Just four weeks remain in the regular season and it'll be a mad dash to the finish line as clubs jockey for playoff position, adding a little more spice to picks down the stretch. I'll be looking to end the year on a strong note after I've hung just a tick over .500 on my picks over the last few weeks. While that's certainly better than losing more bets than we win, there's room for us to cash in as we close out the regular season.
This week, I'm backing three home dogs inside my locks of the week, including a Texans team that nearly earned a straight-up win over the Cowboys, who we'll be fading in Week 15. Before we get into my locks and the rest of my picks for this upcoming slate -- which includes three Saturday games -- let's take a quick look at where I stand on the year as a whole.
2022 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 32-34-4
ATS: 94-107-7
ML: 128-78-2
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Patriots at Raiders
New England has a knack for taking advantage of team's mistakes and having that catapult them to victory and that's exactly what happened on Monday against Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins had a careless fumble that was scooped up and taken into the end zone, which completely flipped the script of that game in the Patriots' favor. Outside of that, it was another game where the New England offense looked completely lost. Mac Jones was visibly frustrated and was facing a solid amount of pressure due to poor play at the tackle spots. That weakness along the O-line will only be highlighted further with Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones firing off the edge for Las Vegas and let's not forget that Josh McDaniels has intimate knowledge of Jones and the rest of the Pats offense. The Raiders are certainly capable of making self-destructive mistakes that could be their undoing, but New England's offense is too lost to trust.
Projected score: Raiders 24, Patriots 21
The pick: Raiders +1
Cowboys at Jaguars
Don't look now, but Trevor Lawrence is starting to look like a No. 1 overall pick. Over the last five games, the Jags QB has been a top-five player at his position. His completion percentage (72%) and TD-INT ratio (10-0) rank first among quarterbacks over that stretch and his passer rating (111.7) and passing yards per game (272.4) also rank top five in the league. Jacksonville will need Lawrence to continue this breakout as it faces a Cowboys team that is averaging an NFL-best 35.7 points per game since Dak Prescott returned from his thumb injury in Week 7.
While the Cowboys boast a top-flight offense and arguably the best defense in the league, they've had a theme of playing down to their competition at times this season, including last week against Houston where they nearly lost as a 16.5-point favorite. You'd think that a scare like that would focus the Cowboys even more against the Jaguars, but there's also the chance that Jacksonville could catch them looking ahead to their mega-matchup against the Eagles in Week 16. This game feels like it'll be within a field goal, which happily allows me to grab the Jags at +4.5.
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Jaguars 24
The pick: Jaguars +4
Lions at Jets
If you had told me over the summer that Lions-Jets would be the game to watch once Week 15 rolls around, I would've laughed in your face but here we are. This head-to-head at MetLife Stadium has MASSIVE playoff implications for both conferences as each of these teams are within striking distance of leaping into the postseason picture.
While Detroit has been the darling of the NFL over the last few weeks (6-0 ATS), don't overlook what New York has put together. The Jets are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games and have a defense that ranks sixth in DVOA this season. That unit should be able to hold down what has been a white-hot Lions offense. While Detroit's offense has played well, Jared Goff is a much worse quarterback on the road than he is at Ford Field. He's thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) on the road this season and his team is averaging just 18.4 points per game on the road (32.1 ppg at home). With Mike White expected to play in this game, the Jets offense should be able to move the ball enough to pull out the win here.
Projected score: Jets 27, Lions 23
The pick: Jets PK
Dolphins at Bills
Has the NFL figured out how to stop the Dolphins offense? Sure looks like it. Over the last two weeks, Miami has been held in check offensively as defenses have pressed receivers but then have dropped back into zone with two high safeties and no blitz. That has worked extremely well as the Dolphins have dropped two straight and the offense has screeched to a halt. Their 46% completion percentage is the lowest in the NFL over this stretch and their yards-per-attempt average has dropped to 7.2 from 9.0. That blueprint plays well into the Bills' hands as they play press coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (80%).
Not only is there now a path to figuring out this offense but the weather is also expected to be a factor in this game as well. The early forecast calls for 28 degrees and 16 mph winds. Tua Tagovailoa has never played an NFL game in freezing temperatures but is 0-4 with a 61.6 passer rating in the four coldest games of his career. Those factors have me laying the points and rolling with the Bills.
Projected score: Bills 28, Dolphins 20
The pick: Bills -7.5
Chiefs at Texans
Basically, the same lesson as last week when we took the Texans at +17 -- when the number equals or exceeds two touchdowns, it's more often than not the safer play to just take the points, especially when it's a home dog. Dating to the start of last season, home underdogs of 14+ are 5-0 ATS and have won outright twice. To shrink that even lower, home dogs of 11+ are 11-2 ATS. See my point?
While I certainly expect the Chiefs to win this matchup, Houston should be able to keep this within the number either by playing K.C. tight for four quarters as it did against Dallas or via the backdoor. The Texans defense isn't something to trifle with either as it has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. It also ranks fourth in pressure rate, fifth in lowest completion percentage allowed and eighth in lowest passer rating allowed.
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Texans 17
The pick: Texans +14
Rest of the bunch
49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: 49ers 23, Seahawks 21
The pick: Seahawks +3
Colts at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 27, Colts 20
The pick: Vikings -4
Ravens at Browns
Projected score: Ravens 24, Browns 21
The pick: Ravens +3
Eagles at Bears
Projected score: Eagles 30, Bears 23
The pick: Bears +9
Falcons at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Falcons +4
Steelers at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 23, Steelers 17
The pick: Panthers -2.5
Cardinals at Broncos
Projected score: Cardinals 23, Broncos 21
The pick: Cardinals +3
Titans at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 24, Titans 23
The pick: Titans +3
Bengals at Buccaneers
Projected score: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Bengals -3.5
Giants at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 27, Giants 21
The pick: Commanders -4.5
Rams at Packers, Monday
Projected score: Packers 27, Rams 17
The pick: Packers -7
