Welcome to what could be the most fun week of the 2022 NFL season. Here in the divisional round, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will play their first postseason football against a couple of playoff darlings that scored upset victories in the first round. Remember, the No. 1 seeds in both conferences lost in the divisional round last year. Who knows what could happen?
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals weren't able to cover the spread in Super Wild Card Weekend despite facing off against backup quarterbacks. Now, they are up against each other in what could end up being the game of the year. To cap the weekend, we get Dak Prescott vs. Brock Purdy. Both quarterbacks were very impressive in the first round. Can they keep it up?
Which teams will make our NFL final four? Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Playoff ATS record: 3-3
Playoff straight up record: 6-0
Top five picks ATS record: 43-45-1
Overall ATS record: 135-129-7
Straight up record: 177-92-2
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
These two teams faced off in Week 10 earlier this season, with the Chiefs winning by 10 points. It was interesting, as the Jaguars were +3 in the turnover battle, yet still lost by double digits. Star tight end Travis Kelce is one of the X factors here, as the best tight end in the game is going up against a defense that struggles to contain versatile tight ends. The Jaguars allowed the third-most receiving yards (1,087) and the third-most yards per reception (13.1) to tight ends this season. The Chiefs have won six straight games vs. the Jaguars, and I have them winning this week as well. Now comes the issue of the spread.
I feel like we are going to get a backdoor cover one way or another, and this line is the perfect teaser leg. I've gone back and forth on this pick, but I'm going to take the points with the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, and underdogs went 4-2 ATS on Super Wild Card Weekend -- which honestly was shocking.
The pick: Jaguars +8.5
Projected score: Chiefs 30-24
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Eagles defeated the Giants by 26 points in December, and then by six points earlier this month. What kind of Eagles team are we going to get this weekend? To start off, I have the Eagles winning this game. Let's get that out of the way now. As I predicted last week, the Minnesota Vikings' porous defense made the Giants offense look better than it actually is. The Eagles are a different beast. Plus, New York has lost in nine straight trips to Philadelphia.
The Giants were/are the best team to bet on this season against the spread. They are 14-4 ATS on the year, and an incredible 8-1 ATS on the road this season. If you're going to give me the hook, I'm prone to take it. Even though I haven't handed my ticket to the conductor of the Giants hype train, it's hard not to be intrigued by this team's postseason history. I mean, the Giants are 8-1 SU as a playoff underdog since 2007! My head tells me Eagles, but my heart wants the underdog Giants. I can satisfy both by predicting the Eagles win by exactly seven points.
The pick: Giants +7.5
Projected score: Eagles 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I'm sure everyone is excited that we get this game. Last time these two teams played, we all witnessed the unfortunate Damar Hamlin incident. Thankfully, he's recovered enough where both teams have been able to refocus on football. Discounting the canceled matchup earlier this year, this is the first meeting between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
This is probably the game of the weekend. It's the first playoff matchup between two teams that are on winning streaks of at least eight games since the 2016 AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. I have to say, I'm surprised this spread is what it is. When it opened at Bills -4, I really thought it would be bet down. Nope.
I expected both the Bills and Bengals to blow out their opponents on Super Wild Card Weekend. Buffalo's matchup against the Miami Dolphins surprised me in particular, as Allen turned the ball over three times. This year, he became the first player to lead the NFL in turnovers and make the playoffs since Eli Manning in 2007. By the way, Manning won the Super Bowl that year.
If you've been keeping up with my postseason bracket, the Bills are my official Super Bowl pick. I think it also helps in this matchup that the Bengals are dealing with multiple injuries on the offensive line with Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams, and then La'el Collins has already been ruled out for the year. With that said, I find myself wanting to take the points with the Bengals. Am I hedging my Bills Super Bowl prediction? Maybe. But I also predicted the Bengals would cover the spread in Super Bowl LVI against the Los Angeles Rams, and lose by exactly three points.
The pick: Bengals +5.5
Projected score: Bills 28-24
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
If Bills-Bengals is the game of the week, this is a close second. I don't know how much I want to point to last year's playoff matchup between these two teams, because I have more faith in Brock Purdy compared to Jimmy Garoppolo. "Mr. Irrelevant" can become just the third rookie quarterback to win multiple games in a single postseason, and leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.3), passing touchdowns (14) and passer rating (121.4) since his first career start in Week 14. With Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and the No. 1 defense in the NFL, Purdy has everything he needs to make a run.
While it was fair to be wary of the Cowboys entering the postseason, Dak Prescott and Co. really impressed against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Prescott accounted for five total touchdowns, which set a Cowboys postseason record. Still, I have more faith in the 49ers as a whole. I'm going to hold my breath and take them to cover the spread Sunday, as San Francisco furthers its case as a Super Bowl favorite heading into championship weekend.
The pick: 49ers -4
Projected score: 49ers 26-21
