Over the last several weeks, Hiroki Kuroda has struggled with his command and with his popularity in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues. A DL stint, a two-game scoreless streak and near-perfect game later, Kuroda is a Fantasy favorite yet again. In the past two weeks, his ownership percentage has shot up from 29 percent to 72 percent, making him one of the most added NL players during that time. In addition to his one-hit wonder this past week, the first-year Dodger has started four other games in which he has not walked a batter, one of which was an 11-strikeout gem against the Cubs. Owners who are expecting Kuroda to sustain his 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP should be aware that those numbers have been aided by a favorable 26 percent H/BIP. His 5.2 K/9 rate is also not conducive to the care and maintenance of a low WHIP. It's easy to be awed by a pitcher who flirts with perfection, but the cold reality is that Kuroda is a pitcher with a Joe Blanton skill set.

While not nearly as popular as Kuroda, Dodger teammate Chan Ho Park is also experiencing a surge in pickups. He has been added to teams in 14 percent of CBSSports.com leagues in the past week, making him the seventh most popular NL free agent acquisition for Week 16. For most of this season, when Park was pitching out of the Dodger bullpen, he was a regular on the "Lucky Pitchers" list due to an extremely low H/BIP rate. Since entering the rotation, his luck with balls in play has dried up, but he has more than made up for it with skill numbers reminiscent of his best years. Park is a must-own in NL-only leagues, but given the options available to mixed league owners, he needs to prove himself over a few more starts before he can be considered a reasonable option.

More guys in demand

Cody Ross, OF, Florida
Week 15 Ownership: 9 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 51 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 1st
The Skinny: After compiling some ridiculous numbers in part-time play during 2007, Marlins fans and Fantasy owners wondered what Ross might do if given some real playing time. I think we are finding out now. As recently as two weeks ago, commentators were labeling Ross an "all or nothing" player who could dazzle with occasional power but struggle to keep his average above .200. The characterization was unfair and unfounded, as Ross has decent contact skills. His depressed average was as much the result of a fluky sub-20 percent H/BIP rate as his .335 average last year was largely due to a propitious 37 percent rate. Now that Ross is getting the chance to play regularly, his H/BIP is evening out, his average is up to .268, and he could knock in 90 runs. Even once he cools off, Ross deserves to be rostered in a lot more than half of our Fantasy leagues.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 L.A. Dodgers/Cincinnati/Florida 8% 24% 0.204 25% 3.9
2007 Florida 10% 22% 0.318 37% 10.9
2008 Florida 7% 20% 0.259 27% 6.1

Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York Mets
Week 15 Ownership: 31 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 62 percent
Rank in NL Most Added: 2nd
The Skinny: To look at Pelfrey's skill stats this year, it would appear that he has achieved his seven wins and 3.93 ERA by keeping the ball in the park and stranding the many baserunners he's put on. The low strikeout rate, elevated walk rate and 33 percent H/BIP look like a lethal combination for WHIP, and sure enough, Pelfrey is sporting a sky-high 1.53 mark. However, these overall stats mask the fact that Pelfrey has been pitching much better over the past six weeks. His strikeout rate over that period is a more respectable 6.3 per nine innings, and not coincidentally, his ERA has shrunk by almost a run and a half. He is not yet at the point of matching his gaudy minor league numbers, but Pelfrey is showing steady progress. At this point, he could be useful to owners in all formats for ERA, WHIP and wins.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 Binghamton (Double-A) 3.5 10.5 0.3 N/A N/A
2007 N.Y. Mets 4.8 5.6 0.7 34% 5.99
2008 N.Y. Mets 3.8 5.3 0.4 33% 4.58

Others drawing interest

Rank Player Week 15 ownership Week 16 ownership Percentage change
3 Jerry Hairston, OF, Cincinnati 19% 48% 29%
4 Hiroki Kuroda, SP, L.A. Dodgers 44% 72% 28%
5 J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee 77% 95% 18%

The guys dropping like flies

Micah Owings, SP, Arizona
Week 15 Ownership: 69 percent
Week 16 Ownership: 59 percent
Rank in NL Most Dropped: 1st
The Skinny: Owings has been on the schneid since late April, but owners finally started to say "enough" after he gave up seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Royals on June 15. His last three starts have been his best stretch since mid-May, but Owings' ownership numbers have continued to plummet. From a performance perspective, it look like he has had a very inconsistent season, but his skills have been solid throughout the first half. While Owings' strikeout, walk and home run numbers have been consistently good game-by-game, he has been inconsistent within games, prone to letting his opponents have one or two big innings. This clumping of baserunners in a few innings accounts for his ERC being in the low 4.00s while his actual ERA is in the low 5.00s. As long as Owings keeps this pattern up, only NL-only owners can afford to roster him, but owners in all leagues should monitor his progress. With greater consistency, Owings will likely have stats that resemble those of Zack Greinke (7-5, 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), a pitcher who is equally skilled but much steadier.

Year Team BB/9 K/9 HR/9 H/BIP ERC
2006 Tucson (Triple-A) 3.5 6.2 0.4 N/A N/A
2007 Arizona 3.0 6.3 1.2 28% 4.13
2008 Arizona 3.1 7.5 1.1 29% 4.27

Others wearing roster repellant

Rank Player Week 15 ownership Week 16 ownership Percentage change
2 Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atlanta 90% 81% - 9%
2 Eric Stults, SP, L.A. Dodgers 31% 22% - 9%
2 Russell Branyan, 3B, Milwaukee 26% 17% - 9%
5 Todd Wellemeyer, SP, St. Louis 85% 77% - 8%
5 Mark Hendrickson, SP, Florida 26% 18% - 8%
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.