The Troy Trojans and Appalachian State Mountaineers are coming in hot when they face off Saturday in the 2023 Sun Belt Championship Game in Troy, Ala. The Trojans (10-2, 7-1) are on a nine-game win streak after beating Southern Miss 35-17 last Saturday. Troy is the defending champion after beating Coastal Carolina 45-16 at their Veterans Memorial Stadium home last year. Now the Trojans host the Mountaineers (8-4, 6-2), who are in the game as a replacement for SBC East winner James Madison, which is transitioning to FBS and was ineligible.

Saturday's kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium. The Trojans are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Appalachian State vs. Troy odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 53, according to the SportsLine consensus. Before making any Troy vs. Appalachian State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on App. State vs. Troy and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Troy vs. App. State: 

  • Appalachian State vs. Troy spread: Trojans -5.5
  • Appalachian State vs. Troy over/under: 53 points
  • Appalachian State vs. Troy money line: Mountaineers +182, Trojans -223
  • APP: Is 5-11 ATS in its past 16 conference games.
  • TROY: Is 14-3 ATS in SBC matchups since 2022.
  • Appalachian State vs. Troy picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Appalachian State vs. Troy live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Troy can cover

The Trojans have the Sun Belt's best defense and will have the crowd behind them as they seek the repeat. Troy allows 16.7 points and 300 total yards per game, both top-12 in FBS. The defense had six sacks last week to give them 39 this season, sixth-most in the nation. Javon Solomon has 14, tied for most in FBS. Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson and running back Kimani Vidal pace an offense that averages 423 yards and almost 30 points per game.

Wilson has 3,161 passing yards, with 26 TDs and five interceptions, and four receivers have topped 400 yards. Chris Lewis averages 22 yards on 29 receptions, with nine going for touchdowns. Vidal is seventh in the nation with 1,349 rushing yards and has scored 10 TDs. Troy has covered the spread in seven of its past eight games, with all seven victories by at least 18 points. The Trojans' only home loss this season came to James Madison, which is 11-1. See which team to pick here.

Why Appalachian State can cover

The Mountaineers handed James Madison its only loss, and they have been in this position before. They have played in three of the five SBC title games, winning the first two. Quarterback Joey Aguilar threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns in the 26-23 overtime victory against the Dukes two weeks ago. He has 33 TD passes, third-most in FBS, and 3.233 passing yards. Receivers Kaedin Robinson and Christian Horn have combined for 1,219 yards and 16 TDs.

Appalachian State averages 458 yards per game, 15th-most in FBS, while Troy averages 423 (43rd). The Mountaineers have beaten Troy seven times in eight tries as SBC foes, and they have scored at least 32 points in the past four meetings. ASU has covered the spread in four straight, and while the defense isn't as strong as Troy's, it makes big plays. The Mountaineers have at least two takeaways in four straight and have 21 this season, most in the Sun Belt. See which team to pick here.

How to make Appalachian State vs. Troy picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 48 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Troy vs. Appalachian State, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.