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An AFC East clash will take place on 'Thursday Night Football' in Week 3 as the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. Miami (0-2) looked listless in its season opener, and while it played better in a Week 2 loss to New England, the team is still 0-2 for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, Buffalo (2-0) had a miraculous comeback victory in Week 1 before easily handling the Jets on Sunday. Bills coach Sean McDermott is 9-0 all-time at home versus the Dolphins, including the playoffs.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Buffalo is the 11.5-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, making them the biggest favorite of the 2025 NFL season if the line holds. The over/under for total points is 50.5. Buffalo is a -826 favorite on the money line (risk $826 to win $100), while Miami is at +560 (risk $100 to win $560). Before making any Bills vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 37-17 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Miami vs. Buffalo. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bills vs. Dolphins:

Dolphins vs. Bills spread

Buffalo -11.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Dolphins vs. Bills over/under

50.5 points

Dolphins vs. Bills money line 

Buffalo -826, Miami +560

Dolphins vs. Bills picks

See picks at SportsLine

Dolphins vs. Bills streaming 

Amazon Prime

Why the Bills can cover

Josh Allen has been no match for Miami, especially as of late, as over his last six regular season games versus it, Allen has a 16:3 TD:INT. He's averaging 292.8 passing yards and 36.2 rushing yards over this stretch, while his counterpart, Tua Tagovailoa, has struggled versus the Bills. He has nine touchdowns versus 10 interceptions in his career against the NFC East rival, making the Bills just one of four teams that Tagovailoa has more picks than touchdowns against.

This season, the Buffalo offense has been among the best in football. It hasn't committed a turnover, ranks first in total offense and second in scoring offense. James Cook had 132 yards and two scores on the ground versus the Jets, including a 44-yard touchdown run. That was his fifth 40+ yard touchdown run since the start of 2024, which is the most of any player, and the Bills' defense is also doing its part. It held New York to just 154 total yards, which was 70 fewer yards than what Buffalo had on the ground (224) in Week 2. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Dolphins can cover

While the Bills have dominated the straight-up matchups between these teams, the same can't be said for the spread. The Bills have only one ATS victory over their last five home games versus Miami, and the Dolphins covered at Buffalo just last year. The Bills also have a clear wink link with their run defense, which ranks in the bottom two in both yards allowed and yards per carry given up. That's a unit that Dolphins running back De'Von Achane can exploit, as over his four career games versus Buffalo, he's averaging 116.8 scrimmage yards with six total touchdowns.

After a dreadful Week 1, the Dolphins offense finally found its footing in Week 2 as Tagovailoa had 315 yards and two passing scores, while Tyreek Hill had 109 yards on six receptions. Jaylen Waddle (68 yards) found the endzone through the air, and Miami got a huge special teams contribution as Malik Washington had a 74-yard punt return touchdown. Additionally, this massive spread is one that Buffalo has recently had trouble covering as the Bills are 2-5 ATS over their last seven games as double-digit favorites. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Bills vs. Dolphins picks

For the NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football game of Dolphins vs. Bills, the model is leaning over the total, and also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time in an A-rated pick. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Bills vs. Dolphins, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time in an A-rated pick? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Bills spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 37-17 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.