in a 10-team Head-to-Head league. The players in question are Mark Teixeira, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Miguel Tejada. Which one should I drop? -- Fran Marsh, Grenloch, N.J.
MH: I've been singing the praises of Tejada all preseason and believe he will return to his All-Star form. However, I'm still not taking him over Teixeira, Lee or Berkman. You can start Tex at first base and then have Berkman and Lee in your outfield. Give me that lineup any day, and I will manage to survive at shortstop.
Which third baseman do I keep: Ryan Braun or David Wright? -- Wes Van Bruggen
MH: This is not as easy a slam dunk as most of you Fantasy junkies might think. Just look at their numbers. Wright hit .324 with 30 homers, 107 RBI, 113 runs and 34 stolen bases in 604 at-bats. Braun hit .323 with 34 homers, 97 RBI, 91 runs and 15 stolen bases in 451 at-bats. He nearly matched Wright's production in far less at-bats. However, Wright is much more patient at the plate. He walked 94 times to Braun's 29. And he struck out 115 times, but Braun did so 112 times. Braun has a high ceiling, but I still like Wright because he is more accustomed to the majors.
Down on the Farm
What is your opinion of the Marlins prospect Gaby Sanchez? -- Matthew Kahl, Weston, Fla.
MH: My opinion -- he needs to stop playing at Class A. The former University of Miami product was a 2005 fourth-round draft pick. However, he made it as high as Class A Jupiter of the Florida State League last season. The kid is very versatile and can play a handful of positions. The Marlins would ideally like to bring him up as a catcher, but it appears as though he is destined to be a first baseman. He hasn't shown much power in his bat, but can hit for a decent average. He looks another year or two away from getting a crack at the majors.
I have Phillies pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco in our NL-only Rotisserie league farm system. I drafted him two years ago, and it looks like he might get a legitimate chance this year. What do you think about him and his chances of getting into the rotation? -- Greg Griff
MH: Carrasco has been one of the Phillies' prized arms the last few seasons, but he didn't show what all the hype was about until 2007. Carrasco finally developed a deceiving changeup and nasty curveball. He whipped through Class A ball with a 6-2 record (12 starts), 2.86 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings. He wasn't as dominant in Double-A (6-4, 4.88 ERA), but still showed promise. He has been baffling hitters early in spring training. He has pitched four scoreless innings over two appearances. He has allowed three hits and struck out three in four innings. At this point, it is going to take a flawless spring for Carrasco to open in the rotation. The Phillies can get by without him for now, but an injury in-season could bring the talented right-hander to the majors.
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