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The Denver Nuggets will look to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in team history when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 of the 2023 Western Conference finals on Monday. The Nuggets (53-29), who earned the top seed in the West for the first time, grabbed a 3-0 series lead with a 119-108 win on Saturday. The Lakers (43-39), who have reached the NBA Finals 32 times before, are tied with the Boston Celtics for the most league championships with 17. LA has won the previous seven playoff matchups with Denver, including a 4-1 series win in the 2020 West Finals.

The game from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is averaging 116.6 points per game in the playoffs, while Los Angeles averages 112.4. The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Lakers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 225.5. Before making any Lakers vs. Nuggets picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach. Hartstein also excels in NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 96 Denver matchups, he is 56-37-3 against the spread ($1,535 for $100 players). Anybody following those NBA picks has seen huge returns. 

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers:

  • Nuggets vs. Lakers spread: Lakers -3.5
  • Nuggets vs. Lakers over/under: 225.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Lakers money line: Nuggets +140, Lakers -165
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games following a straight-up win over more than 10 points
  • LAL: The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games
  • Nuggets vs. Lakers picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Lakers can cover 

Shooting guard Austin Reaves has scored 23 points in three of his last four playoff games, and had 22 in the other. In the Game 3 loss on Saturday, Reaves added seven rebounds and five assists. He has led the Lakers in scoring twice, in assists three times and steals once this postseason. In 15 playoff appearances, he is averaging 16.9 points, 4.7 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 35.9 minutes, after averaging 13 points, 3.4 assists and three rebounds in 64 regular-season games.

Power forward Rui Hachimura has been a spark off the bench as in 15 playoff games, he is averaging 12.3 points and 3.4 rebounds. He is coming off a 13-point and six-rebound performance in Game 3 which followed 21 points and two rebounds in Game 2. He has reached double-figure scoring in seven playoff games, including all three this series. See which team to back here.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver's offense revolves around MVP finalist Nikola Jokic. The dominant center has seven triple-doubles during the postseason, including four in the past five games. In the Game 3 victory over the Lakers, Jokic scored 24 points and added eight assists, six rebounds and one steal. Jokic is averaging 29.9 points in the playoffs, well over five points more than he averaged in the regular season. He is also averaging 13.2 rebounds and 10.1 assists this postseason.

Small forward Michael Porter Jr. posted his second double-double of the series on Saturday, scoring 14 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. He also dished out six assists and had one steal. Porter is averaging 15 points in the West Finals and 14.6 points and 7.9 rebounds in 14 postseason games. He has posted four double-doubles over the past seven games, including a 21-point and 12-rebound effort in the Western Conference semifinals Game 3 loss to the Phoenix Suns. See which team to back here.

How to make Lakers vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Over on the total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Lakers spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Lakers vs. Nuggets, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who has returned $1,535 to $100 players over his last 96 Denver Nuggets picks, and find out.