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The Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars will face off on Super Wild Card Weekend on Saturday night, as the two will battle for a potential date with the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence battled in Week 3 earlier this year, with the Jaguars leaving California with a 38-10 victory. Are the Chargers due for some revenge?

Believe it or not, the Jaguars may have some home-field advantage. They have won four straight home games, despite trailing by at least nine points in each contest. The fans showed up for the win-and-in showdown against the Tennessee Titans, and the Jaguars did not let them down, scoring a game-winning defensive touchdown to clinch the AFC South for the first time since 2017.

Below, we will examine the different betting angles for this matchup. We will provide picks from both CBS Sports and SportsLine experts on this AFC showdown, as well as a few player props we view as enticing. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch 

Date: Saturday, Jan. 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: TIAA Bank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
TV: 
NBC | Stream: FuboTV (try for free)
Odds: Chargers -1.5, O/U 47

Chargers at Jaguars spread picks

"Although the Chargers have been bad at stopping the run, the Jags have been even worse at stopping the pass. Justin Herbert might throw for 500 yards on Saturday and that's because he'll be going up against a Jaguars defense that has surrendered the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this year. 

"The Jaguars defense won't be able to stop the Chargers passing game, the Chargers defense won't be able to stop the Jaguars ground game, and now that I'm saying this out loud, I feel like this is going to turn into a shootout. 

"This could be the craziest game of the wild-card round, and I'm kind of split here with my pick, but after watching the Chargers go 1-3 in outdoor games this year -- a record that would have been 0-4 if the Browns didn't miss a 53-yard field goal in the final seconds -- I'm going to have to roll with the Jags. That is not a typo. I am picking Jacksonville to win a playoff game.

"I just have this sinking feeling that the Chargers are going to find a way to Charger things up by making some sort of huge mistake late in the game. A missed field goal? A late fumble? An interception? I'm not exactly sure what it will be, but whatever it is, we'll all feel sorry for the Chargers when it happens, and it will only get more awkward when Jaxson De Ville celebrates the miscue while wearing a speedo."

CBS Sports legend John Breech is taking the underdog to win this game straight up. To read his wild card column, click here.

"This is a game featuring two of the best young quarterback in the league. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence will both be playing in their first playoff game, but I don't think that will matter. The Jaguars dominated the Chargers in blowing them out in Week 3, but this will be a lot closer. Both passing games should have big days, so it should be a shootout. Look for the Jaguars to make one more big play to win it as Lawrence wins the first of his battles with Herbert."

CBS Sports senior NFL writer Pete Prisco is also riding with the Jaguars in the wild-card round. To read his breakdown of every game, click here

"There are bound to be a couple of upsets this weekend, and I'll circle the Jags pulling off the win at home over the Chargers as one of them. Personally, this is the matchup I'm most excited about this weekend. You have two of the brightest young quarterbacks duking it out in their first-ever playoff games. These two teams did meet earlier this season, and Trevor Lawrence outplayed Justin Herbert by throwing three touchdowns and registering a 115.5 passer rating in a 38-10 victory. 

"While Jacksonville's offense was a bit up and down in the AFC South-clinching win over the Titans last week, the defense was stellar. And it wasn't a one-off, either. Over the past five weeks, Jacksonville's defense has held opponents to just 15.6 points per game. To its credit, L.A. has been just as good over that same stretch, allowing 15 points per game. So with their quarterbacks and defenses playing roughly the same, what's the tiebreaker? Coaching. And I'll gladly side with Doug Pederson over Brandon Staley here."

Tyler Sullivan also likes the Jaguars this week, pointing to the coaching matchup. To read his wild-card column, click here


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Pete Prisco
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Jason La Canfora
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Will Brinson
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Jared Dubin
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Ryan Wilson
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John Breech
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Dave Richard
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Jamey Eisenberg
Chargers (-2.5) at Jaguars

Chargers at Jaguars total picks

Before you make any Chargers vs. Jaguars picks or any other NFL predictions, you need to see which side Mike Tierney is on. A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He entered the 2022 NFL season 232-204-10 against-the-spread since the start of the 2018 season. In addition, he is an amazing 33-14 on his last 47 picks in games involving the Jaguars, returning nearly $1,800. 

We can tell you he's leaning Under the total, but to check out his ATS pick, head on over to SportsLine.

Meanwhile, here's what the SportsLine Projection Model is projecting. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Super Wild Card Weekend in the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 161-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 15-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.

The model knows that Los Angeles has one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert. The model also has factored in that quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his young career. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, Lawrence has thrown 15 touchdown passes versus just two interceptions since Week 9. Jacksonville is 7-2 over that time.

Now, the model has set its sights on Super Wild Card Weekend and Chargers vs. Jaguars. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, but to see everything the model has to say, head on over to Sportsline.

"The Chargers went 7-9-1 to the Over this season, while the Jaguars were closer to .500 at 8-9. The 48 collective points they scored earlier this season in that Week 3 matchup hit the Over, but I'm leaning Under in this matchup. Maybe both teams come out a little gun-shy to start the playoffs."

CBS Sports' Jordan Dajani is leaning Under on this matchup. To read his opinions on this week's lines, click here

Player props

Trevor Lawrence passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-115). Lawrence hasn't hit this number in three straight games, throwing just one touchdown in his last three regular-season games. That's probably why the juice is the way it is. I think he gets two this weekend. He threw three against the Chargers earlier this year. 

Travis Etienne receiving yards: Over 16.5 (-111). Etienne has crossed this number in each of his past four games. He's an explosive weapon who can cover this number on one screen pass. 

Austin Ekeler rushing yards: Over 52.5 (-119). Ekeler rushed for just five yards against the Jaguars earlier this season. It marked a season-low for him, and he also received a season-low touches in that Week 3 loss. The Chargers understand how important Ekeler is to the offense, so he should cross this number. He's hit this number in three out of the past four games.