The Week 15 rematch between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will be the polar opposite of what occurred in the Dolphins' 21-19 victory over their AFC East rival in Week 3. Back in September down in Florida, Bills players were seen gasping for air and appearing winded in the Miami humidity. However, the Bills have the home-field and climate advantage as Saturday night's game is expected to have a temperature of 28 degrees, marking Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's first game in freezing weather.
He is winless in the four coldest games he has started with a passer rating of just 61.4. In those games, Tagovailoa has scored just three total touchdowns while turning the ball over six times, according to CBS Sports research.
Coldest games in Tua Tagovailoa's career
Two of Tagovailoa's cold-weather losses have come in Buffalo, but those games did not include his head coach and play-caller Mike McDaniel or wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has the second most receiving yards in the NFL this season with 1,460.
After four consecutive wins, the Bills are in position to clinch a playoff berth with a win against the rival Dolphins. Securing a playoff spot would give the franchise four straight playoff appearances for the first time since reeling off six straight from 1988-1993 in the Jim Kelly Era. The AFC's No. 1 seed is in their hands for now with an identical 9-3 record and the head-to-head edge against the Kansas CIty Chiefs, thanks to the 24-20 Week 6 road win. Do the Dolphins have what it takes to pull off their first season sweep of the Bills since 2016, delaying Buffalo's' AFC East supremacy once again? Or is this a decisive revenge victory for the host Bills?
Either way, it should be an exciting watch. Here's everything you need to know:
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Dec. 17 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: NFL+
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -7.5, O/U 44 (courtesy Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Dolphins have the ball
Two weeks ago, the Dolphins were surfing with an 8-3 record and holding first place in the AFC East while averaging the sixth most points per game in the NFL (25.6) as Tagovailoa put up NFL MVP numbers. However, the waves have come crashing down in Weeks 13 and 14 following consecutive road losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers. Tagovailoa's MVP candidacy has fallen into a ditch as his passer rating has declined from the best in the NFL to bottom 10 in the entire league.
The biggest shift in the Dolphins' last two games has been the way opponents have decided to defend their turbo-charged aerial attack led by wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Through Tagovailoa's first nine starts, teams only showed a two-high safety look 41% of the time, one that's designed to limit deep passes downfield, but now they're seeing it more than half the time at 61%. The blueprint defenses have been using to cause Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to have offensive struggles the last two games has been zone coverage on early downs to limit deep shots downfield and then getting a heavy dose of press-man coverage (85%) on third down.
While it may seem counterintuitive to use man coverage on "the money down" against Hill and Waddle, the two safeties back deep look has been effective in combination with those principles. If Hill gets going Saturday, he could break Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs' NFL record of 1,535 yards for the most receiving yards in a player's first season with a new team. He's only 76 yards away, 16 more than the 60-yard deep strike touchdown he had last week against the Chargers.
When the Bills have the ball
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is back in the zone. He has fully snapped out of his midseason rut in which he had more turnovers (7) than touchdowns (5) in a three-game stretch against the Packers, Jets and Vikings from Weeks 8-10. Weeks 11-14 have seen the Bills and their dual-threat dynamo bounce back in a major way with eight total touchdowns and only two turnovers during the Bills' four-game winning streak.
A huge emphasis for the Bills offense, as it is every week, will likely be getting Diggs the football. The All-Pro receiver had season-lows in catches (3) and receiving yards (37) in Buffalo's 20-12 win against the New York Jets. He's been the hub of the Bills passing game with 94 receptions, third-most in the NFL, while none of his teammates have more than 40 catches. Diggs accounts for 31.1% of Buffalo's receptions, the second most for any player's team catch percentage in the entire league behind only Hill's 34.4%.
Feeding Diggs should also help open things up underneath for Isaiah McKenzie and the Bills' newest old face, Cole Beasley. He signed on to Buffalo's practice squad after retiring in October after two weeks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his three seasons with the Bills from 2019-2021, Beasley was second on the team in receiving first downs with 124. Given the elements and the current funk the Dolphins offense has been going through against the combination coverage that has been thrown their way the last two weeks, Allen will have plenty of time to put up more than enough points to come away with a sweet revenge victory.
Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
