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The New England Patriots are looking to get the train back on the tracks. After drafting Mac Jones in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and watching as the rookie quarterback helped lead the team back to the postseason, things went sideways in 2022. 

The unorthodox approach with the offensive coaching staff threw New England's ascension under Jones off-kilter, but it does appear like Bill Belichick has righted the wrong of last season over the last few months. The team has hired Bill O'Brien as its offensive coordinator and added some high-upside pieces at the skill positions to add a different dynamic to the unit. 

Now, as the NFL has unveiled its full schedule for the 2023 regular season, it's time to see if this reset will produce a team that can get above .500 and contend for the playoffs once more. The road won't be easy, however, New England faces the third-toughest strength of schedule in the NFL this coming year with their opponents' combined win percentage from last season sitting at .549. That reflects their current win total projection, as Caesars Sportsbook has them sitting at 7.5 wins for 2023. 

Below, we'll comb through the entire 18-game slate for New England, highlight key games, the club's toughest stretch, and finally go game-by-game to predict how this season will shake out. 

WEEKOPPONENTDATETIMETV

1

vs. Eagles

Sept. 10

4:25 p.m. ET

CBS

2

vs. Dolphins

Sept. 17

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

3

at Jets

Sept. 24

1 p.m. ET

CBS

4

at Cowboys

Oct. 1

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

5

vs. Saints

Oct. 8

1 p.m. ET

CBS

6

at Raiders

Oct. 15

4:05 p.m. ET

CBS

7

vs. Bills

Oct. 22

1 p.m. ET

CBS

8

at Dolphins

Oct. 29

1 p.m. ET

CBS

9

vs. Commanders

Nov. 5

1 p.m. ET

FOX

10

vs. Colts (Fankfurt Stadium, Germany)

Nov. 12

9:30 a.m. ET

NFL Network

11

BYE




12

at Giants

Nov. 26

1 p.m. ET

FOX

13

vs. Chargers

Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET

CBS

14

at Steelers

Dec. 7

8:15 p.m. ET

PRIME

15

vs. Chiefs

Dec. 18

8:15 p.m. ET

ESPN

16

at Broncos

Dec. 24

8:15 p.m. ET

NFL Network

17

at Bills

Dec. 31

1 p.m. ET

CBS

18

vs. Jets

TBD

TBD

TBD

Key schedule observations

  • The Patriots are looking at four prime-time games, including a three-week stretch in front of the country from Week 14-16. That also includes a Christmas Eve matchup with the Broncos that will air on NFL Network.
  • In Week 1, the Patriots will hold a halftime ceremony to honor Tom Brady
  • This is the first time that the Patriots have kicked off the season at home against an NFC opponent since 2000 (Buccaneers). The last time New England began the year against an NFC team came back in 2020 when they visited the Cardinals in Arizona. 
  • This is the first time since 1995 that the Patriots have opened up the year with back-to-back home games. 
  • The Patriots will play both Super Bowl teams this season (Eagles in Week 1, Chiefs in Week 15). 
  • In Week 10, the Patriots will be heading to Germany for their international matchup with the Indianapolis Colts. It is noteworthy that New England's bye week will come after this game in Week 11 instead of before it in Week 9, which could have been an option. 
  • The Patriots have zero games against opponents coming off a bye week.

Toughest stretch

New England's toughest stretch could very well be the first month of the year. While they do have the luxury of starting the 2022 campaign with back-to-back home games, their opponents consist of the NFC Champion Eagles and a Miami Dolphins team that sports a quarterback in Tua Tagovalia who is 4-0 against the Patriots in his career. After that, they go on the road to MetLife Stadium to get their first taste of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets and then head to Dallas to face the Cowboys. 

  • Week 1 -- vs. Eagles
  • Week 2 -- vs. Dolphins
  • Week 3 -- at Jets 
  • Week 4 -- at Cowboys

Judging by the roster talent of those four teams, going .500 over that stretch would feel like a mini-miracle. If they find themselves going 0-4 over that stretch (which feels like a possibility), they'll have created a massive hole for themselves out of the gate. 

Meanwhile, the back half of the year when the Patriots will face the Chiefs at home, travel to Denver, travel to Buffalo, and host the Jets to end the regular season is another rough stretch where they may not be favored in a single matchup.  

Pivotal matchups

You can read more about New England's top-five must-see games in 2023 here, but here's a quick rundown: 

  1. Week 1 vs. Eagles
  2. Week 3 at Jets
  3. Week 10 vs. Colts
  4. Week 6 at Raiders
  5. Week 15 vs. Chiefs

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Eagles

  • Spread: Eagles -5
  • Opponent O/U win total: 10.5

I think the Patriots surprisingly keep this game close with the defending NFC Champions. Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien will have all summer to revamp their offense and come up with a cohesive attack out of the gate. Historically, the Super Bowl runner-up has also struggled in this spot. Since Super Bowl XXXIV, the runner-up has gone 8-14 in Week 1, and that number is even worse (4-18) against the spread. With the home-field advantage and Tom Brady in the stands, the Patriots hang tough and keep it close, but Philly is still too good to be upset. 

Prediction: Eagles 27, Patriots 24
Record: 0-1

Week 2: vs. Dolphins

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

Miami has been a thorn in New England's side for years, and I don't expect that to change in this matchup. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be healthy to begin the year, and if he's under center he should continue his success against the Patriots. The young QB is 4-0 against Bill Belichick in his career and has plenty of speedy weapons at his disposal, headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Those two may be too much for this young secondary to contain this early in this season. 

Prediction: Dolphins 30, Patriots 24
Record: 0-2

Week 3: at Jets

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

After dropping the first two games of the season at home, the Patriots head to Mr. Rodgers' neighborhood -- also known as MetLife Stadium. New England gets its first glimpse of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, and the four-time league MVP comes out of the gate hot with his new team. Rodgers and the Jets use this game as a statement to decree that they are no longer the bottom-dwellers of the division. New York gets a rare win over Bill Belichick, who drops to 0-3 on the year.  

Prediction: Jets 28, Patriots 20
Record: 0-3

Week 4: at Cowboys

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

The Patriots finally get into the win column with an upset over the Cowboys in Dallas. Belichick simply out-coaches Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys commit a handful of self-inflicted mistakes that prove to be their demise. This is also a classic lookahead game for Dallas, which will visit the 49ers (the team that's eliminated them from the playoffs in each of the past two seasons) on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 5.  

Prediction: Patriots 27, Cowboys 23
Record: 1-3

Week 5: vs. Saints

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

Riding high from that upset in Dallas, the Patriots return home to give their home crowd its first victory of the year. New Orleans should be a much easier opponent than what New England had to deal with over the first month, even if the Saints have improved their quarterback play with Derek Carr. Even as the Carr-led Raiders edged out the win last season, Belichick was able to give Carr fits in that matchup last season. That should continue here. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Raiders 24
Record: 2-3

Week 6: at Raiders

  • Opponent O/U win total: 7.5

Speaking of the Raiders, the Patriots head back to Allegiant Stadium for the second time in as many seasons. Of course, New England coughed up this head-to-head last season at the last second, and it avenges that loss with a solid showing from the defense that keeps Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams at bay. What's that? A winning streak, you say? After a rough opening stretch, the Patriots claw back to .500.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Raiders 20
Record: 3-3

Week 7: vs. Bills

  • Opponent O/U win total: 10.5

New England's winning streak comes to an end after a sobering loss here to Buffalo. The Bills come into Foxborough and show they are still the top threat in the AFC East with a dazzling display from Josh Allen. The Patriots are feisty, but this game hammers home that there is still a ways to go before stacking up against the AFC's elite. 

Prediction: Bills 35, Patriots 23
Record: 3-4

Week 8: at Dolphins

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

I think the Patriots split the season series with Miami, so let's pencil them in for a rare win at Hard Rock Stadium after the Dolphins were able to clip them in Week 2. This game will be close, but New England's defense is able to silence Miami's speedy weapons just enough to head back to the Northeast back to .500. 

Prediction: Patriots 23, Dolphins 21
Record: 4-4

Week 9: vs. Commanders

  • Opponent O/U win total: 6.5

Out of each game the Patriots play this season, I think most would agree that Week 9 at home against Washington is their most winnable game on paper. The Commanders are set to trot out Sam Howell as their starting quarterback, and Bill Belichick has routinely feasted on rookie/first-year quarterback. I don't expect Howell to be the exception to that rule. This game could be a matchup where the defense helps out the offensive side of the ball with some points of its own. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Commanders 17
Record: 5-4

Week 10: vs. Colts (in Germany)

  • Opponent O/U win total: 6.5

The Patriots will play an early-morning game for those watching in Foxborough when they take on the Colts in Germany. While this game will have the novelty of being on the international stage, this is a head-to-head that New England should come back to the U.S. victorious. Not only is Indy expected to play a rookie quarterback at this point in No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson, but it also has a first-year head coach in Shane Steichen. That's a formula for the Patriots -- who are 3-0 in international games in their history -- to dominate. 

Prediction: Patriots 33, Colts 20
Record: 6-4

Week 12: at Giants

  • Opponent O/U win total: 8.5

While a midseason bye week is certainly welcomed by the players (especially after playing out of the country), I do think it has the potential to take the wind out of New England's sails just a bit. After beating up on some inferior opponents, the Patriots travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the Giants, who should be even more competitive than last year's playoff club thanks to some savvy moves this offseason. On top of Brian Daboll pushing all the right buttons on offense, Wink Martindale's blitz-happy defense could exploit New England's weakness up front along the offensive line. 

Prediction: Giants 27, Patriots 20
Record: 6-5

Week 13: vs. Chargers

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

At some point, Justin Herbert needs to look like Justin Herbert against the Patriots, right? The quarterback is 0-2 against Belichick in his career and has completed just 50% of his throws against New England. Herbert is too talented for this to occur for the third consecutive time, so we expect him to play more like the superstar QB we're accustomed to, which is bad news for a New England team that continues to seesaw around .500. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Patriots 21
Record: 6-6

Week 14: at Steelers

  • Opponent O/U win total: 8.5

New England doesn't have much time to think about its loss to the Chargers, as it'll play on a short week in Week 14, taking on the Steelers for "Thursday Night Football." Pittsburgh should be better in 2023 with Kenny Pickett having a year under his belt, and you can expect this to be your typical Patriots-Steelers grind of a game that Belichick and company barely eke out. 

Prediction: Patriots 23, Steelers 21
Record: 7-6

Week 15: vs. Chiefs

  • Opponent O/U win total: 11.5

Thanks to the Thursday game in Week 14, the Patriots will be coming into this "Monday Night Football" game fresh off a mini-bye. They'll certainly need all the rest they can get when they take on a Chiefs team that'll likely be contending for the No. 1 seed in the AFC once again at this point in the year. While the Patriots have been a tough out for most of the year, it's apparent that they are still not among the top tier in the conference. This loss at home to Kansas City is another reminder of that. 

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Patriots 23
Record: 7-7

Week 16: at Broncos

  • Opponent O/U win total: 8.5

I think the Broncos will be better with Sean Payton leading them as head coach, but still not among the best teams in the AFC. This Christmas Eve head-to-head does come at a rough point for Denver as they come home after a three-game road trip with the most recent game being played in Detroit against the Lions. It's a tight back and forth with two Hall of Fame coaches pulling the strings on each sideline, but the Patriots put a W in their stocking. 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Broncos 24
Record: 8-7

Week 17: at Bills

  • Opponent O/U win total: 10.5

I expect the AFC to be very tight at the top from wire to wire, which means teams like the Bills will be playing out the final few weeks to try and secure the No. 1 seed. With that in mind, this should be a hectic environment for the Patriots as they go to Buffalo to take on a loaded Bills club. As we saw in their head-to-head earlier in the season, they are simply the more talented team with an MVP-caliber quarterback. 

Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 21
Record: 8-8

Week 18: vs. Jets

  • Opponent O/U win total: 9.5

This game could go either way. If the Jets have their playoff spot secure, they could opt to rest their starters, which would give the Patriots the opportunity to finish above .500. If they are playing for their postseason lives, however, Rodgers will be giving it maximum effort, which is no easy mountain to climb if you're the Patriots defense. 

Prediction: Jets 28, Patriots 20
Record: 8-9