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Everyone knows that Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. After just five seasons as a full-time starter, the face of the Chiefs already has a strong case for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But the AFC, which houses his powerhouse Chiefs, is increasingly a hotbed for the league's top young talent at the position. Eight of the top 10 players -- and seven of the first eight -- in CBS Sports' first edition of 2023 QB Power Rankings reside in the conference.

Bills star Josh Allen recently said on "Kyle Brandt's Basement" that Mahomes is "kind of the clear No. 1 [in the AFC] right now," at least until someone else in the conference actually wins a Super Bowl. But it's safe to say Mahomes isn't alone among superstar signal-callers in the fight to represent the AFC in the big game. Between Allen, the Bengals' Joe Burrow, the Chargers' Justin Herbert and even new Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, which of Mahomes' peers is actually closest to contending for the title of top AFC passer?

To assess this, here's a look at all 16 of the AFC's projected 2023 quarterbacks, with their key numbers of the last five seasons, which is how long Mahomes has been Kansas City's full-time starter:

QBTeamStartsRecordTDsINTsRatingPlayoffsSBsMVPs

Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs

79

63-16

192

48

106.0

11-3

2-12

Joe Burrow

Bengals

42

24-17-1

82

31

100.4

5-2

0-10
Aaron RodgersJets8153-27-1
16227103.22-3N/A2
Josh AllenBills76
52-24
1386092.24-4N/A0
Russell WilsonBroncos7743-34
14742101.91-3N/A0
Ryan TannehillTitans6641-25
1064299.42-3N/A0

Lamar Jackson

Ravens

61

45-16

101

38

96.7

1-3

N/A0
Deshaun WatsonBrowns5328-259233102.21-2N/A0

Justin Herbert

Chargers

49

25-24

94

35

96.2

0-1

N/A0

Jimmy Garoppolo

Raiders

50

33-17

75

37

99.6

4-2

0-10
Trevor LawrenceJaguars34
12-22
372583.41-1N/A0

Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins

34

21-13

52

23

95.0

N/A

N/A0
Mac JonesPatriots3116-15362489.0
0-1N/A0
Kenny PickettSteelers127-57976.7N/AN/A0
C.J. StroudTexansN/A






Anthony RichardsonColtsN/A






Obviously the first word must be a reminder that every QB is, at least to some degree, a product of the team around him. Mahomes certainly benefitted from a playoff-caliber supporting cast upon arrival, whereas, for example, Lawrence took a major leap in 2022 after enduring a shoddy setup and coaching staff as a rookie. We should also say that, if we were considering all-time production as opposed to just the last five seasons, future Hall of Fame candidates like Rodgers and Wilson would be more surefire picks to contend for the label of AFC's best QB entering 2023. The game is fast-changing, however, so recency bias is necessary.

The thing separating Mahomes from the rest of the pack most is the absurd playoff resume: 14 postseason games (with all but three wins) and three Super Bowl appearances in five years. That's Tom Brady-level historic. His touchdown output is also only rivaled by Rodgers; despite starting nearly as many games since 2018, perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen has thrown 54 fewer scores than the Chiefs star. Of course, Allen also offers more on the ground, but if you're looking for an even clearer rival to Mahomes, it's Burrow. Even though Burrow's first year came on a rebuilding team and ended early due to injury, he's had the second-best big-game impact of any QB since 2018, logging five playoff wins and making two AFC title games in his first five years.

So Burrow has the cleanest path to actually challenging Mahomes, and it helps he's already beaten the Chiefs multiple times, including to reach the Super Bowl. If he stays on his current trajectory, all he really needs is time to truly close the gap. An actual Super Bowl bid would also skyrocket Allen's chances of unseating Mahomes as the AFC's premier talent, but there's not another young signal-caller who's positioned to make such a big-picture leap: Herbert and Watson's production hasn't yet translated to crunch-time results, Tannehill and Garoppolo are both aging and dependent on run-first offenses, Lawrence is just coming into his own, and both Jackson and Tagovailoa have glaring medical concerns despite flashes of MVP stuff.

The true wild card is the AFC's biggest newcomer: Aaron Rodgers. Even including a disappointing 2022 season and relatively underwhelming recent playoff record, Rodgers has stayed in Mahomes' ballpark of recent passing production, while starring as the center of a regular-season powerhouse. Now, going on 40, he's banking on a Brady-level relocation to a franchise desperate to cater to his every desire. If the new scenery sparks a revival as it did with Brady, then there's an actual case to be made that Rodgers, even at such a late stage of his career, and even if only for a brief time, could challenge Mahomes as the AFC's top dog.